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Advances in Fundamental Climate Dynamics 1984-2004 John M. Wallace et al.
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1976-1984 zonal avg. vs. eddy---> time avg. vs. transients decomposition of transients by frequency regional jet streams, storm tracks teleconnection patterns ENSO
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1976-1984 Rossby-wave dispersion on a sphere baroclinic wave life cycles Eliassen-Palm flux theory of the Hadley circulation linear response to local heat source boundary forcing of low frequency transients conceptual understanding of ENSO
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Why so much progress? Going beyond “channel vision” Gridded datasets AGCM simulations
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1984 - 2004
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New resources superior gridded datasets, longer records extended AGCM runs ensemble AGCM runs coupled GCM runs better graphics (GrADS)
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New challenges dynamical extended range forecasting seasonal to interannual climate prediction decadal climate variability human induced climate change
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1984-2004 New phenomena
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downstream development
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Baroclinic wave life cycles LC1, LC2
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midwinter suppression of Pacific storm track
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annular modes
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NAM surface air temperature anomalies 1979-97
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Stratospheric influence on tropospheric circulation
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Long timescale Time Delay From Baldwin and Dunkerton, Science 244, 581-584, 2001
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Nonlinearities
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Correlation with Great Plains summer rainfall 1904-1997 summertime teleconnections SST
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Rainfall
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200 mb height
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Coupled atmosphere-ocean phenomena
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The ENSO “hangover”
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tropical Atlantic Ocean dipole
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Indian Ocean dipole
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation
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Indian Ocean sea surface temperature
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familiar patterns in decadal variability
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1984-2004 New concepts
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Extratropical wave pump
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Singular Vectors, LIM’s
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Free and forced response to extratropical boundary forcing
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2004-2024
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New Challenges
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A more holistic view of climate
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Paleoclimate
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Addressing the gap between simulation and understanding in climate modeling Isaac Held “…we cannot limit ourselves to the search for simple concepts” “…research with a hierarchy of models is needed” Research must contribute to model development Research must contribute to understanding “ Elegance versus realism”
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Modeling models 2-layer quasi-geostrophic model. Upper layer potential vorticity. Beta-plane Statistically steady, zonally homogeneous, baroclinically unstable jet. the climate scientist’s “e coli”
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AO NAO COWL PNA AIS
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