1. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Global and Regional Climate Change: What on Earth are We Doing?! Eugene S. Takle Agronomy Department Geological and Atmospheric Science Department Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Ames Morning Rotary Club, 22 September 2004

2. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Outline  Evidence for global climate change  Future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations  Simulations of global climate and future climate change  Implications for the Midwest  What can I do?

3. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

4. 2004

5. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2004 2040

6. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Stabilization at 550 ppm

7. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100

9. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Associated Climate Changes  Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr  Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere  Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%  Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions  Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere  Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents  Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges  Snow cover decreased by 10%  Earlier flowering dates  Coral reef bleaching Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

10. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.

11. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

12. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

13. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

14. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

15. Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

16. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

17. 40% Probability 5% Probability Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

18. Climate Change Projected for 2100 Rapid Economic Growth Slower Economic Growth

19. IPCC Summary for Policy Makers  An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system  Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate

20. IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d  There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities  Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries

21. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Surprises  Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)  Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

24. For the Midwest  Warming will be greater for winter than summer  Warming will be greater at night than during the day  A 3 o F rise in summer daytime temperature triples the probability of a heat wave  Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer now than in 1950)  More precipitation  Likely more soil moisture in summer  More rain will come in intense rainfall events  Higher stream flow, more flooding

27. Sub-Basins of the Upper Mississippi River Basin 119 sub-basins Outflow measured at Grafton, IL Simulations for a scenario climate for 2040s shows 20% increase in precip- itation and 50% increase in stream flow

28. “Warming Hole”  T max (JJA) ˚C

29. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Global warming is at least as important an issue as gay marriage or the rising cost of Social Security. And if it is not seriously debated in the general election, it will measure the irresponsibility of the entire political class. This is an issue that cannot, and must not, be ignored any longer.

30. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Global warming is at least as important an issue as gay marriage or the rising cost of Social Security. And if it is not seriously debated in the general election, it will measure the irresponsibility of the entire political class. This is an issue that cannot, and must not, be ignored any longer. Walter Cronkite 12 March 2004 http://www.philly.com/mld/dailytimes/news/opinion/8159334.htm

31. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Can I Do?  Conserve energy  Adopt a simpler lifestyle: –“Elegant simplicity” –“Sophisticated modesty” –“Affluence lite” Sustainable Development: To meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs Brundtland Commission (World Commission on Environment and Development)

32. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Summary  Climate change is real and should be considered something other than “tomorrow’s problem”  We are committed to a warming over the next 40 years regardless of what policy path we choose  Policy decisions today will affect global warming and associated environmental changes in the latter half of the 21st century and beyond  Consider adopting a simpler lifestyle

33. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS For More Information  See my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse  Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu