1. SOUTHERN REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE ATLANTA, GEORGIA SEPTEMBER 25-27, 2000 DAVID KENYON DEPT. OF AGRICULTURAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS VIRGINIA TECH BLACKSBURG, VIRGINIA PHONE: 540-231-6847 EMAIL: DKENYON@VT.EDU GRAIN PRICE UPDATE

2. CORN BALANCE SHEET ITEM95/9696/9797/9898/9999/00 PLANTED71.279.5 80.277.4 HARVESTED65.073.172.772.670.5 YIELD113.5127.1126.7134.4133.8 PRODUCTION7,3749,2939,2079,7619,437 BEGIN STOCKS1,5584268831,3081,787 SUPPLY8,9489,73310,09911,08511,239 FEED4,6825,3625,5055,4725,625 FSI1,6121,6911,7821,8461,920 EXPORTS2,2281,7951,5041,9811,925 USE8,5228,8498,7919,2989,470 END STOCKS4268841,3081,7751,769 PRICE$3.24$2.70$2.43$1.94$1.80 WASDE, 9/12/00,

4. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE CORN SUPPLY AND DEMAND 99-00 00-01 ITEMSEPTMARMAYJUNJULAUGSEPT PLANT77.477.9 79.6 HARVEST70.571.271.1 73.1 YIELD133.8131.6137.0 141.9141.8 PRODN9,4379,3709,740 10,01310,36910,362 BEG STOCKS1,7871,7391,7841,7591,8191,7941,769 IMPORT15 10 SUPPLY11,23911,12411,53411,50911,84212,17412,142 FEED5,6255,6505,6755,7005,6505,7005,750 FSI1,9201,9401,975 1,960 1,975 EXPORT1,9251,9501,9001,9752.0502,1252,175 DEMAND9,4709,5409,5509,6509,6609,7859,900 END STOCK1,7691,5841,9841,8592,1822,3892,242 AVE PRICE1.802.201.801.851.701.651.70 WASDE, 9/12/00,

5. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE SOUTHERN REGION CORN PRODUCTION STATE19992000 1,000 Bushels VA21,84040,500 KY123,900166,370 TN58,14063,720 NC51,20072,600 SC19,25019,600 GA30,90034,000 AL20,60011,200 MS36,27039,140 LA39,93036,720 AR13,00022,200 TOTAL415,030506,050 Crop Production, 9/12/2000.

6. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE CORN STOCKS AND PRICE U.S. Season Average Cash Price ($/bu) U.S. Ending Stocks (mil bu) Price = 7.71-0.748 * Ln (Ending Stocks) R 2 =0.82

7. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE CORN COMBINED DEC 1999 CHART

8. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE CORN DECEMBER 2000 CHART

10. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA CORN PRICE CHANGE (YEARS WHEN HARVEST PRICE < 247 CENTS)* YEAR OCTOBER WEEK 3 MARCH WEEK 32CHANGE Cents per bushel 82/8321631599 85/8622824719 86/8717919011 87/8817322350 91/9222828052 92/9321824123 94/9521926849 98/9921523318 99/0021023323 Average21024838 *1980-1999 average week 3 price is 247 cents.

11. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE CORN STORAGE SEPT. 19, 2000$/BU MARCH 01 FUTURES2.00 SOUTHEAST CASH1.67 BEGIN MARCH BASIS (-25 TO 7)-0.33 END MARCH BASIS (JAN: 4 TO 44) 0.22 BASIS CHANGE 0.55 STORAGE COSTS-0.20 2¢ MONTH * 5 MONTHS = 0.12 $2.00 *.10 * 5/12 = 0.08 RETURNS TO STORAGE0.35

12. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE SELL CASH, BUY MAY CALL OPTION SEPTEMBER 15 MARCH 15 YEARMAY FUTURESSTRIKE PRICE CALL PREM OPTION RETURN 19852352408.001.25- 6.75 198618218011.250.25- 11.00 198719419014.5014.75+ 0.25 198830831022.000.75- 21.25 198924224015.0011.00- 4.00 1990250 14.0011.00- 3.00 199126827014.505.75- 8.75 19922352409.750.38- 9.37 199325225012.5030.00+ 17.50 199424124011.258.75- 2.50 199532533017.2060.00+ 42.80 199632933018.400.00- 18.40 199727728015.50.50- 15.00 1998230 15.752.25- 13.50 1999230 14.7510.50- 4.25 AveN/A 14.2910.48- 3.81

13. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE CORN SUPPLY AND DEMAND 00-01*01-02** ITEMSEPTSEPT 00 PLANT79.678.1 HARVEST73.171.1 YIELD141.8134.01 PRODN10,3629,527 BEG STOCKS1,7692,242 IMPORT10 SUPPLY12,14211,779 FEED5,7505,865 FSI1,9752,035 EXPORT2,1752,100 DEMAND9,90010,000 END STOCK2,2421,779 AVE PRICE1.702.15 *WASDE, SEPT. 2000. ** SPARKS COMMODITIES, 9/15/00

14. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE CORN DECEMBER 2001 CHART

16. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE WHEAT BALANCE SHEET ITEM95/9696/9797/9898/9999/00 PLANTED69.175.670.465.862.8 HARVESTED60.962.962.859.053.9 YIELD35.836.339.543.242.7 PRODUCTION2,1832,2852,4812,5472,302 BEGIN STOCKS507376444722946 SUPPLY2,7572,7533,0203,3733,343 FOOD883892914908925 FEED153314251396286 SEED104103928192 EXPORTS1,2411,0011,0401,0421,090 DEMAND2,3812,3102,2982,4272,393 END STOCKS 376 444 722 946 950 PRICE$4.55$4.30$3.38$2.65$2.48 WASDE, 9/12/00,

18. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE WHEAT SUPPLY AND DEMAND 99-00 00-01 ITEMSEPTMARMAYJUNJULAUGSEP PLANT62.861.7 62.9 HARVEST53.953.552.5 54.4 YIELD42.739.642.642.141.241.642.3 PRODN2,3022,1192,2392,2122,2432,2632,302 BEG STOCKS946997938917950 IMPORT9010095100 SUPPLY3,3383,2163,2723,2293,2933,3133,352 FOOD910915925935 940 SEED90 85 86 FEED325395300275225 EXPORT1,0751,0501,125 1,100 1,125 DEMAND2,4002,4502,4352,4202,3462,3512,376 END STOCK938766837809947962976 AVE PRICE2.502.942.702.652.50 WASDE, 9/12/00,

19. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE WHEAT STOCKS AND PRICE U.S. Ending Stocks (mil bu) U.S. Season Average Cash Price ($/bu) Price = 15.89 – 1.95 * Ln (Ending Stocks) R 2 = 0.82

21. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE WHEAT STORAGE JUNE 12, 2000$/BU DEC. WHEAT FUTURES2.94 WAKEFIELD CASH2.11 BEGIN JUNE BASIS-0.83 END DEC. BASIS (-20 TO –50)-0.34 BASIS CHANGE0.49 STORAGE COSTS0.23 2¢ MONTH * 6 MONTHS = 0.12 $2.11 *.10 * 6/12 = 0.11 RETURNS TO STORAGE0.26

22. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE SELL CASH AND BUY DEC. CALL OPTION JUNE 12, 2000$/BU WAKEFIELD CASH2.11 DEC. FUTURES2.94 290 DEC. CALL OPTION0.21 300 DEC. CALL OPTION0.17 SEPTEMBER 19, 2000 WAKEFIELD CASH 1.82 DEC. FUTURES 2.49 290 DEC. CALL OPTION0.02

23. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE WHEAT SUPPLY AND DEMAND 00-01* 01-02** ITEMSEPTSEPT 00 PLANT62.961.4 HARVEST54.453.6 YIELD42.342.0 PRODN2,3022,251 BEG STOCKS950976 IMPORT100 SUPPLY3,3523,327 FOOD940975 SEED8685 FEED225 EXPORT1,1251,100 DEMAND2,3762,385 END STOCK976942 AVE PRICE2.50 *WASDE, SEPT. 2000. ** SPARKS COMMODITIES, 9/15/00

24. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE WHEAT JULY 2000 CHART

25. GRAIN PRICE UPDATE WHEAT JULY 2001 CHART