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Propagation on Large Networks

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Presentation on theme: "Propagation on Large Networks"— Presentation transcript:

1 Propagation on Large Networks
B. Aditya Prakash Christos Faloutsos Carnegie Mellon University INARC Meeting – May 2nd

2 Preaching to the choir: Networks are everywhere!
Facebook Network [2010] Gene Regulatory Network [Decourty 2008] Human Disease Network [Barabasi 2007] The Internet [2005] Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

3 Dynamical Processes over networks are also everywhere!
Focus of this talk: Dynamical Processes over networks are also everywhere! Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

4 Why do we care? Social collaboration Information Diffusion
Viral Marketing Epidemiology and Public Health Cyber Security Human mobility Games and Virtual Worlds Ecology Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

5 Why do we care? (1: Epidemiology)
Dynamical Processes over networks [AJPH 2007] CDC data: Visualization of the first 35 tuberculosis (TB) patients and their 1039 contacts Diseases over contact networks Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

6 Why do we care? (1: Epidemiology)
Dynamical Processes over networks Each circle is a hospital ~3000 hospitals More than 30,000 patients transferred [US-MEDICARE NETWORK 2005] Problem: Given k units of disinfectant, whom to immunize? Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

7 Why do we care? (1: Epidemiology)
~6x fewer! [US-MEDICARE NETWORK 2005] CURRENT PRACTICE OUR METHOD Hospital-acquired inf. took 99K+ lives, cost $5B+ (all per year) Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

8 Why do we care? (2: Online Diffusion)
> 800m users, ~$1B revenue [WSJ 2010] ~100m active users > 50m users Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

9 Why do we care? (2: Online Diffusion)
Dynamical Processes over networks Buy Versace™! Celebrity Followers Social Media Marketing Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

10 Why do we care? (3: To change the world?)
Dynamical Processes over networks Social networks and Collaborative Action Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

11 High Impact – Multiple Settings
epidemic out-breaks Q. How to squash rumors faster? Q. How do opinions spread? Q. How to market better? products/viruses transmit s/w patches Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

12 Large real-world networks & processes
Research Theme ANALYSIS Understanding POLICY/ ACTION Managing DATA Large real-world networks & processes Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

13 Research Theme – Public Health
ANALYSIS Will an epidemic happen? POLICY/ ACTION How to control out-breaks? DATA Modeling # patient transfers Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

14 Research Theme – Social Media
ANALYSIS # cascades in future? POLICY/ ACTION How to market better? DATA Modeling Tweets spreading Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

15 In this talk Given propagation models: Q1: Will an epidemic happen?
ANALYSIS Understanding Given propagation models: Q1: Will an epidemic happen? Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

16 In this talk Q2: How to immunize and control out-breaks better?
POLICY/ ACTION Managing Q2: How to immunize and control out-breaks better? Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

17 Outline Motivation Epidemics: what happens? (Theory)
Action: Who to immunize? (Algorithms) Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

18 A fundamental question
Strong Virus Epidemic? Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

19 example (static graph)
Weak Virus Epidemic? Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

20 Problem Statement Find, a condition under which # Infected
above (epidemic) below (extinction) # Infected time Find, a condition under which virus will die out exponentially quickly regardless of initial infection condition Separate the regimes? Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

21 Threshold (static version)
Problem Statement Given: Graph G, and Virus specs (attack prob. etc.) Find: A condition for virus extinction/invasion Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

22 Threshold: Why important?
Accelerating simulations Forecasting (‘What-if’ scenarios) Design of contagion and/or topology A great handle to manipulate the spreading Immunization Maximize collaboration ….. Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

23 Outline Motivation Epidemics: what happens? (Theory)
Background Result (Static Graphs) Proof Ideas (Static Graphs) Bonus 1: Dynamic Graphs Bonus 2: Competing Viruses Action: Who to immunize? (Algorithms) Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

24 “SIR” model: life immunity (mumps)
Background “SIR” model: life immunity (mumps) Each node in the graph is in one of three states Susceptible (i.e. healthy) Infected Removed (i.e. can’t get infected again) Prob. δ Prob. β t = 1 t = 2 t = 3 Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

25 Terminology: continued
Background Terminology: continued Other virus propagation models (“VPM”) SIS : susceptible-infected-susceptible, flu-like SIRS : temporary immunity, like pertussis SEIR : mumps-like, with virus incubation (E = Exposed) ….…………. Underlying contact-network – ‘who-can-infect-whom’ Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

26 Background Related Work All are about either: Structured topologies (cliques, block-diagonals, hierarchies, random) Specific virus propagation models Static graphs R. M. Anderson and R. M. May. Infectious Diseases of Humans. Oxford University Press, 1991. A. Barrat, M. Barthélemy, and A. Vespignani. Dynamical Processes on Complex Networks. Cambridge University Press, 2010. F. M. Bass. A new product growth for model consumer durables. Management Science, 15(5):215–227, 1969. D. Chakrabarti, Y. Wang, C. Wang, J. Leskovec, and C. Faloutsos. Epidemic thresholds in real networks. ACM TISSEC, 10(4), 2008. D. Easley and J. Kleinberg. Networks, Crowds, and Markets: Reasoning About a Highly Connected World. Cambridge University Press, 2010. A. Ganesh, L. Massoulie, and D. Towsley. The effect of network topology in spread of epidemics. IEEE INFOCOM, 2005. Y. Hayashi, M. Minoura, and J. Matsukubo. Recoverable prevalence in growing scale-free networks and the effective immunization. arXiv:cond-at/ v2, Aug H. W. Hethcote. The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM Review, 42, 2000. H. W. Hethcote and J. A. Yorke. Gonorrhea transmission dynamics and control. Springer Lecture Notes in Biomathematics, 46, 1984. J. O. Kephart and S. R. White. Directed-graph epidemiological models of computer viruses. IEEE Computer Society Symposium on Research in Security and Privacy, 1991. J. O. Kephart and S. R. White. Measuring and modeling computer virus prevalence. IEEE Computer Society Symposium on Research in Security and Privacy, 1993. R. Pastor-Santorras and A. Vespignani. Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks. Physical Review Letters 86, 14, 2001. ……… Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

27 Outline Motivation Epidemics: what happens? (Theory)
Background Result (Static Graphs) Proof Ideas (Static Graphs) Bonus 1: Dynamic Graphs Bonus 2: Competing Viruses Action: Who to immunize? (Algorithms) Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

28 How should the answer look like?
Answer should depend on: Graph Virus Propagation Model (VPM) But how?? Graph – average degree? max. degree? diameter? VPM – which parameters? How to combine – linear? quadratic? exponential? ….. Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

29 Static Graphs: Our Main Result
Informally, For, any arbitrary topology (adjacency matrix A) any virus propagation model (VPM) in standard literature the epidemic threshold depends only on the λ, first eigenvalue of A, and some constant , determined by the virus propagation model λ No epidemic if λ * < 1 In Prakash+ ICDM 2011 (Selected among best papers). Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

30 Our thresholds for some models
s = effective strength s < 1 : below threshold Models Effective Strength (s) Threshold (tipping point) SIS, SIR, SIRS, SEIR s = λ . s = 1 SIV, SEIV (H.I.V.) Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

31 Our result: Intuition for λ
“Official” definition: “Un-official” Intuition  Let A be the adjacency matrix. Then λ is the root with the largest magnitude of the characteristic polynomial of A [det(A – xI)]. Doesn’t give much intuition! λ ~ # paths in the graph u u ≈ . (i, j) = # of paths i  j of length k Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

32 Largest Eigenvalue (λ)
better connectivity higher λ Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

33 Largest Eigenvalue (λ)
better connectivity higher λ λ ≈ 2 λ = N λ = N-1 λ ≈ 2 λ= 31.67 λ= 999 N = 1000 N nodes Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

34 Examples: Simulations – SIR (mumps)
Fraction of Infections Footprint (a) Infection profile (b) “Take-off” plot PORTLAND graph: synthetic population, 31 million links, 6 million nodes Effective Strength Time ticks Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

35 Examples: Simulations – SIRS (pertusis)
Fraction of Infections Footprint (a) Infection profile (b) “Take-off” plot PORTLAND graph: synthetic population, 31 million links, 6 million nodes Time ticks Effective Strength Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

36 Outline Motivation Epidemics: what happens? (Theory)
Background Result (Static Graphs) Proof Ideas (Static Graphs) Bonus 1: Dynamic Graphs Bonus 2: Competing Viruses Action: Who to immunize? (Algorithms) Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

37 Proof Sketch λ * < 1 General VPM structure Model-based Graph-based
λ * < 1 Dimensional arguments… Full proof 30 pages on arxiv Graph-based Topology and stability

38 Models and more models H.I.V. Model Used for SIR Mumps SIS Flu SIRS
Pertussis SEIR Chicken-pox …….. SICR Tuberculosis MSIR Measles SIV Sensor Stability H.I.V. ……….

39 Ingredient 1: Our generalized model
Exogenous Transitions Endogenous Transitions Susceptible Infected Vigilant Endogenous Transitions Susceptible Infected Vigilant (S*I*V*?)

40 Special case Susceptible Infected (S*I*V*?) Vigilant

41 Special case: H.I.V. Multiple Infectious, Vigilant states
“Non-terminal” “Terminal” Multiple Infectious, Vigilant states

42 Ingredient 2: NLDS+Stability
Details Ingredient 2: NLDS+Stability View as a NLDS discrete time non-linear dynamical system (NLDS) size mN x 1 . size N (number of nodes in the graph) S Probability vector Specifies the state of the system at time t Curly braces…say what the blue yellow are… I V

43 Ingredient 2: NLDS + Stability
Details Ingredient 2: NLDS + Stability View as a NLDS discrete time non-linear dynamical system (NLDS) size mN x 1 . Non-linear function Explicitly gives the evolution of system

44 Ingredient 2: NLDS + Stability
View as a NLDS discrete time non-linear dynamical system (NLDS) Threshold  Stability of NLDS

45 Special case: SIR Details NLDS size 3N x 1 = probability that node
Apply g on p_T, you get p_t+1 = probability that node i is not attacked by any of its infectious neighbors NLDS

46 Fixed Point Details State when no node is infected Q: Is it stable? 1
. State when no node is infected Q: Is it stable?

47 Stability for SIR Stable under threshold Unstable above threshold

48 λ * < 1 See paper for full proof General VPM structure Model-based
λ * < 1 Graph-based Topology and stability Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

49 Outline Motivation Epidemics: what happens? (Theory)
Background Result (Static Graphs) Proof Ideas (Static Graphs) Bonus 1: Dynamic Graphs Bonus 2: Competing Viruses Action: Who to immunize? (Algorithms) Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

50 Dynamic Graphs: Epidemic?
Alternating behaviors DAY (e.g., work) adjacency matrix 8 Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

51 Dynamic Graphs: Epidemic?
Alternating behaviors NIGHT (e.g., home) adjacency matrix 8 Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

52 Model Description SIS model Set of T arbitrary graphs recovery rate δ
Infected Healthy X N1 N3 N2 Prob. β Prob. δ SIS model recovery rate δ infection rate β Set of T arbitrary graphs day N night N , weekend….. Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

53 Our result: Dynamic Graphs Threshold
Informally, NO epidemic if eig (S) = < 1 Single number! Largest eigenvalue of The system matrix S Details S = In Prakash+, ECML-PKDD 2010 Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

54 Infection-profile Synthetic MIT Reality Mining log(fraction infected)
ABOVE ABOVE AT AT BELOW BELOW Time Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

55 “Take-off” plots Synthetic MIT Reality Our threshold Our threshold
Footprint (# “steady state”) Synthetic MIT Reality EPIDEMIC Our threshold Our threshold EPIDEMIC NO EPIDEMIC NO EPIDEMIC (log scale) Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

56 Outline Motivation Epidemics: what happens? (Theory)
Background Result (Static Graphs) Proof Ideas (Static Graphs) Bonus 1: Dynamic Graphs Bonus 2: Competing Viruses Action: Who to immunize? (Algorithms) Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

57 Competing Contagions iPhone v Android Blu-ray v HD-DVD v Attack
Retreat Biological common flu/avian flu, pneumococcal inf etc

58 A simple model Virus 2 Virus 1 Details Modified flu-like
Mutual Immunity (“pick one of the two”) Susceptible-Infected1-Infected2-Susceptible Virus 1 Virus 2 Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

59 Question: What happens in the end?
green: virus 1 red: virus 2 Number of Infections Steady State = ? ASSUME: Virus 1 is stronger than Virus 2 Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

60 Question: What happens in the end?
Steady State green: virus 1 red: virus 2 Number of Infections Strength ?? = 2 Strength ASSUME: Virus 1 is stronger than Virus 2

61 Answer: Winner-Takes-All
green: virus 1 red: virus 2 Number of Infections ASSUME: Virus 1 is stronger than Virus 2

62 Our Result: Winner-Takes-All
Given our model, and any graph, the weaker virus always dies-out completely Details The stronger survives only if it is above threshold Virus 1 is stronger than Virus 2, if: strength(Virus 1) > strength(Virus 2) Strength(Virus) = λ β / δ  same as before! In Prakash+ WWW 2012

63 Real Examples [Google Search Trends data] Reddit v Digg
Blu-Ray v HD-DVD

64 Outline Motivation Epidemics: what happens? (Theory)
Action: Who to immunize? (Algorithms) Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

65 Full Static Immunization
Given: a graph A, virus prop. model and budget k; Find: k ‘best’ nodes for immunization (removal). ? ? k = 2 ? ? Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

66 Outline Motivation Epidemics: what happens? (Theory)
Action: Who to immunize? (Algorithms) Full Immunization (Static Graphs) Fractional Immunization Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

67 Challenges Given a graph A, budget k,
Q1 (Metric) How to measure the ‘shield-value’ for a set of nodes (S)? Q2 (Algorithm) How to find a set of k nodes with highest ‘shield-value’? Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

68 Proposed vulnerability measure λ
λ is the epidemic threshold “Safe” “Vulnerable” “Deadly” Increasing λ Increasing vulnerability Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

69 A1: “Eigen-Drop”: an ideal shield value
Eigen-Drop(S) Δ λ = λ - λs 9 9 Δ 9 11 10 10 1 1 6 2 4 4 8 8 2 3 7 3 7 5 5 6 Original Graph Without {2, 6} Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

70 (Q2) - Direct Algorithm too expensive!
Immunize k nodes which maximize Δ λ S = argmax Δ λ Combinatorial! Complexity: Example: 1,000 nodes, with 10,000 edges It takes 0.01 seconds to compute λ It takes 2,615 years to find 5-best nodes! Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

71 A2: Our Solution Part 1: Shield Value Part 2: Algorithm
Carefully approximate Eigen-drop (Δ λ) Matrix perturbation theory Part 2: Algorithm Greedily pick best node at each step Near-optimal due to submodularity NetShield (linear complexity) O(nk2+m) n = # nodes; m = # edges In Tong, Prakash+ ICDM 2010 Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

72 Our Solution: Part 1 Details Approximate Eigen-drop (Δ λ) A u u = λ .
Δ λ ≈ SV(S) = Result using Matrix perturbation theory u(i) == ‘eigenscore’ ~~ pagerank(i) u(i) A u u = λ .

73 Details P1: node importance P2: set diversity Select by P1
Select by P1+P2 Original Graph

74 Our Solution: Part 2: NetShield
Details Our Solution: Part 2: NetShield We prove that: SV(S) is sub-modular (& monotone non-decreasing) NetShield: Greedily add best node at each step Corollary: Greedy algorithm works 1. NetShield is near-optimal (w.r.t. max SV(S)) 2. NetShield is O(nk2+m) tell jon’s paper (influence propagation..) Footnote: near-optimal means SV(S NetShield) >= (1-1/e) SV(S Opt)

75 Experiment: Immunization quality
Log(fraction of infected nodes) PageRank Betweeness (shortest path) Degree Lower is better Acquaintance Eigs (=HITS) NetShield Time Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

76 Outline Motivation Epidemics: what happens? (Theory)
Action: Who to immunize? (Algorithms) Full Immunization (Static Graphs) Fractional Immunization Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

77 Fractional Immunization of Networks
B. Aditya Prakash, Lada Adamic, Theodore Iwashyna (M.D.), Hanghang Tong, Christos Faloutsos Submitted to Science Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

78 Fractional Asymmetric Immunization
Drug-resistant Bacteria (like XDR-TB) Hospital Another Hospital Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

79 Fractional Asymmetric Immunization
Drug-resistant Bacteria (like XDR-TB) Hospital Another Hospital Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

80 Fractional Asymmetric Immunization
Problem: Given k units of disinfectant, how to distribute them to maximize hospitals saved? Hospital Another Hospital Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

81 Our Algorithm “SMART-ALLOC”
~6x fewer! [US-MEDICARE NETWORK 2005] Each circle is a hospital, ~3000 hospitals More than 30,000 patients transferred CURRENT PRACTICE SMART-ALLOC Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

82 ≈ Running Time Wall-Clock Time > 30,000x speed-up! Lower is better
> 1 week > 30,000x speed-up! Lower is better 14 secs Simulations SMART-ALLOC Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

83 * = ones which I talked about
Publications Winner-takes-all: Competing Viruses or Ideas on fair-play networks (B. Aditya Prakash, Alex Beutel, Roni Rosenfeld, Christos Faloutsos) – In WWW 2012, Lyon Threshold Conditions for Arbitrary Cascade Models on Arbitrary Networks (B. Aditya Prakash, Deepayan Chakrabarti, Michalis Faloutsos, Nicholas Valler, Christos Faloutsos) - In IEEE ICDM 2011, Vancouver (Invited to KAIS Journal Best Papers of ICDM.) Times Series Clustering: Complex is Simpler! (Lei Li, B. Aditya Prakash) - In ICML 2011, Bellevue Epidemic Spreading on Mobile Ad Hoc Networks: Determining the Tipping Point (Nicholas Valler, B. Aditya Prakash, Hanghang Tong, Michalis Faloutsos and Christos Faloutsos) – In IEEE NETWORKING 2011, Valencia, Spain Formalizing the BGP stability problem: patterns and a chaotic model (B. Aditya Prakash, Michalis Faloutsos and Christos Faloutsos) – In IEEE INFOCOM NetSciCom Workshop, 2011. On the Vulnerability of Large Graphs (Hanghang Tong, B. Aditya Prakash, Tina Eliassi-Rad and Christos Faloutsos) – In IEEE ICDM 2010, Sydney, Australia Virus Propagation on Time-Varying Networks: Theory and Immunization Algorithms (B. Aditya Prakash, Hanghang Tong, Nicholas Valler, Michalis Faloutsos and Christos Faloutsos) – In ECML-PKDD 2010, Barcelona, Spain MetricForensics: A Multi-Level Approach for Mining Volatile Graphs (Keith Henderson, Tina Eliassi-Rad, Christos Faloutsos, Leman Akoglu, Lei Li, Koji Maruhashi, B. Aditya Prakash and Hanghang Tong) - In SIGKDD 2010, Washington D.C. Parsimonious Linear Fingerprinting for Time Series (Lei Li, B. Aditya Prakash and Christos Faloutsos) - In VLDB 2010, Singapore EigenSpokes: Surprising Patterns and Scalable Community Chipping in Large Graphs (B. Aditya Prakash, Ashwin Sridharan, Mukund Seshadri, Sridhar Machiraju and Christos Faloutsos) – In PAKDD 2010, Hyderabad, India BGP-lens: Patterns and Anomalies in Internet-Routing Updates (B. Aditya Prakash, Nicholas Valler, David Andersen, Michalis Faloutsos and Christos Faloutsos) – In ACM SIGKDD 2009, Paris, France. Surprising Patterns and Scalable Community Detection in Large Graphs (B. Aditya Prakash, Ashwin Sridharan, Mukund Seshadri, Sridhar Machiraju and Christos Faloutsos) – In IEEE ICDM Large Data Workshop 2009, Miami FRAPP: A Framework for high-Accuracy Privacy-Preserving Mining (Shipra Agarwal, Jayant R. Haritsa and B. Aditya Prakash) – In Intl. Journal on Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery (DKMD), Springer, vol. 18, no. 1, February 2009, Ed: Johannes Gehrke. Complex Group-By Queries For XML (C. Gokhale, N. Gupta, P. Kumar, L. V. S. Lakshmanan, R. Ng and B. Aditya Prakash) – In IEEE ICDE 2007, Istanbul, Turkey. * * * *

84 Submitted Fractional Immunization of Networks (B. Aditya Prakash, Lada Adamic, Theodore Iwashyna, Hanghang Tong, Christos Faloutsos) How much of Twitter is Influence? (B. Aditya Prakash, Deepayan Chakrabarti, Kunal Punera) Who is to blame? Finding Culprits in Epidemics (B. Aditya Prakash, Jilles Vreeken, Christos Faloutsos) Competing Viruses on Composite Networks: Who wins? (Xuetao Wei, Nicholas Valler, B. Aditya Prakash, Iulian Neamtiu, Michalis Faloutsos and Christos Faloutsos) Gelling, and Melting, Large Graphs through Edge Manipulation (Hanghang Tong, B. Aditya Prakash, Tina Eliassi-Rad, Michalis Faloutsos, Christos Faloutsos) Worst-case Footprints in the SIS model (B. Aditya Prakash, Varun Gupta and Christos Faloutsos) Patents Determining User Communities in Communication Networks (Ashwin Sridharan, Mukund Seshadri, James Schneider, B. Aditya Prakash, Christos Faloutsos) Sprint Inc., filed March 2010 Analysis of Computer Network Activity by Successively Removing Accepted Types of Access Events (B. Aditya Prakash, Alice Zheng, Jack Stokes, Eric Fitzgerald, Theodore Hardy) Microsoft Research, filed April 2010 *

85 Acknowledgements Collaborators Christos Faloutsos
Roni Rosenfeld, Michalis Faloutsos, Lada Adamic, Theodore Iwashyna (M.D.), Dave Andersen, Tina Eliassi-Rad, Iulian Neamtiu, Varun Gupta, Jilles Vreeken, Deepayan Chakrabarti, Hanghang Tong, Kunal Punera, Ashwin Sridharan, Sridhar Machiraju, Mukund Seshadri, Alice Zheng, Lei Li, Polo Chau, Nicholas Valler, Alex Beutel, Xuetao Wei Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

86 Acknowledgements Funding Prakash and Faloutsos 2012

87 Propagation on Large Networks
B. Aditya Prakash Christos Faloutsos Analysis Policy/Action Data Prakash and Faloutsos 2012


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