1. הדמיית אקלים בתקופות עבר וחיזוי אקלימי של תרחישים עתידיים פינחס אלפרט ביה"ס פורטר לסביבה והחוג לגיאופיסיקה, אוניברסיטת תל אביב בשיתוף עם: ג'ין פנגג'ון, שמעון קריצ'ק, רנה סמואלס, יצחק כרמונה, מעין הראל

2. 3 main topics  Importance of scale (50 vs. 25 km)  Multiple Climatic simulations (using different GHG scenarios, driving GCM’s, ensemble members)  Ensemble Outcomes/Simulations

3. Regional Climate Modeling RegCM3 - International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste  Dynamics: MM5 Hydrostatic (Grell et al 1994) Non-hydrostatic (Bi; in progress)  Radiation: CCM3 (Kiehl 1996)  Large-Scale Clouds & Precipitaion: SUBEX (Pal et al 2000)  Cumulus convection: Grell (1993) + FC80 Closure Anthes-Kuo (1977) Emanuel (1991) Betts-Miller (1993)  Boundary Layer: Holtslag (1990)  Tracers/Aerosols/Mineral Dust: Qian et al (2001); Solmon et al. 2006 Zakey et al (2006)  Land Surface: BATS (Dickinson et al 1991), SUB-BATS (Giorgi et al 2003) CLM (Dai et al 2003, In progress) IBIS (Foley; In progress)  Ocean Fluxes Zeng et al (1998) BATS (Dickinson et al 1991)

4. Too intense rise in amount of conv. prec[50km/14l)0 T2m[50L/14L] overestimated T2m [50km/14L underestimated – too much clouds 50km/14L minus 25km/18L Importance of Scale

5. Multiple Model Simulations RCM Model Configuration Ensemble Member SRESGCM 11A1BECHAM 13A1BECHAM 11B1ECHAM 21B1ECHAM 1A1BHADLEY

6. Temperature Change [K] in the summer (JJA) between future (2060-2031) to past (1961-1990) ECHAM5 B11 ECHAM5 A1B3 8K ECHAM5 A1B1 HADLEY A1B 11K 4.8K 3.5K 2.5K 6K

7. Ensembles  Maps  Time-series; 1960-2060  Probabilities

8. Summer Temperature

9. Winter Precipitation

10. Precipitation running means for ±5 years in the winter (DJB) Center Israel RegCM grid point (32N,35E). Every point is an averge of 11years for instance: the value for 2024 is an average for 2019-2029.

11. ECHAM5 RegCM 25km : Winter precipitation [mm/season] differences future (2001-2030)- past (1961-1990)

12. Precipitation Change [mm/season] in the winter (DJF) between future (2060-2031) to past (1961-1990) ECHAM5 B11 ECHAM5 A1B3 ECHAEM5 A1B1 HADLEY A1B

13. Change Future from Past: Probability Distribution

14. Data Sets  4 climate models (18-25 km horizontal resolution)  Japanese Met Office 20km  ECHAM-RegCM  ECHAM-MM5 Run 1  HADLEY-MM5 Run 1  Future Scenario Used: SRES A1B scenario  Observed Data is taken from 13 Stations around the country.

15. Observed Rainfall

16. Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Average Annual Amounts p mm/yr shows observed data (red) and calculated past near future (2015-2035 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid). far future (2035-2060 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid).

17. Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Number of Wet Spells p Number of Spells shows observed data (red) and calculated past near future (2015-2035 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid). far future (2035-2060 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid).

18. Conclusions   Tendency to extreme in daily and seasonal rainfall- Desertification?   Tendency to extreme temperatures   Japanese run confirms how crucial are high-resolution climate runs   First High Resolution Model Ensemble over the E. Mediterranean confirms the tendency to extreme along with less total rainfall

19. תודה רבה !