1. Funding from: BOF, Odysseus & GOA (KU Leuven), EC-FP7 (Soteria, www.soteria-space.eu)www.soteria-space.eu Giovanni Lapenta, Lapo Bettarini Centrum voor Plasma-Astrofysica - Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Belgium) with help from Tibor Torok SOTERIA Initiation Challenge

2. Report Deliverable 3.3

4. We propose for us and to the community a CME/flare initiation challenge and benchmark How different physics and resolution affects the evolution Steps taken for starting the challenge

5. CME/Flare start model

6. Compare different models: Ideal MHD Resistive MHD Different resitivities Zero beta MHD Two fluid and kinetic Useful benchmark for different codes now and in the future Where and how reconnection develops How fast does the prominence raise Tajima, Shibata, Plasma Astrophysics Goals of the challenge

7. FLIP3D-MHDAMR-VACPLUTOECHO 90’s - now 2005 - now Brackbill - Lapenta Toth - Keppens University of Turin University of Florence Fluid Physics Simulations

8. Two suggestions for the challenge Fan & Gibson ApJ 609, 1123, 2004 Birn et al ApJ 645, 732, 2006

9. 10:09:30 AM CHALLENGE 1 Modified from Fan & Gibson, ApJ 609, 1123, 2004

10. We start from the flux rope already emerged, avoiding difficulties with emergence Not in equilibrium Expansion against the overarlying arcade Specific choice of arcade and of rope Approach from Fan&Gibson, ApJ 609, 1123, 2004

11. is the distance from the rope (poloidal radius, if ropes is a torus) Model: equations

12. 10:09:30 AM Typical evolution (FLIP3D-MHD)

13. 10:09:30 AM CHALLENGE 2 Modified from Birn et al, ApJ 645, 732, 2006

14. Twisted flux ropes embedded in a helmet streamer type configuration Connected to the photosphere and anchored to the corona by an overlying arcade Approximate equilibrium Specific choice of the degree of twist and amount of plasma pressure Approach from Birn et al, ApJ 645, 732, 2006

15. Model: equations

16. f = 0.2 nearly force-free flux rope with a strong shear field B ε = 1 the initial states are not exactly force-balanced. The maximum forces in the vertical direction were found to be approximately 0.1 (normalized by characteristic values of current density and magnetic field) Model: features

17. Typical evolution (PLUTO)

18. 2 oral sessions 1 poster session Session at AGU Meeting in San Francisco

19. 10:09:30 AM http://exascience.com/ Several positions available INTEL ExaScience Lab in Leuven June 8, 2010 New Lab to Develop Solar Flare Prediction as Driver for Intel’s Future Exascale Supercomputers (Intel, imec and Five Flemish Universities)

20. Task 4: Space weather model validation and forcasting (Hvar, ROB, KFKI, UOulu, KUL, DTU) Based on the results of Tasks 1-3 we will improve existing capability and develop new methods for space weather forcasting, including: Prediction of arrival time of interplanetary CMEs at the Earth (Hvar) Prediction of geomagnetic disturbances associated with high-speed streams from coronal holes (Hvar) Validation of the Solar Particle Engineering Code (SOLPENCO) for extreme events (KFKI) Model validation and prediction of near-Earth solar wind disturbances associated with ICMEs and high speed solar wind streams (KUL, Hvar) and their geo-effectiveness (DTU, UOulu, KFKI, ROB) Short-term prediction of the magnetic storms and the time development of the improved Dst (UOulu, ROB) Long-term forcasting of coronal hole and solar activity centre occurrence (UOulu) Prediction of scintillations (IEEA) Deliverable 4.5 (next year)

21. New FP7 project on space weather modelling: SWIFF