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Comparing alternative methodologies to estimate the effects of fiscal policy by Roberto Perotti Discussant: Evi Pappa, UAB and CEPR.

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Presentation on theme: "Comparing alternative methodologies to estimate the effects of fiscal policy by Roberto Perotti Discussant: Evi Pappa, UAB and CEPR."— Presentation transcript:

1 Comparing alternative methodologies to estimate the effects of fiscal policy by Roberto Perotti Discussant: Evi Pappa, UAB and CEPR

2 Problems in Empirically Identifying Fiscal Shocks Interaction with Monetary Policy Shocks Fiscal Policy endogeneity. Predictability of Fiscal Shocks Nonfundamentalness. Limited number of identifying restrictions supported by theory.

3 Existing methods for identifying fiscal shocks Episodes school (Dummy variable): Rotemberg - Woodford (1992), Ramey- Shapiro (1999), Burnside et al.(2003), Cavallo (2003) Ζero-identifying restrictions (SVAR): Blanchard-Perotti (2002), Gali et.al.(2003), Fatas and Mihov (2001) Sign restrictions: Mountford and Uhlig (2003), Canova-Pappa (2003), Pappa(2005)

4 This paper: very important methodological contribution Compares Dummy with SVAR approach Identifies the source of differences in results  solves a puzzle Poses a question for the responses of real wages after a fiscal shock

5 What I will do today? I will add what is missing.

6 The sign restriction approach : ADVANTAGES No zero (conventional) short/ long run restrictions  no identification acrobatics All reduced form shocks have, in principle, information for structural shocks in every equation  no under-identification problem Theory based restrictions  fiscal shocks are allowed to affect all variables at the same time  no endogeneity problem Restrictions in contemporaneous correlation matrix, no delay restrictions are used  no predictability problem

7 Theory based restrictions +Deficits increase after a fiscal expansion contemporaneously

8 Data I used: all the same with Roberto except pc net taxes, I substitute with net government saving

9 Response of consumption after a G shock

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11 Korean shock: cor(G,Y)>0, cor(G,DF)=0

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13 The labor markets: business sector compensation and hours

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15 KOREAN shock identification: cor(G,Y)>0, cor(G,DF)=0

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17 The labor market: sample 1954:1 onwards

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19 Conclusions  Everybody should by now agree that:  Private consumption increases after a shock to government spending, but Korea  Hours increase after a shock to government spending  Real wages seem to increase  But, for all sample and all identification schemes business sector compensation (BSC) moves insignificantly.  With SIGN approach, excluding Korean episode, also BSC increases significantly.  Question: Can NK model give a common explanations for Korean episode and SVAR and SIGN shocks?


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