REPORT National Senior Certificate Examination Results Towards a Sector Plan for Basic Education Presentation by Nkosinathi Sishi –Chief Director: National.

REPORT National Senior Certificate Examination Results Towards a Sector Plan for Basic Education Presentation by Nkosinathi Sishi –Chief Director: National Examinations and Assessment, to the National Council of Provinces (NCOP), Select Committee on Education and Recreation, Parliament, Republic of South Africa Towards a Sector Plan for Basic Education

123456789101112 51.8% 632.3%1.3% 750.7%27.9%1.9%0.1% 810.7%46.1%22.1%2.1%0.3% 92.6%16.1%41.7%21.5%2.2% 101.1%5.2%21.2%39.1%16.5%1.5% 110.2%1.9%7.2%19.0%36.5%13.0%1.0% 120.3%0.9%3.4%10.3%25.1%42.1%10.2%0.9% 130.1%0.4%1.3%4.6%11.7%23.6%39.5%14.0%1.8%0.3% 140.3%0.1%0.6%2.6%4.0%9.8%23.5%35.8%14.8%1.8% 15 0.1%0.5%0.8%3.1%6.1%14.5%24.4%32.4%14.1%2.1%0.2% 16 0.6%2.5%5.9%12.9%24.6%34.2%13.8%1.8% 17 0.9%2.8%6.9%12.3%21.6%32.1%17.2% 18 0.4%1.0%2.4%7.5%11.5%20.6%32.3% 19 0.7%1.8%3.5%7.7%10.7% 20 0.4%1.8%6.1%10.8%15.4% 21 0.2%0.6% 1.7%5.1%9.7% 22 0.4%0.6%3.4%6.0% 23 0.2%0.4%4.1% 24 0.2%0.1%0.9%1.6% 25 0.2% 0.6% 26 0.1%0.3% 2 yrs + 5% of Grade 1 learners are 2 or more years above age-grade norms 26% of Grade 9’s 2 or more years above age-grade norms 38% of Grade 12’s 2 or more years above GRADE Age of learners

Standardisation of Results Thursday, February 04, 2016 3 1. 57 subjects were presented to Umalusi for standardisation 2. 41 Subjects were accepted as raw scores 3. 6 subjects were adjusted downwards 4. 10 subjects were adjusted upwards 5. In all cases presented no adjustments exceeded the 10% allowed either upwards or downwards 6. In the case of Mathematics: In 2008 298 821 took Mathematics. 136 503 passed and of these 63 038 passed at 50% desired for entry into most science and engineering HE fields. There was an outcry that P1 and p2 were too easy. Umalusi indicated that discrimination at the upper levels should be greater. In 2009 national examiners moved in that direction while strategically within the subject assessment guidelines laid down by the Department of Basic Education. 7. In 2009 296 165 wrote Mathematics, 133 789 passed, 85 491 passed on 40% and above and 52 866 passed on 50 % and above.

Magnitude and Size National Examination System: 1 229 937 Thursday, February 04, 2016 4 Schools: 1. Enrolments: Increased-biggest in history 2. National: 620 192 (includes 39 255 repeater candidates) 3. EC-15.6 % increase 4. GP-4.3% increase 5. LP-10.7 % increase 6. WC-6.3% increase Colleges 1. National: 520 235 2. 122 921 NC (V) 3. 213 900 Engineering 4. 183 414 General Studies ABET National: 89 510

Magnitude and Size Thursday, February 04, 2016 5 1. Examination Centres: 7 2 54 NSC 2. Marking Centres: 114 3. Markers: 35 000 4. Chief markers: 828 5. National examiners: 92 6. External moderators: 92 7. Question papers: 197 (130 National Question papers and 67 foreign languages) 8. QP adapted for Braille: 57 9. 48 QP adapted for deaf learners 10. All QP, excluding English and African languages, prepared in English and Afrikaans 11. Subjects Entries: 4 014 732 12. Moderation of SBA: A minimum of 10% portfolios moderated per subject per school

Thursday, February 04, 2016 6

2008 2009 ProvinceTotal wroteTotal AchievedTotal wroteTotal Achieved EC60294304966812934731 FS29963215032980820680 GP92723708229865970871 KZN1367437874713217680733 LP84614459588335040776 MP42153218155397825854 NW33157225543066520700 NC99487230103776356 WC43966344794493134017 National533561333604552073334718 Numbers Wrote/Passed Per Province

Thursday, February 04, 201612

Some Gains Thursday, February 04, 2016 23 1. 18 512 more candidates wrote the 2009 NSC examination. 2. 39 255 Candidates offered a second opportunity. 3. The quality of performances is starting to show - 40% pass and above. 4. Increased numbers qualifying for HE bachelor entries 5. 2 423 More candidates allowed admission to Bachelor studies. 6. 32% of candidates passing in 2009 obtained HE Bachelor qualification 7. 6 777 More candidates allowed admission to diploma studies. 8. Gap between Female & Male is closing (178 925 – Female: 155 791 Male) 9. Bachelor passes higher than historical trends e.g. 61 147 female and 48 550 male qualified for bachelor studies ) 10. Two rural provinces with greater share of poverty showing an upward trend in performance (EC & KZN)

External Quality Assurance Thursday, February 04, 2016 24 1. Umalusi approved the release of the 2009 NSC results for 8 provinces, excluding Mpumalanga 2.Mpumalanga results released on 6 January 2010. After further investigation into alleged leakage of national question papers prior to the start of the examinations

SUBJECT RESULTS Thursday, February 04, 2016 25

Supplementary Examinations  EC 17 879  FS 6 058  GP 19 179  KZN 28 849  LP 21 920  MP 13 045  NW 5 972  NC 2 822  WC 7 789  Mathematics-52 893  Physical Science-48 739  M Lit- 16 505  National: 123 508 Subject Enrolments Thursday, February 04, 2016 59

What are the causes of the problems? 1. High level of consensus that we face huge challenges in basic education that require urgent remediation 2. Need accurate diagnosis of problems and causes of failure if we are to design effective solutions 3. Failing in primary objective: most schools do not have conditions required for effective attainment of learning outcomes

What are the causes of the problems? (continued) 1. Key factors contributing to system failure: Socio-cultural environment within and outside schools; enabling policy context coupled with capable bureaucracy to support schools effectively; school management and governance; teacher capability and commitment; parental involvement; adequacy of fixed infrastructure; and adequacy of teaching and learning inputs

Access (Physical, epistemological, and socio-cultural) BASIC ACCESS Attendance: enrolment and attendance at school Enrolment and progression at appropriate age Consistent attendance (conversely: absenteeism) Contractual access: school adherence to regulations which enable access for children ENABLING ACCESS Access to physical and human resources Freedom from exposure to a range of harmful behaviour (bullying, sexual abuse etc)

Attendance by age: an overview Age Cohort% OUT of school Estimated number of children not in school 7 to 15 years 1.2% 121 373 16 to 18 years 9.8% 317 204 7 to 13 years 1% 75 528 14 to 18 years 6.8% 363 049 7 to 18 years 3.4%438 577 7 to 15: General Household Survey:98% Community Survey: 95.4% 16 to 18: General Household Survey: 82% Community Survey: 77.1% 7 to 15: General Household Survey:98% Community Survey: 95.4% 16 to 18: General Household Survey: 82% Community Survey: 77.1%

Attendance: an overview  Near universal access to school for children aged 7 to 15  High take up of Basic Education Phase  Fairly high enrolment of 16 to 18 age group but….  10% out of school: not leaving to pursue “positive” / productive opportunities  Take up of the FET Phase lower than Basic Education Phase. Age BandGross Enrolment Rate Basic Education Phase (Grades 1 to 9)110.5% FET Phase (Grades 10 to 12)94.9% (Gr. 12=82.7%) Age BandNet Enrolment Rate Basic Education Phase (Grades 1 to 9)95.3% FET Phase (Grades 10 to 12)60.0%

Profile of out-of-school children aged 7 – 15  Very high participation of this age group in education  Lower for children living on farms (5.2% out)  Disabled children more vulnerable  If out of school:  Localised, household or child specific  Context: household poverty  Marginalised children in marginalised households (Fleisch et al) Only 9.8% of out-of-school children had a sibling out of school Negative relationship between composite index of Socio-Economic Status and being in or out of school.

Out-of-school youth aged 16 to 18  Vulnerability context  Disability  Relationship to the household head  Race (….socio-political history designated by race)  Location / settlement type  Poverty and socio-economic status indicators  Reasons youth leave school?  Specific socio-economic histories  Household poverty and cost of education  Teenage pregnancy  Disengagement from / lack of interest in schooling Bunking school, “We were late and they locked us out!” (Thembelihle)

Attendance by race (ages 16 to 18) 29% of coloured boys (aged 16 to 18) out of school, versus 18% of coloured girls FOCUSED study needed on causes of high drop out for coloured youth

Attendance: LOCATION and race (ages 16 to 18)  Coloured and black children on farms more vulnerable  Coloured youth particularly vulnerable: 48% of coloured youth aged 16 to 18 on farms out of school Sub-place Type Percentage of 16 to 18 year olds OUT of school Farm30.60% (51 901) Informal14.00% (31 623) Formal9.10% (138 089) Communal7.20% (95 591) Access to low-wage labour? Farms schools not providing tuition up to Grade 12? Historical labour market access? Experiences re providing access to secondary schools in farming areas? Access to low-wage labour? Farms schools not providing tuition up to Grade 12? Historical labour market access? Experiences re providing access to secondary schools in farming areas?

Household poverty provides an overarching context for school drop out  Multi-dimensional impact of poverty on access  Relationship between socio-economic status and being in / out of school  Responses from caregivers and out-of-school youth  Poverty and cost of education most common reason for drop out (50% of cases)  BUT process is complex….

Focus on poverty in the broader sense School fees About other access costs (uniforms etc) About daily burden of poverty About relative poverty and social exclusion: –Educators / school –Peers 1 / 3 of learners who struggled to pay fees had report cards withheld POLICY needs to be underpinned by a multi- dimensional understanding of poverty, including relative poverty of child FOCUS on access costs FOCUS on reducing incentives for schools to economically and socially exclude poorer learners POLICY needs to be underpinned by a multi- dimensional understanding of poverty, including relative poverty of child FOCUS on access costs FOCUS on reducing incentives for schools to economically and socially exclude poorer learners

Youth disengaged from their education In addition…. in-school factors related to school attachment: Lack of stimulation at school? Academic and non-academic Breakdown of relationship between educator and learner Poor learning outcomes (TIMMS etc) and high repetition rates children alienated from education and disincentivised to remain until Matric? Quality and retention inextricably interlinked RESPONSE? providing academic and non- academic stimulation, feeling a sense of inclusion in school (esp. for older children?), empowered educators and principals…. Alternatives for youth struggling academically? RESPONSE? providing academic and non- academic stimulation, feeling a sense of inclusion in school (esp. for older children?), empowered educators and principals…. Alternatives for youth struggling academically?

Repetition 35% of children in school at the time of the survey had repeated 9% of youth in the FET phase had repeated 3 times or more School PhaseNever repeatedRepeated once Repeated twice Repeated 3 times or more TOTAL REPEATED Foundation Phase (Grades 1 to 3) 78.6% 3 297 934 17.3% 724 864 3.6% 150 407 0.5% 19 073 21.3% 894 344 Intermediate Phase (Grades 4 to 6) 68.5% 2 374 098 21.3% 739 601 7.2% 251 044 2.9% 100 638 31.4% 1 091 283 Senior Phase (Grades 7 to 9) 60.2% 1 830 365 24.4% 741 567 9.8% 297 276 5.6% 170 847 39.8% 1 209 690 FET Phase (Grades 10 to 12) 48.5% 1 459 508 27.8% 837 388 14.5% 435 914 9.2% 272 648 51.5% 1 545 950

Profile of repeaters Repetition higher in traditional areas Boys more than girls (across race, province and settlement) Black children 6 times more likely to repeat than white children –Race: veil through which to view… –Differential / unequal access to quality education –Different / inequality i.t.o living conditions and socio-economic status –Home language –Other…. 84% of white children go to Quintile 5 or private schools 11% of black children go to Quintile 5 or private schools 84% of white children go to Quintile 5 or private schools 11% of black children go to Quintile 5 or private schools

Repetition and home language  Children who include English as a home language are at a distinct advantage Home languageNever repeatedRepeated onceRepeated more than once English88.4% (712 548)9.2% (74 059)2.4% (19 562) Afrikaans75.3% (1 022 932)18.1% (245 994)6.5% (88 953) IsiNdebele61.4% (181 587)19.2% (56 771)19.3% (57 242) IsiXhosa63.2% (1 622 097)24.6% (629 966)12.3% (313 019) IsiZulu66.0% (2469577)22.4% (839 837)11.6% (434 343) Sepedi59.1% (1179873)22.5% (448 747)18.5% (367 988) Sesotho63.2% (801 337)25.2% (319 518)11.6% (147 047) Setswana66.2% (845 131)23.2% (296 079)10.7% (136 152) Siswati60.0% (176 341)23.2% (68 303)16.8% (49 407) Tshivenda52.5% (128 589)22.9% (56 110)24.6% (58 057) For black children who include English as a home language: 80% have never repeated MIDDLE CLASS CHILDREN AT AN ADVANTAGE

Access to infrastructure and resources in school

Access to human resources in school While on aggregate educator: learner ratios are approx 1:32 in SA (DoE data), large differences in class sizes… 82% of learners aged 16 to 18 in Quintile 5 schools said teachers always taught classes when they were supposed to, contrasted with 49% in Quintile 1 schools (youth survey) "Grade 1 has 94 learners, and there is only one teacher for all those learners.“ (Phagameng educator, Limpopo)

Youth perceptions of the biggest problems facing youth at school

Time taken to get to school for those who walk to school and are 10 yrs or younger Time taken to travel to school FarmsFormalInformalTraditional Up to 10 mins23.8%54.3%27.5%30.2% 11 to 30 mins20.7%40.1%63.0%47.4% 31 to 1 hour45.3%4.8%8.5%19.5% More than an hour10.2%.8%1.0%3% TOTAL100%

80 Learner Retention in the South African Education System (May 2008) 1. Drop out rate below grade 9 is statistically insignificant 2. Drop out rate increases sharply in Grades 10-12 (Report disputes SAHRC and Mail and Guardian version) 3. No evidence of anomalies between Grades 1 and 2 (High repetition of Grade 1 cited) 4. Retention is improving, so are the levels of education attainment 5. Younger age groups have a better chance of progressing to secondary school than older age groups 6. South Africa compares favorably to other developing countries on progression rates, enrolment rates and levels of educational attainment 7. Survival rate estimates indicates improving trends in general education: This means younger age groups have a better chance of ultimately completing compulsory education than older age groups

Learner Retention in the South African Education System - May 2008 GET GroupBirth RatesAge in 2007% ultimately completing Grade 9 1.1970-7433-3771.6 2.1975-7928-3278.8 3.1980-8423-2781.1 4.1985-8918-2286.2 5.1990-9413-17Too soon to tell

Leaner Retention in the South African Education System (May 2008) FET GroupBirth datesAge in 2007LevelPercentage with Grade 9 reaching level Grade 1089.0 1. 1970-7433-37Grade 1175.0 Grade 1259.7 Grade 1089.5 2. 1975-7928-32Grade 1175.6 Grade 1257.5 Grade 1089.2 3. 1980-8423-27Grade 1174.9 Grade 1256.7 4. 1984-8918-22 Too early to tell

Key outputs and targets for outcome: “Quality Basic Education” 2010-2014

Focussing on outcomes

Activities that will improve the quality of schooling  Teachers (continued)

Activities that will improve the quality of schooling

KEY INTERVENTIONS AND ACTIVITIES DESIGNED TO ACHIEVE THE OUTPUTS AND TARGETS IDENTIFIED

Ensure credible outcomes-focussed planning and accountability system 1. Necessary condition for effective turnaround 2. Critical to establish comprehensive and contextually- relevant accountability system 3. Standardised and credible learner performance assessments in Grades 3, 6 & 9. Ensure parents and other stakeholders use this for school improvement and accountability

A basic education sector plan/ACTION PLAN 1. Key innovation for 2010: Basic Education Sector Plan. 2. Will contain clear outputs, targets and activities 3. Will form basis for sector accountability as well as all levels of system down to school level 4. Will serve to purposefully marshal stakeholder involvement in practical implementation

Ensure minimum threshold of school functionality 1. Single most important factor if one excludes socio- economic factors from equation 2. Establish – in collaboration with provincial education departments – national education management development academy 3. Establish adequate capability in districts to effectively support schools – marshal private sector and NGO support

Ensure all teacher have required capability, commitment and practice 1. Some teachers have problems with content knowledge 2. And some in respect of commitment and practice 3. This despite significant investment in teacher development 4. Strategy 2 dimensions: 1. Labour peace and stability 2. Dedicated teacher development Institute

Ensure effective implementation of the curriculum 1. 2009 review led to important revisions: Streamline learning areas, teacher administrative burden, development and supply of textbooks and other learning and teaching support materials 2. Focus on numeracy and literacy in early grades plus maths, science and languages in senior grades

Ensure effective implementation of the curriculum (continued) 1. Supply workbooks and other resources that compensate for challenges in teacher capability and school/system functionality 2. Improved capability at district level to support curriculum implementation 3. e-Learning strategy

Ensure bureaucracies have capability to support school improvement and accountability 1. Serious weaknesses in this area, especially in provincial and district structures that serve areas catering for high concentrations of poor learners 2. All education departments need to reconfigure themselves to be more capable of direct support, ensuring accountability and undertaking required interventions 3. This is a key priority for the basic education sector going forward

Improve learner retention 1. Important issue that has attracted much interest 2. Gross enrolment is about 88% but only 50% of youths reach Grade 12 and about a third of youths obtain a NSC 3. We compare favourably to other countries (Brazil, Botswana, Thailand) but clearly situation not ideal 4. Two-fold strategy: 1. Quality and pass rate throughout schooling system 2. More post-school alternative pathways

Achieve universal and quality Grade R and ECD 1. Aim of universal Grade R in 2014 stands. 2. Serious concerns around the quality of Gr R in many schools – poorly paid and under-qualified teachers in some schools, excessive number of learners per class in others. One intervention currently under way is increase in number of teachers with at least level 4 (Gr 12) training. Further quality improvement strategies will have to be developed 3. Increase coverage of children in subsidised ECD sites and improve practitioner training

Ensure adequate resourcing of schools 1. Had huge investment, but too many learners continue to experience conditions that are unacceptable. Two main reasons for this: 1. Below adequate funding and resource inputs 2. Poor capacity to convert financial resources to required inputs, effective utilisation and maintenance thereof 2. Research shows No Fee policy working well 3. Will develop a comprehensive infrastructure development action plan during 2010 to deal with pressing shortcomings

Conclusion  Contents of presentation has drawn from discussion in HD Cluster, Council of Education Ministers, HEDCOM, IPEAC, 2010 Cabinet Lekgotla and with stakeholders

REPORT National Senior Certificate Examination Results Towards a Sector Plan for Basic Education Presentation by Nkosinathi Sishi –Chief Director: National.

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REPORT National Senior Certificate Examination Results Towards a Sector Plan for Basic Education Presentation by Nkosinathi Sishi –Chief Director: National.

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