1. Groupthink
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2. What is groupthink?
groupthink occurs when a group makes faulty decisions because group pressures lead to a deterioration of “mental efficiency, reality testing, and moral judgment” (Irving Janis, 1972, p. 9).  
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3. Why should we care about groupthink?

4. Examples In the Last Fifty Years
Groupthink

5. Bay of Pigs Fiasco in 1961

6. US Escalation of the Vietnam War

7. Failed Rescue Attempt of Hostages at US Embassy in Iranpg

8. Challenger Disaster

9. 1987 Market Crash

10. 1989 Japanese Stock Market Crash

11. 2000 US Stock Market Bubble

12. 2000 US Stock Market Bubble

13. Financial Bubbles

14. US Invasion of Iraq: Groupthink

15. Predetermined Policy Decision about Iraq and Saddam Hussein

16. Symptoms of Groupthink
Illusion of invulnerability
Collective rationalization
Belief in inherent morality
Stereotyped views of out-groups
Direct pressure on dissenters
Self-censorship
Illusion of unanimity
Self-appointed ‘mindguards’

17. Illusion of Invulnerability
Creates excessive optimism that encourages taking extreme risks.

18. Collective Rationalization

19. Belief in Inherent Morality
Members believe in the rightness of their cause and therefore ignore the ethical or moral consequences of their decisions.

20. Stereotyped Views of Out-groups

21. Direct Pressure on Dissenters
Members are under pressure not to express arguments against any of the group’s views.

22. Self-censorship

23. Illusion of Unanimity The majority view and judgments are assumed to
be unanimous.

24. Self-appointed ‘mindguards’

25. Remedies for Groupthink
 The leader should assign the role of critical evaluator to each member
The leader should avoid stating preferences and expectations at the outset  
Each member of the group should routinely discuss the groups' deliberations with a trusted associate and report back to the group on the associate's reactions

26. More Remedies for Groupthink
One or more experts should be invited to each meeting on a staggered basis and encouraged to challenge views of the members.        
At least one member should be given the role of devil's advocate (to question assumptions and plans)
The leader should make sure that a sizeable block of time is set aside to survey warning signals.

27. Dealing with Dissenters
pressure not to express arguments against any of the administration’s actions.  

28. Imminent Danger from Weapons of Mass Destruction
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29. Limited Examination of Risks of Actions
failure to work out contingency plans

30. Self-appointed ‘mindguards’?

31. Janis’ Antecedent Conditions
very strong group cohesion was the primary antecedent condition for group think
normative and informational social influence should both be very powerful forces.
complemented by
group antecedent conditions
situational antecedent conditions

32. Group Antecedent Conditions
the insulation of the group from outside influences
the lack of a tradition of impartial leadership (i.e., directive leadership)
lack of group norms favoring methodical search procedures
homogeneity of member attitude or ideology

33. Situational Antecedent Conditions
high stress from an external threat,
group insulation from critics
low situational member self esteem
due to recent failure
de to complexity of the current decision problem

34. Symptoms of Groupthink
overestimation of the in-group (as strong, smart, invulnerable, morally superior)
corresponding negative stereotyping regarding the outgroup (as weak, immoral, vulnerable, stupid, and wrong)
close-mindedness (e.g. rationalization of doubt)
pressures for uniformity (via mindguards, self censorship, illusion of unanimity)

35. Defective Decision-making Processes
inadequate contingency plans for failure
inadequate information search, biased assessment of risks, costs, benefits and moral implications (e.g. inadequate consideration of worst case scenarios),
incomplete consideration of the full range of decision options
failure to reconsider the extent to which original/fundamental objectives were served by the advocated action.

36. Limitations
Experimental failure to verify Janis' antecedents

37. Baron's Ubiquity Model of Groupthink
social identification with the collection of individuals they are among.
linked by some common purpose, history, shared fate, or emotional orientation
Common allegiance and social identity
self-definition, and self esteem are strongly affected by one’s social allegiances
In-group members share their vested interests, values, limitations and frames of reference.

38. Ubiquity Model Social identification
deviance may threaten one’s self categorization as an in-group member
use of
cognitive distortion
semantic reinterpretation in an effort to minimize perceptions of social deviance and will
show drops in self esteem when such cognitive avoidance is difficult.

39. Ubiquity Model First antecedent Second antecedent Third antecedent
Social identification
Second antecedent
Group interaction and discussion must produce or reveal an emerging or dominant group norm
Third antecedent
low situational self efficacy in which group members generally lack confidence in their ability to reach satisfactory resolution of the conundrum facing them

40. Affect Control Theory
Institutions are created to reinforce significant social identities based upon fundamental shared affective orientations

41. Agreeableness/Disgust
Fundamental Emotions
Optimism/Pessimism
Economics
Anger/Contentment
Politics
Agreeableness/Disgust
Religion

42. What can we do about it?

43. Knowledge is Power http://www.wellingtonews.com/images/newspapers.gif

44. Think About Underlying Assumptions and Implications

45. Challenge Others to Think

46. www.robrogers.com/html2/ free_speech.html

47. Philosophy Critical Philosophy Dogmatic Philosophy
Death and ostracism as the punishment for disagreement with the group mind
Dogmatic Philosophy
Reinforces the existing order

48. The Crisis of Our Time Our time is similar to the times of Plato
The end of the Classical period
The end of the Athenian Empire
End of a major cycle
The end of a 200-year philosophy of competitive individualism
The end of the American Empire

49. The Crisis of Our Times