1. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Longitudinal Dynamics of Youth in Foster Care Joseph Magruder Emily Putnam-Hornstein Center for Social Services Research University of California at Berkeley Beth Lindley California Department of Social Services The Performance Indicators Project is a collaboration of the California Department of Social Services and the University of California at Berkeley, and is supported by the California Department of Social Services and the Stuart Foundation

2. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Overview… Part I: California’s caseload dynamics in the past decade –Dramatic overall decline, steepest among elementary school aged groups –No decline observed for older youth in care (and entry rates flat) –What explains these different dynamics? what might we expect to see in the years to come? Part II: (Late) placement disruptions of older youth –Cohort of youth who first entered care before their 14 th birthday (and were in care at age 17) –Data suggest that, even for those who have early stable placements, placement disruptions are common between ages 14 and 17 –Why is stability so hard to achieve for these older youth? what are the implications for transitions out of care and into adulthood?

3. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Data All data for this presentation are based on extracts from California’s Child Welfare Services/Case Management System (CWS/CMS) Extracts are configured into a longitudinal database as part of a collaboration between the California Department of Social Services and the Center for Social Services Research (CSSR) at UC Berkeley Data for Part I are from CSSR’s publicly available website: cssr.berkeley.edu/ucb_childwelfare Data for Part II are based on a unique sample created by the presenters to be described later…

4. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Part I Elusiveness of Permanency for Foster Care Youth California’s caseload has declined in dramatic fashion over the last decade: –Over 109,000 children in child welfare supervised placements in 1999 –64,838 children as of January 1, 2009 Yet the number of older teens in care has not followed this downward trend: –Just over 9,000 16-17 year olds in care in 1999 –9,882 16-17 year olds as of January 1, 2009 A point-in-time caseload count changes as a function of entry and exit flows…so we explore annual cohort dynamics over time for clarity

5. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload 1998-2009 all children

6. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 infants

7. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 1 yr olds

8. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 2 yr olds

9. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 3 yr olds

10. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 4 yr olds

11. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 5 yr olds

12. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 6 yr olds

13. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 7 yr olds

14. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 8 yr olds

15. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 9 yr olds

16. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 10 yr olds

17. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 11 yr olds

18. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 12 yr olds

19. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 13 yr olds

20. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 14 yr olds

21. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 15 yr olds

22. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 16 yr olds

23. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age) 1998-2009 17 yr olds

24. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries 1998-2008 all children

25. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 infants

26. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 1 yr olds

27. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 2 yr olds

28. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 3 yr olds

29. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 4 yr olds

30. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 5 yr olds

31. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 6 yr olds

32. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 7 yr olds

33. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 8 yr olds

34. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 9 yr olds

35. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 10 yr olds

36. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 11 yr olds

37. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 12 yr olds

38. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 13 yr olds

39. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 14 yr olds

40. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 15 yr olds

41. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 16 yr olds

42. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Entries (by age) 1998-2008 17 yr olds

43. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits 1998-2008 all children

44. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 infants

45. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 1 yr olds

46. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 2 yr olds

47. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 3 yr olds

48. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 4 yr olds

49. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 5 yr olds

50. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 6 yr olds

51. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 7 yr olds

52. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 8 yr olds

53. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 9 yr olds

54. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 10 yr olds

55. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 11 yr olds

56. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 12 yr olds

57. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 13 yr olds

58. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 14 yr olds

59. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 15 yr olds

60. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 16 yr olds

61. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008 17 yr olds

62. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year) 1991 16 17 15 141312 11 10 9 87 6

63. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year) 1992 16 17 15 141312 11 10 9 87 6 6

64. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley 1993 15 16 17 15 141312 11 10 9 87 6 15 California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year)

65. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley 1994 14 16 17 15 141312 11 10 9 87 6 California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year)

66. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley 1995 13 16 17 15 141312 11 10 9 87 6 California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year)

67. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley 1996 12 1316 17 15 141312 11 10 9 87 6 California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year)

68. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley 1997 11 1316 17 15 141312 11 10 9 87 6 California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year)

69. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley July-Dec. First Entries, 8 Days or More in Care California: Status 12, 24, and 48 Months After Entry by Entry Year 48 months after entry24 months after entry12 months after entry

70. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Part I Conclusions The basic intent of PL96-272, ASFA, etc. is being met – children spend less time in care and achieve permanency at earlier ages. We are not seeing the full effect of this on older adolescents yet... However, each age cohort is smaller than the previous one at the beginning of adolescence. Unless there is a sharp increase in the number of children reentering care, we can expect the number of youth in care to decline over the next five years. The caseload will have proportionately fewer youth who have been raised in the foster care system. These changes suggest that the youth in future cohorts will have different service needs.

71. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Part II Elusiveness of Stability for Foster Care Youth Motivation: –This research extends analyses we presented last year in which we noted that relatively few teens were in the same placement at age 17 as they had been at age 14 –This was despite the fact that the median time in the current placement at age 14 was 4.6 years Objective: –Explore factors related to late-adolescent instability for youth who were in care at age 14

72. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Sample Birth 19892006 In Foster Care at age 17 2003 First Entry to Foster Care Children born in 1989 who entered foster care under the supervision of California child welfare and were in care at age 14 and age 17 under the supervision of either child welfare or probation. Data were drawn from a longitudinal extract of the California Child Welfare Services/Case Management System (CWS/CMS). Youth may have exited and re-entered between age 14 and age 17 In Foster Care at age 14

73. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Who is represented in this Sample? California Caseload Snapshot July 1, 2006: –5,291* 17-year olds in care –63% of these youth had been in care for 3+ years Our Sample (born in 1989, age 17 in care in 2006, in care at 14) 3,027** youth met our sample criteria *Includes only youth currently under child welfare supervision **Includes youth who were under child welfare or probation supervision

74. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Sample Demographics Average age at first entry: 5.8 years Median of 6 years (aggregate) spent in out-of-home care 57% of life through age 17 spent in out-of-home care –7% of life spent in a group home setting –14% of time in care in group home setting 79% eventually emancipated / “aged out” Nearly 70% percent experienced a placement move between age 14 and 17

75. Age at First Entry Mean: 5.8 yrs Mean: 6.8 yrs Mean: 7.3 yrs Mean: 4.2 yrs

76. Life in Out-of-Home Care (by Age)

77. Placements Prior to Age 14 (by move vs. no move after age 14)

78. Exiting from Care…

79. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Model Specification

80. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Covariates Race : white (ref), black, hispanic, native american, asian/pi Male (0/1) Age at First Entry: <1 yr (ref), 1-2yrs, 3-4yrs, 5-6yrs, 7-8yrs, 9-10yrs, 11-13yrs Placement Type at Age 14: foster (ref), kin, group, guardianship, other Placement Count at Age 14: one (ref), two, three+ Most Recent Removal Reason: neglect (ref), physical, sexual, other First Episode (0/1) Sibling(s) in Same Placement (0/1) Mental Retardation (0/1) Physical Disability (0/1) Visual Hearing Disability (0/1) DSM-III Diagnosis (0/1) Race by Placement Interactions Race by Age Interactions Placement by Age Interactions

81. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Models Three models shown: –basic demographic variables –basic demographic +placement variables –basic demographic + placement + health variables Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals reported (w/robust standard error adjustments) Interaction effects examined (but not shown in handout)…no evidence of improved fit

82. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Findings (see handout of models) Suggestion that some types of disabilities are protective (i.e., mental retardation), while others increase risk of late placement instability (i.e., mental illness, visual/hearing disabilities) –Low correlation between disabilities – the highest was 0.22 between physical disability and mental retardation Placement with Kin or a Guardian is associated with greater placement certainty/stability during adolescent years vs. foster homes (but we cannot rule out selection factors) Placement with a sibling (at age 14) significantly reduced the odds of a later move, even after controlling for placement type and other covariates

83. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Findings (see handout of models) In the first and simpler models (not shown) we found that Black children in this sample were significantly less likely than White children to have experienced a placement move after the age of 14, but this effect disappeared once we controlled for placement type and other variables Increasing age at entry heightened the risk of experiencing a placement move in adolescence versus those who had first entered care as infants Entry for “other” reasons (which included truancy, running away, etc.) was associated with late adolescent placement instability, as was having had 2 or more placements or more than one removal episode prior to age 14

84. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Part II Conclusions Placement stability for adolescents is associated with age at first entry into foster care, placement situation, and health. Future research on foster youth placement stability may continue to show protective effects for youth placed with –kin and guardians –their siblings Other factors that may be examined in future research include changes in schools due to placement and same-neighborhood placement.

85. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Conclusions? Many older adolescent youth in care (or recently exiting care) have spent significant periods of time in out-of-home care (despite common perceptions that emancipating youth are recent entries into foster care) –Trend data would suggest that, moving forward, we should see that this is true for fewer older adolescents –We should also expect to see the number/count of older youth dropping despite a constant entry rate (prior cohorts getting smaller due to shorter stays in care) –Of course, only time will tell!

86. CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley joemagruder@berkeley.edu eputnamhornstein@berkeley.edu beth.lindley@dss.ca.gov CSSR.BERKELEY.EDU/UCB_CHILDWELFARE Thank you to our colleagues at the Center for Social Services Research, the California Department of Social Services, and the Stuart Foundation