1. Can we forecast an Earthquake??? In the next minute there will be an earthquake somewhere in the world! This sentence is correct (we have seen that there is at least 150 earthquake of magnitude 2-2.9 every hour!) but quite useless.

2. Long vs Short Term forecast Long term: Geological observation: Paleoseismology Mapping Faults Seismic Gaps Geodesy Geophysics: Earthquake processing Stress propagation Earthquake Simulations SEISMIC HAZARDS MAPS Short term Foreshocks Animal Behavior Rock Conductivity Rock Seismic Velocity Water Level Gas Emission (Radon) EVACUATION

3. Problems with Short Term Every earthquake seems to behave in a different way and in general we make the observations only after the event. The only real forecast with evacuations happen in February 1975 in China (Haicheng) but none of the observed sign of the 1975 event were visible next year in TangShan (China) when an earthquake killed 250000 people. The recurrence time is too long to test our models

4. Haicheng earthquake

5. Seismic Gap (1) USGS, 1989

6. Seismic Gaps (2) From Brumbagugh, 1999

7. The SCEC 3.0 velocity field

8. Velocity and velocity gradient of all segments

9. Maximum horizontal shear

10. Relation between seismicity and interseismic deformation

11. Historical Major Earthquakes 1857Fort Tejon7.9 1906San Francisco8.3 1940Imperial Valley6.9 1989Loma Prieta6.9 1992Landers7.3 1994Northridge6.7 1999Hector Mine7.2 The BIG Ones

12. Timeline 0 100 200 300 500 600 700800 years Recurrence Intervals 150 years40 years24 years 210 years 400 years Average time between major earthquake events on a fault segment Short recurrence intervals are identified along faults of high stress accumulation rate 400 Imperial Parkfield Mojave Santa Cruz Peninsula Calaveras Concord more repeating earthquakes

13. Paleoseismic

14. Current motion in the Aegean-Caucuses (with respect to Eurasia) McClusky et al. (2000)

15. Stain et al, 1997 Anatolian Fault

16. Hazards Maps

17. City Planning Schools From Brumbagugh, 1999

18. Education