1. Kasper Kok Session 14.3 – Panel on: Scaling in Integrated Assessment

2. Background Rotmans, J & Rothman, D.S. (Eds.). 2003. Scaling in Integrated Assessment. Swets & Zeitlinger B.V., Lisse, the Netherlands. Based on an International Workshop: Scaling Issues in Integrated Assessment 12-19 July 2000, Mechelen, the Netherlands Organised by the International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS) Sponsored by the European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment (EIFEA) Second of so-called “Matrix” workshops addressed specific methodological topics relevant to IA.

3. Scale and Integrated Assessment Scale is at the heart of IA because: - IA addresses complex issues - IA involves a large range of scales (climate change!) - IA is multidisciplinary, including policy makers

4. Environment Economy Society SCENE model Institutional

5. Some definitions Level: Level of organization inherent to the system Also referred to as functional scale Scale: Level of observation With two components,temporal and spatial scale that both have two aspects, resolution and extent

6. Functional scale or hierarchically nested levels Slow, large+1 0 Focal level Fast, small

7. Log time (years) Log space (meters) Leaf Crown days Tree Stand Forest Branch Landscape months year century decade cm m 100m 100km Examples of functional scales

8. Spatial scale

9. (Spatial) scale effect

10. Scale and geography

11. Correlation coffee and forest spatial resolution + - +1

12. Individual behaviour Behaviour of groups Behaviour of society Scale in Social Sciences

13. Microeconomists’ definition of scale: “Increasing return to scale is an increase of inputs that results in a more than proportional increase of outputs.” Macroeconomy versus microeconomy Avoid confusion…

14. Drivingforces of LUCC

15. watersheds AEZ Integration? individual village country household country

16. Scaling in Integrated Assessment Problems Why does scale matter? -- Wilbanks Scale in social sciences -- Evans Scale in economics-- Jaeger, Van der Veen Solutions Strategic Cyclical Scaling -- Root and Schneider The Syndrome Approach-- Schellnhuber, Petschel-Held ABMS and participation-- Pahl-Wostl Integration Emergent properties-- Easterling Hierachy Theory and Holons-- Giampietro Transition (management)-- Rotmans Other Multi-scale scenarios-- Kok