1. Market Assessment MBRRR Training Session 3.2

2. Market Assessment: Overview Objectives of market assessments CRS-recommended market assessment tools Minimum requirements for market analysis (CaLP) What do I do in an emergency? – Timing of assessments – Preparing for an assessment – Assessment methods Exercise and sample questions

3. Objectives of market assessment Assess the market’s capacity to meet demand before the emergency Explore the impact of the emergency on the market Estimate the market system’s capacity to contribute to emergency response Identify new avenues to support existing market structures After we understand the overall needs…  Q: if we increase demand, can supply keep up without doing harm? (for cash/ voucher programs)

4. Objectives of market assessment

5. What if markets are not considered? Change in prices of goods Change in demand for goods Market distortions The basics Part of all needs assessments Iterative Coordinated with others So…. market assessments should be…

6. Market assessment tools

7. CRS-recommended

8. CaLP Minimum Requirements for Market Analysis in Emergencies

9. MR 1: The scope and depth of the market assessment enable appropriate programme decisions and are based on identified information needs. Minimum Requirements Structure

10. Minimum Requirements MR 1: The scope and depth of the market assessment enable appropriate programme decisions and are based on identified information needs. MR 2: Market analysis data answers key programme-related decisions and contributes to the selection of appropriate modalities to achieve programme objectives whilst doing no harm. MR 3: Collection of data is undertaken by competent and knowledgeable teams. MR 4: Data collection systems and information sources utilized in the market assessment are appropriate and of sufficient quality to allow for the capturing of the dynamic nature of markets. MR 5: Monitoring activities provide a check against initial assessment findings and enable decision-making for potential adaptation of intervention. Programme related decisions Key guiding questions Programme related decisions Key guiding questions Key market system Key markets Linkages and actors Affected links and actors Key market system Key markets Linkages and actors Affected links and actors

11. Minimum Requirements MR 1: The scope and depth of the market assessment enable appropriate programme decisions and are based on identified information needs. MR 2: Market analysis data answers key programme-related decisions and contributes to the selection of appropriate modalities to achieve programme objectives whilst doing no harm. MR 3: Collection of data is undertaken by competent and knowledgeable teams. MR 4: Data collection systems and information sources utilized in the market assessment are appropriate and of sufficient quality to allow for the capturing of the dynamic nature of markets. MR 5: Monitoring activities provide a check against initial assessment findings and enable decision-making for potential adaptation of intervention.

12. Minimum Requirements MR 1: The scope and depth of the market assessment enable appropriate programme decisions and are based on identified information needs. MR 2: Market analysis data answers key programme-related decisions and contributes to the selection of appropriate modalities to achieve programme objectives whilst doing no harm. MR 3: Collection of data is undertaken by competent and knowledgeable teams. MR 4: Data collection systems and information sources utilized in the market assessment are appropriate and of sufficient quality to allow for the capturing of the dynamic nature of markets. MR 5: Monitoring activities provide a check against initial assessment findings and enable decision-making for potential adaptation of intervention.

13. Key questions Determine whether…. To implement a cash, voucher, or in-kind intervention ? To implement a labour based intervention (i.e. cash/food for work programme) ? To procure goods locally ? Market conditions are favourable for livelihood interventions being considered ? Where are the markets for the essential goods – food, non- food items (nfI), shelter items? To what degree are vulnerable HHs connected to these markets? What is the estimated change in demand generated by the proposed intervention? Are there restrictions to the movement of goods? Are local traders able to meet such a change in demand within the necessary deadline without significantly increasing prices? Are there specific traders that need to be targeted for support? How has the market infrastructure been affected by the crisis? How has the supply chain been affected by the crisis? How has the value chain been affected by the crisis? How have market service providers been affected by the crisis? Have the dynamics between market participants been altered as a result of the crisis? Where are the markets for the essential goods – food, non- food items (nfI), shelter items? To what degree are vulnerable HHs connected to these markets? What is the estimated change in demand generated by the proposed intervention? Are there restrictions to the movement of goods? Are local traders able to meet such a change in demand within the necessary deadline without significantly increasing prices? Are there specific traders that need to be targeted for support? How has the market infrastructure been affected by the crisis? How has the supply chain been affected by the crisis? How has the value chain been affected by the crisis? How have market service providers been affected by the crisis? Have the dynamics between market participants been altered as a result of the crisis? Scope: Program-related decisions Minimum Requirements

14. MR 1: The scope and depth of the market assessment enable appropriate programme decisions and are based on identified information needs. MR 2: Market analysis data answers key programme-related decisions and contributes to the selection of appropriate modalities to achieve programme objectives whilst doing no harm. MR 3: Collection of data is undertaken by competent and knowledgeable teams. MR 4: Data collection systems and information sources utilized in the market assessment are appropriate and of sufficient quality to allow for the capturing of the dynamic nature of markets. MR 5: Monitoring activities provide a check against initial assessment findings and enable decision-making for potential adaptation of intervention.

15. Analysis Defining programme risk Key action points: Analysis -> Conclusions -> Recommendations What to avoid 15 MR 2: Market analysis data answers key programme-related decisions and contributes to the selection of appropriate modalities to achieve programme objectives whilst doing no harm. Don’t focus solely on the size of your organisation’s planned response when determining the relative scale of the humanitarian response but rather on the sum of all planned interventions in the relevant area. Don’t rush the analysis. if you have time constraints ensure that you don’t overemphasize the data collection and leave insufficient time for the analysis. Don’t focus solely on the size of your organisation’s planned response when determining the relative scale of the humanitarian response but rather on the sum of all planned interventions in the relevant area. Don’t rush the analysis. if you have time constraints ensure that you don’t overemphasize the data collection and leave insufficient time for the analysis. Δ Demand > 25% for urban Δ Demand > 10% for rural

16. Data Collection Local knowledge, experience, economics Key market actors Coordination and division of responsibility 16 MR 3: Collection of data is undertaken by competent and knowledgeable teams. MR 4: Data collection systems and information sources utilised in the market assessment are appropriate and of sufficient quality to allow for the capturing of the dynamic nature of markets.

17. Monitoring and ensuring data validity Frequency is contingent on initial assessment, volatility & risk Focus on sensitive assumptions and outcomes Reassess assessment and response 17 MR 5: Monitoring activities provide a check against initial assessment findings and enable decision-making for potential adaptation of intervention. Response area Monitoring area

18. Checklists 18

19. CaLP Quiz 1. Your program will reach 10,000 beneficiaries, and you want to know if this is a high-risk or low-risk program. 2. You are developing a market assessment and you need to decide who will be on your team. 3. For a small program providing one food commodity in one geographic area, your PM submits a draft market assessment plan that will cover the whole country. 4. As M&E manager, you are going to develop a price data and market monitoring system to make sure your data is updated. 5. Your staff tells you that they are only able to interview a couple of the very large traders, and you’re not sure of the validity of this information.

20. What do I do in an emergency?

21. Timing of the assessment in emergency response What do I do in an emergency?

22. Initial rapid assessment (in the first days): sizing the emergency, drafting response options Initial assessment (1 st weeks): understanding the emergency, its impact, evaluating response options (including markets) Detailed assessment (1 st months) What do I do in an emergency? Timing of the assessment in emergency response

23. Determine 1-2 critical market systems to focus on – Central to households’ survival and/or livelihoods, – Provide households with the necessary goods and services to meet their essential needs Identify key markets and their linkages to broader markets (other local or national markets) – May depend on what traders tell you Identify geographic scope – Immediate actors, and those critical for recovery Decide analytical scope – Ask about feasibility of potential response options – ID key program questions (“what has been the impact on the bean trade?”) Prep for an assessment What do I do in an emergency?

25. Secondary data (market profiles, prices) – historical price data; market baseline studies; food basket consumption studies, livelihoods assessments Observation – how many retailers/wholesalers, what is being sold, availability of supplies, prices, roads/ access, how many transporters coming in and out Structured interviews with market actors and key informants Semi-structured interviews and/or focus group discussions with target households (separate men and women if possible) Methods What do I do in an emergency?

26. Tips for good trader interviews Interview traders individually and in private. Arrange a time to meet outside of normal trading hours. Traders are busy people. Explain clearly why you want the information. Avoid raising expectations. Respect trader’s proprietary information. Explain that all information is voluntary and will not be shared with competitors, customers. Try and keep interviews concise and informal. Clarify inconsistencies in responses; don’t just write down answers that don’t make sense. What do I do in an emergency?

27. Exercise You are in charge of designing a food assistance program in northeast Nigeria. There has been significant conflict that seems to have affected the markets and production, but it’s uncertain. 1.What stakeholders will you need to include in a market assessment? 2.What types of questions will you ask them? Circulate the room and add questions for 3-5 minutes at each station; I’ll tell you when to move.

28. Key market assessment questions Food availability Demand/access Market integration/supply chains Market competition Marketing costs/constraints Impact of the crisis

29. Are markets operating and accessible? Are the basic items that people need available in sufficient quantities and at reasonable prices? Are there restrictions on the movement of goods? Is the market competitive? Are traders able and willing to respond to an increase in demand? What are the risks that cash will cause inflation in prices of key products? Key market assessment questions (example for cash programs)

30. Key market assessment questions (example for food security) What is the impact of the crisis? Pre- and post-crisis trends in…. Food availability – household and market – Quantities / volumes Demand/access – household and market – Prices – Constraints (security, purchasing power) Market chain functioning – Actors, constraints in supply chain – Policies – Vendor capacity (speed, sources, stability, price) Market integration Market competition - # and types of traders Risks (inflation, price changes, security)

31. Key Messages Market assessment is vital to: – Assess the market’s capacity to meet demand before an emergency – Explore the impact of the emergency on the market – Estimate the market system’s capacity to contribute to emergency response (e.g. cash- based responses) – Identify market-support options.