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Advances in Fundamental Climate Dynamics 1984-2004 John M. Wallace et al.

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Presentation on theme: "Advances in Fundamental Climate Dynamics 1984-2004 John M. Wallace et al."— Presentation transcript:

1 Advances in Fundamental Climate Dynamics 1984-2004 John M. Wallace et al.

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3 1976-1984 zonal avg. vs. eddy---> time avg. vs. transients decomposition of transients by frequency regional jet streams, storm tracks teleconnection patterns ENSO

4 1976-1984 Rossby-wave dispersion on a sphere baroclinic wave life cycles Eliassen-Palm flux theory of the Hadley circulation linear response to local heat source boundary forcing of low frequency transients conceptual understanding of ENSO

5 Why so much progress? Going beyond “channel vision” Gridded datasets AGCM simulations

6 1984 - 2004

7 New resources superior gridded datasets, longer records extended AGCM runs ensemble AGCM runs coupled GCM runs better graphics (GrADS)

8 New challenges dynamical extended range forecasting seasonal to interannual climate prediction decadal climate variability human induced climate change

9 1984-2004 New phenomena

10 downstream development

11 Baroclinic wave life cycles LC1, LC2

12 midwinter suppression of Pacific storm track

13 annular modes

14 NAM surface air temperature anomalies 1979-97

15 Stratospheric influence on tropospheric circulation

16 Long timescale Time Delay From Baldwin and Dunkerton, Science 244, 581-584, 2001

17 Nonlinearities

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19 Correlation with Great Plains summer rainfall 1904-1997 summertime teleconnections SST

20 Rainfall

21 200 mb height

22 Coupled atmosphere-ocean phenomena

23 The ENSO “hangover”

24 tropical Atlantic Ocean dipole

25 Indian Ocean dipole

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27 Pacific Decadal Oscillation

28 Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

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30 familiar patterns in decadal variability

31 1984-2004 New concepts

32 Extratropical wave pump

33 Singular Vectors, LIM’s

34 Free and forced response to extratropical boundary forcing

35 2004-2024

36 New Challenges

37 A more holistic view of climate

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40 Paleoclimate

41 Addressing the gap between simulation and understanding in climate modeling Isaac Held “…we cannot limit ourselves to the search for simple concepts” “…research with a hierarchy of models is needed” Research must contribute to model development Research must contribute to understanding “ Elegance versus realism”

42 Modeling models 2-layer quasi-geostrophic model. Upper layer potential vorticity. Beta-plane Statistically steady, zonally homogeneous, baroclinically unstable jet. the climate scientist’s “e coli”

43 AO NAO COWL PNA AIS


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