1. Family/Case Progression Analysis Using the Looking Glass Forecasting Tool Presented by: Kevin Hamler-Dupras Self-Sufficiency Research Analyst DHS Office of Business Intelligence State of Oregon Research Academy September 17, 2014

2. Introduction The Department of Human Services (DHS) serves thousands of Oregonians each year through assistance programs aimed at stabilizing and strengthening families, helping families and individuals become self-sufficient, reducing barriers to employment and improving the health and welfare of children. The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program provides cash assistance to low-income families with children while they strive to become self-sufficient. The program's goal is to reduce the number of families living in poverty, through employment and community resources.

3. Overview The path to self-sufficiency is not always direct, and may require movement through various stages, from stabilizing a family crisis, to overcoming barriers to employment, to activities related to job search and work. DHS has developed a system for identifying these stages. Using the Looking Glass Analytics (LGAN) tool, one can look at the movement of cases among the different stages using the transition component, and the length of time spent at each stage through the survival analysis component.

4. Family/Case Progression Stages 0 Case closure due to disqualification/noncooperation 1 No reported family stability or employment activity 2 Family stability Tier 1 – stabilize family situation 3 Family stability Tier 2 – long-term (education, therapy, etc.) <10 hrs. activity 4 Family stability Tier 2 – long-term (education, therapy, etc.) ≥10 hrs. activity 5 Employment focus Tier 1 – unpaid volunteer <10 hrs. activity 6 Employment focus Tier 1 – unpaid volunteer ≥10 hrs. activity 7 Employment focus Tier 2 – on-the-job training or JOBS Plus 8 Employment focus Tier 3 – job search constitutes majority of hours 9 Employment focus Tier 4 – unsubsidized placement (earned income>0) 10 Closure with placement or transition to ERDC or Medical Only NC Neutral Close - TANF Closure not scored 0 or 10

5. LGAN Analytical Tools Survival Analysis The LGAN tool estimates how long cases stay within a particular “program” (i.e., stage or status). Transition Rates The LGAN tool also estimates what percentage of cases leaving a particular stage or status transition to another stage or status. TANF Leavers The Ex-TANF status was added to the various stages in order to provide a means of measuring how long TANF Leavers remain off of TANF and what stage they enter if and when they return.

6. Translating Stage/Status to Programs ProgramProgression Stage/Status 11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99 10 110 12Neutral Close 13Ex-TANF

7. Survival Analysis Stages 1, 2 & 3

8. Survival Analysis Stages 4, 5 & 6

9. Survival Analysis Stages 7, 8 & 9 and Ex-TANF

10. Transition Matrix

11. Impact of Policy Participation Requirements Federal regulations require individuals receiving TANF to participate in certain activities designed to move them toward self-sufficiency. There are certain exemptions, such as a single parent with a child under six months. Those who are not exempt are considered “mandatory.” For family/case progression, if any individual included on a TANF case is considered mandatory, then the case is classified as mandatory. Since participation in activities is a key determinant of family/case progression, whether a case is mandatory or not is an important factor.

12. Impact of Policy Length of Service The length of time a family stays at a particular stage may be driven by policy, rules or regulations. Example: JOBS Plus is a subsidized work program that is restricted to a maximum of 26 weeks for an individual. Since participation in JOBS Plus falls within Stage 7, this time limit can heavily influence the survival curve for Stage 7.