1. Overview of a model to estimate the GHG balance of the New Zealand forest industry 22 March 2004 Isabel Loza-Balbuena PhD candidate School of Forestry

2. Funding University of Canterbury Doctoral Scholarship T.W Adams scholarship IEA Bioenergy study award

3. Outline Goal Objectives Overview of the project Outputs expected Approach

4. Goal To analyse the impact of climate change and renewable energy policies and economic instruments on the GHG balance of the forest sector.

5. Objective 1 To identify the level of incentive to have an impact on the GHG balance

6. Objective 2 To estimate the NZ carbon balance of forest plantations the processing industry and HWP as an integrated system

7. Objective 3 To identify a combination of mitigation options through land use management, forest industry and bioenergy aiming at reducing GHG emissions for the short and long term.

8. Objective 4 To investigate the use of discount rate on the economic analysis of carbon benefits as an environmental and market value of forest.

9. Objective 5 To analyse the potential of the forestry sector to help meet renewable energy targets through an increase in the use of woody biomass (forest and processing residues).

10. Objective 6 To analyse and eventually identify the main barriers for the use of bioenergy in the forest industry and assess whether certain incentives would help to overcome them.

11. Impact of policies on GHG balance Policies/instruments Project level Carbon balance National level

12. Outputs expected Land that would need incentives to change LU Level of incentive necessary to achieve more planting Sensitivity analysis for different species, rotation age, management, log allocation, energy use, decay rates Impact of these scenarios on carbon balance

13. Approach

14. Balance PlantationsProcessingHWP Policies/instruments

15. GHG balance PlantationsProcessingHWP Net atmospheric exchange Processing emissions HWP emissions - -

16. Net atmospheric exchange Residual Yr 1 Residual Yr 0 Cut logs Yr 1 Net atmospheric exchange Processing emissions HWP emissions - - - + Processing Processing residues HWP Cut residues Yr 1

17. Processing Total processing emissions Cut logs Yr 1 Pruned logs S1S2 S3L3 L1L2 Pulp logs Processing Chemical pulp Mechanical pulp Panels Sawmills Paper Processing residues HWP

18. Energy use Total processing emissions Energy Electricity Gas Coal Other fosil fuel Geothermal Biomass Processing Chemical pulp Mechanical pulp Panels Sawmills Paper Processing residues HWP

19. Energy sources

20. HWP Cut logs Yr 1 HWP Chemical pulp Mechanical pulp Panels Sawntimber Paper Processing Processing residues Simple decay approach Products categories Lifetime Decay profile HWP emissions