1. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Put Your Marketing Plan To The Test John Otte Bryce Knorr

2. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Another Time, Another Place

3. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Your Challenge 937.5 acres of corn 160 bpa trend yield = 150000 expected bu $655 cost of production, includes trend- adjusted RP @ 85% On-farm storage cost 3 cents/mo. 100,000 bu. on-farm storage

4. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING The Rules Make a 2014 plan with spot sales, cash contracts and/or options. Zero basis Sell at harvest 10/15/14 or on-farm storage only. Seven windows: Jan (Now!), March, Summer, Harvest, Nov/Dec, Jan/March (‘15), April/July (‘15) 2014 crop must be sold by Sept. 1, 2015 Random selection, according to historical probabilities

5. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Put Your Plan Together

6. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Our forecast headed into Jan. 10 USDA reports

7. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Odds Favor Small Decrease In Stocks

8. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Choices

9. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING No Change In Ending Stocks On Jan. 10

10. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Surprise Likely

11. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Choices

12. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Put Protection

13. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING March Planting Intentions Are Down 2% From Expectations

14. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Small, Medium Or Large Rally?

15. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Choices

16. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING May Sale

17. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Weather Rally! June/July rally is 17% over Jan. 1 price, or $5.245.

18. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Choices

19. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING John’s Choice

20. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Yields Skew Good

21. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Bumper Crop: Yields Are 12% Above Trend. 167,062 bu Average Harvest Futures $3.35 (July ‘15 $3.70)

22. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Harvest Results

23. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING John’s Results

24. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Post-Harvest Odds

25. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Post-Harvest

26. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Small Fall Rebound 2% rally to only $3.775

27. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Year-End

28. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Year-End

29. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Winter Odds

30. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Market Stalls 1% rally to only $3.7375

31. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Spring/Summer Odds

32. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Winter Results

33. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Price Finally Collapse Rally high of $3.33 is 10% below harvest

34. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Last Gasp

35. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Dice Roll

36. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Late Summer Odds

37. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Late Rally Helps Sept. 1 price equals $3.70

38. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Final Results

39. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Average: $4.14