1. Future Role of NCEP in Advancing Environmental Prediction and Decision Support 2010 MIC-HIC Conference Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director National Centers for Environmental Prediction

2. Outline Define NCEP NWS Strategic Goals: addressing the case for change Strategic Junctures for Vision 2020 –Model Systems –Service Centers Decision Support Services 2

4. NWS Strategic Goals Addressing the Case for Change Improve weather decision services for events that threaten safety, health, the environment, economic productivity, or homeland security Deliver a broader suite of improved water services to support management of the Nation’s water supply Enhance climate services to help communities, businesses, and governments understand and adapt to climate ‐ related risks Improve sector ‐ relevant information in support of economic productivity Enable integrated environmental services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems NCEP must play a major role in enabling NWS to meet these goals 4

5. IDSS 4D Cube Impact-based Forecasts Evolving Operations to Implement Impact-based Decision Support Services Vision 2020 Weather, Climate and Water Services Emerging Prediction for Earth Systems NCEP must play a major role in supporting the fundamental components of IDSS

6. NCEP is now at a Strategic Juncture for Vision 2020 6 Increasing community efforts to extend predictive capabilities beyond traditional atmosphere to include fully coupled earth system model –Climate –Water and air quality –Ecosystems –Renewable energy Ongoing rapid improvement in forecast skill –Using ensembles for probabilistic forecasts –Extending skillful forecasts of extreme events to 7 days and sometimes beyond –Introducing higher resolution forecasts NCEP wants to, and is poised to, better support the WFO/RFC/CWSU field structure –Growing embrace of collaborative interactions Technology is poised to allow greater access to NCEP products and services –NOMADS “Pull” technology –Forecaster-produced digital products Research community working with operations to accelerate R2O

7. Land Ocean For All Applications Atmosphere Cryosphere Strategic Juncture for Vision 2020 Fully Coupled Earth System Model 7

8. WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF 8 Air Quality WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model, FNMOC Satellites 99.9% Regional NAM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate CFS 1.7B Obs/Day Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite MOM3 NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation (GSI) Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 8 WRF NMM

9. Fully Coupled Earth System Model Climate Forecast System Combines GFS with GFDL Ocean (MOM3) and community land surface (Noah) models Successfully predicts ENSO; major contributor to seasonal forecast Major upgrade in FY11: Include polar ice regions; higher resolution for all earth system components, ………) Current CFS Seasonal SST Anomaly Forecast 4-month Lead Target OND 2009

10. Fully Coupled Earth System Model for Ecosystem Prediction 10 Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007 Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 3-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay Generated since 2002 Important for water management and recreational purposes * Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay Current Demonstration Ready for Transition*

11. Strategic Juncture for Vision 2020 Using Ensemble Forecasts for Probabilistic Forecasts Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Models Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -WRF NCEP Model Perspective MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation 11

12. Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS 2m Temperature 12

13. Strategic Juncture for Vision 2020 Introducing Higher Resolution Forecasts NAM NEMS based NMMNEMS based NMM B grid replaces E grid Parent remains at 12 km Multiple Nests Run to ~48hr –~4 km CONUS nest –~6 km Alaska nest –~3 km HI & PR nests –~ –~1.5-2km DHS/FireWeather/IMET possible Rapid Refresh WRF-based ARW Use of GSI analysisUse of GSI analysis Expanded 13 km Domain to include Alaska Experimental 3 km HRRR RUC-13 CONUS domain WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010 Original CONUS domain Experimental 3 km HRRR NCEP Mesoscale Modeling for CONUS: Planned Q2FY11 13

14. Strategic Juncture for Vision 2020 Growing Embrace of Collaborative Interactions: Examples of Collaborative Forecasts Involving National Centers

15. Collaborative Convective Forecast Product  CCFP provides an opportunity for all system stakeholders to participate in the convective forecast.  CCFP is created through a collaborative team of weather professionals:  NWS meteorologists at CWSUs, WFOs  MSC Meteorological Service of Canada  Airline Met offices and private weather providers  NWS meteorologists at the Aviation Weather Center The CCFP is the only weather forecast used in the Operations Planning Telecon.

16. Convective Watch Collaboration Local Offices are a full partner in the watch process SPC leads watch collaboration for issuance –including Outlooks, Mesoscale Discussions, and chat participation WFO’s responsible for evolution of existing watches –SPC provides Mesoscale Discussions and Status Messages 16

17. HPC-Alaska Region Forecast Collaboration (5-Day Forecast Valid April 20, 2010) WFO max temp forecast HPC surface guidance HPC Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion -- guidance HPC max temperature guidance

18. 18 Winter Weather Desk Status – FY10 Winter Precipitation Accumulation for 6 and 24 hour periods…Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 at 2.5 km resolution Preliminary Snow Accumulation and Ice Accumulation issued early for WFO collaboration 6 hourly grids for Snow/Liquid Ratio (SLR), FOs may use HPC grids directly within GFE, inclusion of SLR aids consistency between QPF and snow forecasts Final HPC official forecasts are probabilistic in nature, indicating slight, moderate, or high risk of various thresholds (4, 8, and 12 inches of snow;.25 inch of ice) Low Tracks Forecast is through 72 hours Day 1 Snow accumulation and Low Tracks Forecast are most popular winter weather graphics on web site 3-hour probabilities of freezing rain (from SREF) Impact Graphics (post processed from SREF), e.g., snow on roads

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20. 20 3 days prior 2 days prior 1 day prior

21. 21 HPC Snowfall Probabilities for Feb 6, 2010 3 Days Prior2 Days Prior 1 Day Prior Probability Legend SLGT: At Least 10% Prob MDT: At least 40% Prob HIGH: At least 70% Prob >12” First time 70% forecast for >12” three days in advance

22. Strategic Juncture for Vision 2020 Greater Access to NCEP Products/Services NOMADS – NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System –A digital archive and real time distribution of NOAA’s operational weather models, with a geographically-diverse backup server to ensure operational availability; built on “pull” technology –Implications for MME access –Operationally supported at the WOC since February 2009 –Measured a 33 % reduction in model access volume even with increased number of users Executing models from remote locations –Supporting the workstation WRF Collaborative, real-time, interactions exchanges with all Service Centers 22

23. Breakout Groups Help establish NCEP’s role –Current range of services –New areas involving NWS, NOAA –Extending meaningful prediction in week 2 and beyond Build off success of collaborative forecast process for climate, weather, water applications Build off the impending advances in earth system models –Run in higher resolution; with distributive model capabilities possible –Run within multi-model ensemble –Extended longer period in time (e.g., NAEFS out to 35 days) –More easily accessible through NOMADS approach Challenge to the Breakout Groups: 23