1. Quarterly Public Sector Finances for Scotland (Experimental) Sandy Stewart OCEA

2. Historic analysis GERS 2004-05 Chapter 7 – Long-term developments Graphs – (all excluding North Sea) Scot & UK –Government expenditure (percentage of GDP) –Government receipts (percentage of GDP) –Receipts and Expenditure – Scot/UK –Expenditure per capita – Scotland, UK=100 –Net borrowing –Net borrowing as % of GDP

3. Revenue as a share of GDP: Scotland and UK

4. Problems Expenditure –Errors in CRA analysis –Linked estimates, not time series –Not aligned to PSF data Revenue –Some crude approximations –Linked estimates, not time series –Not aligned to PSF data Accounting Adjustments –Errors in assumptions –Crude analysis

5. Developing work - 1 Revenue –UK data available quarterly, back to 1980, at very detailed level –Annual and quarterly apportionments derived, consistent with GERS –North Sea assumptions using DECC and Kemp information Expenditure –Recent GERS analysis from 2004-05

6. Developing work - 2 –UK – PESA Trends analysis –Scotland – some real data, some apportionment Constraining to UK PSF totals – revenue, current and capital expenditure– quarterly Accounting adjustments – same treatment as in GERS – consistency between revenue and expenditure All still “Work in Progress”