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Regression Analysis Deterministic model No chance of an error in calculating y for a given x Probabilistic model chance of an error First order linear.

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Presentation on theme: "Regression Analysis Deterministic model No chance of an error in calculating y for a given x Probabilistic model chance of an error First order linear."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Regression Analysis Deterministic model No chance of an error in calculating y for a given x Probabilistic model chance of an error First order linear probabilistic model  0 +  x + 

3 Least Square Method Minimizes the sum of squared differences between observed and values from the regression line.  : slope of the line and = Ss xy  SS x Look for the short cut formula on page 731  o : y intercept = y - -  x - Residual: y i - Y ^

4 Regression continued R 2 = SSR/SST Proportion of the total variation in Y explained by the regression line R 2 = 1, all scatter points on the regression line R 2 = 0 no scatter point on the regression line Square root of R 2 is called coefficient of correlation

5 Regression continued When Coefficient of correlation is positive, there is direct relationship between variables When Coefficient of correlation is negative, y value increases when x decrease and vice versa When Coefficient of correlation is zero, there is no linear relationship.

6 Regression SST=SSR+SSE Formulae for predicted interval and expected interval are on page 756 To infer on the population coefficient of correlation, use t -test, formula on page 761 To find t-value from t-table, you must know –degree of freedom –the level of significance For two tailed test, divide the level of significance by 2.

7 Assessing the Model Standard error of the estimate –Divide the standard error of the estimate by the average of y –Smaller its value, better the fit Coefficient of determination –Closer its value to 1, better the fit –R 2 =1, all scatter points fit on the regression/least square line –R 2 = 0, non of the scatter points lie on the regression line. –Explains the proportion of the total deviation explained by the regression line.

8 Inference on Slope Apply t-test because –standard deviation of the population is unknown H 0 :  = 0 H a :  0 t= (  ^ -  )/S  ^ S  ^ is the standard deviation of the slope and =S e /  SS x use level of significance and the degree of freedom = (n-2) to derive a conclusion based on the data. Predicting a value of Y for a given value of x use the formula on page 756 or use the Excel print- out under PI Estimating expected value Use the formula on page 756 or use the computer print out under confidence interval.


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