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Investment workstream 19 May 2009 Cross-border gas transmission‏ Investment project (I1) Conclusions workshop Dublin.

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Presentation on theme: "Investment workstream 19 May 2009 Cross-border gas transmission‏ Investment project (I1) Conclusions workshop Dublin."— Presentation transcript:

1 Investment workstream 19 May 2009 Cross-border gas transmission‏ Investment project (I1) Conclusions workshop Dublin

2 2 Investment workstream, GRI NW Conclusions (1) The model - as a means of stresstesting investment framework and having dialogue on the framework - was presented and approved in general subject to: - enhancing by 8 June of level of detail by 4 regulators with kms/tso, 4 national parameter sets, risk mitigation reflection (link to investment trigger discussion) - by 25 May additional comments on model are invited (please try to focus on 3-4 main issues) Core group shall consider comments and question in pragmatic way to allow for start of the test after SG on 9 June. The comments not considered shall be argumented and noted in “test journal “ The bidding process was approved in general as basis for the conducting test during June – August 2009 subject to: Limited time, therefore at least 8 shippers requested to be supported by EFET before 31 May Interactive version, 2 rounds at least, KISS; fallback is illustrative version of the bidding process

3 3 Investment workstream, GRI NW Conclusions (2) The questions to be addressed in “journal of findings” for discussion in September are: Concept of Investment trigger (we start with 60-80 % PV as illustrative number; and subject to adding risk mitigation tools to reflect qualitative nature of investment trigger in various national frameworks) as means to enable transparent risk distribution dialogue Various risk mitigation tools available (20 years, inv. budgets) Bidding process design as a way to economically test the demand Stabilisation of tariffs (IRR/WACC) SIZE of RAB effect National issues reflection now left out (time delay; reg. periods; regulatory risk like ex-post assesment) Incentives for TSO to keep CAPEX and OPEX low Explicit assumptions (eg no reverse flow; booking assumptions) Mention any further work after test eg like hub-hub approach (vs e/e)

4 4 Investment workstream, GRI NW Conclusions (3) Manual discussion 1. By 8th of June 2009 the manual will be filled in for frameworks of Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and France - Seek advise of RCC on 8 June on the way to include stakeholders opinion to ensure usability of manual for the project. 2. By 24 September 2009 (workshop) overview of all nine regulatory frameworks of GRI NW The “Tilburg” case The presentation by Bastian Henze was welcomed in general subject to notes of concern on translating findings to gas market (stranded assets; monopoly of actual projects; the actual demand development) It showed that bidding processes like auctions can add value in finding appropriate aggregated level of investment Mr. Henze was invited to submit his final report before September workshop to core group for general consideration on lessons learned in terms of bidding processes Explicit assumptions in final report, i.a. on transparency of available information to participants of test

5 5 Investment workstream, GRI NW Conclusions on process (4) Core group assembled to lead the test untill presentation of preliminary test findings on 24.09: Shippers support (Mike Young, Adam Cooper, Martijn van Gemert) TSOs support (Bas Barten, GUD and/or Wingas Transport join subject to withdrawal note at by latest by 30 May 2009) Regulatory support (EK as facilitator (Kristien van de Laar, Ariane Kruijtzer); CREG ) Reference group remains same with addition of BNetzA, StatoilHydro and Poweo due to their step back from core group. GUD and/or Wingas stay in reference group if they don’t join core group Comments to core group on any intermediate documents

6 6 Investment workstream, GRI NW Time path as agreed (5) Final fine-tuning comments on model for core group to Erik Rakhou and Kristien van de Laar by 25 May Reaction by GUD and Wingas Transport on participation in core group by 30 May Shipper support by 31 May (if no support, fallback to illustrative bidding) Final model and Manual filled in for 4 frameworks by 8 June Seek by 8 June RCC advise on Manual process (online) 8 June – 15 July the shipper reactions to the test (incl. 2 rounds) Mtgs on 8 June and last week July to test progress and discuss draft findings 2 nd week of August draft report for September and agenda for Stockholm 17 September final agenda workshop and docs 24 September workshop (discuss draft test findings, manual filled in)


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