1. Can We Afford our Future? STICERD 25th Anniversary Lecture www.lse.ac.uk/eventsConference and Events Office Emeritus Professor Howard Glennerster FBA ESRC Professor John Hills LSE, Chair

2. Can we afford our future? Howard Glennerster

3. Population structure, 2001 and 2051

6. Age distribution of welfare spending, 2001

7. No Problem! Demography has a small impact The UK has already taken the steps necessary on pensions The problem is self correcting

8. Treasury projections, age related spending (% GDP) HealthEducationPensionsL-T care OtherTotal 2001/26.34.65.00.921.738.6 2011/1 2 8.25.95.01.220.340.6 2031/29.35.85.21.220.041.3 2051/29.85.74.81.219.340.8

9. Age related spending, % GDP 2001/22051additional Health 6.3 9.8+ 3.5 Education 4.6 5.7+ 1.1 Long Term Care 0.9 1.4+ 0.5 Pensions and other 65+benefits 5.59.1+ 3.6 Total ++ 8.7

10. Our future? Paying more in tax Reducing mid life consumption patterns Working longer Getting used to lower incomes in retirement

11. A Feasible Future Private saving based on a secure state platform Base line above means test Higher full pension age Secure against private system and personal risks Redress gender inequalities in private schemes

12. Dutch citizens’ pension Drawn at 65 (women earlier if not working) Entitlement over 50 years of residence Contributions as a percentage income tax Pension takes virtually all off means tests Adjusted as wages rise – linked to minimum wage

13. Advantages Incentive to join funded schemes Simple No complex contribution records Does not disadvantage women and those with limited lifetime work records Progressive funding

14. Modifications Generosity linked to political feasibility Employer contributions could be kept Age at which get pension could be 68 Years to qualify negotiable Pensions needed for those incapable of full work