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INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND WATER MANAGEMENT Hydrological applications of COSMO model Andrzej Mazur Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Centre.

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Presentation on theme: "INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND WATER MANAGEMENT Hydrological applications of COSMO model Andrzej Mazur Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Centre."— Presentation transcript:

1 INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND WATER MANAGEMENT Hydrological applications of COSMO model Andrzej Mazur Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Centre of Numerical Weather Forecasts 61 Podleśna str., PL-01673 Warsaw, Poland

2 Hydrological applications of COSMO model Contents 4. Conclusions 1. Goal 2. Methods 3. Results

3 Hydrological applications of COSMO model 1. Forecast of precipitation (of course)… What is needed of DMO for precipitation-runoff models? 2. … together with air temperature While precipitation is obviously the main driving factor for a hydrological model, the temperature data provides information on the state of the precipitation and the available potential for evapotranspiration Goal

4 Hydrological applications of COSMO model Methods

5 Hydrological applications of COSMO model where: y - measurement vector b - multiple regression coefficients (time dependent) h - predictors - model forecast values Q - error covariance r - observational error P - forecast covariance e - forecast error w - temporary scalar k - Kalman gain

6 Hydrological applications of COSMO model Results of experiments for selected days/periods for temperature and precipitation: - June 30, 2007 – change from COSMO version 3.05 to 4.0 - January 01, 2008 – six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs - August 04, 2008 – heavy storm over Poland (part I) - August 15, 2008 – heavy storm over Poland (part II) and only for precipitation – increased resolution computations, heavy precipitation (mainly convective type): - May 04, 2005 - June 10, 2005 - August 09, 2005 Results

7 Hydrological applications of COSMO model End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007 Results of June 30, 2007 – air temperature (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)

8 End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007 Bias of June 30, 2007 – air temperature (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results) Hydrological applications of COSMO model

9 End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007 Results of June 30, 2007 – air temperature. Morning model run, AR results (left-most charts), DMO (middle) and measurement-derived fields (right-most) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Hydrological applications of COSMO model

10 First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs Results of January 01, 2008 – air temperature (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results) Hydrological applications of COSMO model

11 Bias of January 01, 2008 – air temperature (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results) First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs Hydrological applications of COSMO model

12 Results of Jan. 01, 2008 – air temperature. Morning model run, AR results (left-most charts), DMO (middle) and measurement-derived fields (right-most) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs Hydrological applications of COSMO model

13 Output, hourbiasRMSE AR, 06:00-0.4062.522 DMO, 06:00-0.5132.740 AR, 12:00-1.4763.228 DMO, 12:00-1.6154.305 AR, 18:00-1.2983.570 DMO, 18:00-1.9424.976 Output, hourbiasRMSE AR, 06:000.2411.750 DMO, 06:000.6901.870 AR, 12:000.1691.906 DMO, 12:001.2742.538 AR, 18:000.3131.786 DMO, 18:001.7412.697 Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecast June 30, 2007January 01, 2008 Hydrological applications of COSMO model

14 Results of Aug. 04, 2008 – air temperature. Morning model run, AR results (left-most charts), DMO (middle) and measurement-derived fields (right-most) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Heavy storms over Poland, August 04, 2008 Hydrological applications of COSMO model

15 Heavy storms over Poland, August 15, 2008 Results of Aug. 15, 2008 – air temperature. Morning model run, AR results (left-most charts), DMO (middle) and measurement-derived fields (right-most) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Hydrological applications of COSMO model

16 Output, hourbiasRMSE AR, 06:00-0.1072.193 DMO, 06:00-0.1772.438 AR, 12:00-1.0733.804 DMO, 12:00-4.5525.906 AR, 18:00-1.9353.873 DMO, 18:00-5.1336.448 Output, hourbiasRMSE AR, 06:000.1262.307 DMO, 06:000.1302.438 AR, 12:000.6642.579 DMO, 12:000.9862.989 AR, 18:000.4332.436 DMO, 18:000.6832.915 Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecast August 04, 2008 August 15, 2008 Hydrological applications of COSMO model

17 End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007 Results of June 30, 2007 – precipitation (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results) Hydrological applications of COSMO model

18 End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007 Bias of June 30, 2007 – precipitation (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results) Hydrological applications of COSMO model

19 End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007 Results of June 30, 2007 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount. Hydrological applications of COSMO model

20 Results of January 01, 2008 – precipitation (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results) First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs Hydrological applications of COSMO model

21 Bias of January 01, 2008 – precipitation (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results) First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs Hydrological applications of COSMO model

22 Results of Jan. 01, 2008 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount. First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs Hydrological applications of COSMO model

23 Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecast June 30, 2007January 01, 2008 Output, hourbiasRMSE AR, 06:000.3111.154 DMO, 06:000.7741.307 AR, 12:000.2231.248 DMO, 12:000.8941.349 AR, 18:001.4502.118 DMO, 18:001.7742.358 Output, hourbiasRMSE AR, 06:000.3181.526 DMO, 06:000.3281.566 AR, 12:000.0920.662 DMO, 12:000.1050.674 AR, 18:000.1530.901 DMO, 18:000.1760.915 Hydrological applications of COSMO model

24 Results of Aug. 04, 2008 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount. Heavy storms over Poland, August 04, 2008 Hydrological applications of COSMO model

25 Heavy storms over Poland, August 15, 2008 Results of Aug. 15, 2008 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount. Hydrological applications of COSMO model

26 Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecast August 04, 2008 August 15, 2008 Output, hourbiasRMSE AR, 06:001.0104.146 DMO, 06:001.7274.504 AR, 12:000.2153.079 DMO, 12:000.4733.221 AR, 18:001.4375.264 DMO, 18:002.0895.648 Output, hourbiasRMSE AR, 06:000.9986.251 DMO, 06:001.8746.563 AR, 12:000.2584.854 DMO, 12:00-0.9456.472 AR, 18:002.3329.983 DMO, 18:003.47310.148 Hydrological applications of COSMO model

27 Results of May 04, 2005 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount. Increased resolution model runs Hydrological applications of COSMO model

28 Results of June 10, 2005 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Increased resolution model runs

29 Results of Aug. 09, 2005 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Increased resolution model runs

30 Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecast, May 04, 2005, June 10, 2005 August 09, 2005. Output, hourbiasRMSE AR, 06:003.2257.452 DMO, 06:003.7797.862 AR, 12:000.4617.298 DMO, 12:001.7279.049 AR, 18:003.2957.701 DMO, 18:005.1658.427 Output, hourbiasRMSE AR, 06:002.9708.503 DMO, 06:003.98611.517 AR, 12:002.1346.775 DMO, 12:002.4136.953 AR, 18:003.97211.681 DMO, 18:004.65913.720 Output, hourbiasRMSE AR, 06:00-0.1863.324 DMO, 06:00-1.1905.858 AR, 12:00-1.4725.316 DMO, 12:00-3.6369.077 AR, 18:000.3527.676 DMO, 18:00-1.6869.964 Hydrological applications of COSMO model

31 Air temperature RMSE changes during period August 01, 2008 to August 21, 2008 (DMO and AR results shown). Precipitation RMSE changes during period August 01, 2008 to August 21, 2008 (DMO and AR results shown). Hydrological applications of COSMO model

32 Temperature forecast corrections, easier to develop, seem also to be more stable during a learning process (no sudden/drastic changes of coefficients over the entire period). Method – even in this simple approach – is able to “detect” and correct not only any factor aside of the model, but also systematic errors in its results. The change of COSMO model version (from 3.05 to reference version 4.0) has not significant (clearly visible) influence on time-evolvement of coefficients. Precipitation seems to be well-posed as far as the predictors are concerned. Geographical coordinates, elevation, time of measurement and previous measured and forecasted values seem to be fairly set for the purpose. Of course, artificial, but obvious constrain has always to be applied – corrected forecast value of precipitation must not be less than zero. Additional problem with precipitation forecast correction - correction process is hardly able to “create” any amount of precipitation from “nothing”. If DMO forecast predicts no rain at a certain point, it’s not possible to obtain a non-zero (or significant amount of) precipitation using AR scheme. Results are sensitive to data continuity of some kind – the more data available, the faster scheme converges and further changes of coefficients are smaller and smaller. If there was a significant lack of data, rapid changes of coefficients and statistic values was seen. Conclusions Hydrological applications of COSMO model

33 Thank you for your attention. IMGW 01-673 Warszawa, ul.: Podleśna 61 tel.: (022) 56 94 134 fax: (022) 56 94 356 mobile: 0 503 122 134 andrzej.mazur@imgw.pl www.imgw.pl

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