1. Advances in Fundamental Climate Dynamics 1984-2004 John M. Wallace et al.

3. 1976-1984 zonal avg. vs. eddy---> time avg. vs. transients decomposition of transients by frequency regional jet streams, storm tracks teleconnection patterns ENSO

4. 1976-1984 Rossby-wave dispersion on a sphere baroclinic wave life cycles Eliassen-Palm flux theory of the Hadley circulation linear response to local heat source boundary forcing of low frequency transients conceptual understanding of ENSO

5. Why so much progress? Going beyond “channel vision” Gridded datasets AGCM simulations

6. 1984 - 2004

7. New resources superior gridded datasets, longer records extended AGCM runs ensemble AGCM runs coupled GCM runs better graphics (GrADS)

8. New challenges dynamical extended range forecasting seasonal to interannual climate prediction decadal climate variability human induced climate change

9. 1984-2004 New phenomena

10. downstream development

11. Baroclinic wave life cycles LC1, LC2

12. midwinter suppression of Pacific storm track

13. annular modes

14. NAM surface air temperature anomalies 1979-97

15. Stratospheric influence on tropospheric circulation

16. Long timescale Time Delay From Baldwin and Dunkerton, Science 244, 581-584, 2001

17. Nonlinearities

19. Correlation with Great Plains summer rainfall 1904-1997 summertime teleconnections SST

20. Rainfall

21. 200 mb height

22. Coupled atmosphere-ocean phenomena

23. The ENSO “hangover”

24. tropical Atlantic Ocean dipole

25. Indian Ocean dipole

27. Pacific Decadal Oscillation

28. Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

30. familiar patterns in decadal variability

31. 1984-2004 New concepts

32. Extratropical wave pump

33. Singular Vectors, LIM’s

34. Free and forced response to extratropical boundary forcing

35. 2004-2024

36. New Challenges

37. A more holistic view of climate

40. Paleoclimate

41. Addressing the gap between simulation and understanding in climate modeling Isaac Held “…we cannot limit ourselves to the search for simple concepts” “…research with a hierarchy of models is needed” Research must contribute to model development Research must contribute to understanding “ Elegance versus realism”

42. Modeling models 2-layer quasi-geostrophic model. Upper layer potential vorticity. Beta-plane Statistically steady, zonally homogeneous, baroclinically unstable jet. the climate scientist’s “e coli”

43. AO NAO COWL PNA AIS