2. Sunny with a Chance Elwynn Taylor Weather Impacts on Agriculture Urban-AgAcademy Ag-101 Geislers, 3 miles East

3. Prairie & Climate The Wealth of the Earth Highest Productivity Known Highest Carbon Sequestration 35% Grass, 35% Legume, 30% other

4. 40% Corn, 30% Soybean

6. Bio-Fuel (Utah, 1944)

7. Something like our 8N Our food acres increased 50%

8. Ballard Springs Pond Millville silt-loam

9. Reduction of farm land Fuel market competes with feed market

10. of citrus’, sandwiches, & climates change In 1968 cooling was a major concern, so was population (Paul Ehrlich). “The greatest threat is our energy hunger, I ordered a lunch delivered, from 1400 miles away.” Dr. Hyrum Johnson

12. Global Energy Demand is Rising Rapidly Because Energy Consumption and Income are Linked

13. Energy Demand Reduction?

18. Energy Farming

19. Bio-Fuel Reduce Atmospheric Carbon? Convert coal to liquid fuel? Economy: Fuel or Food? Alternatives: Hydro, Wind, Solar, Nuclear

21. Production Outlook

22. Grain or Fiber? Improved yield – Maize U. S. yield 1960-2009 x3.0 – Rice World yield 1960-2009 x2.3 – Rice Philippines yield x3.1 – Rice U. S. yield x2.3 I S U

23. 1979 100 BPA 1956 50 BPA 2030 200 BPA I S U

24. The Crop Trend Trends change Trend & Volatility Trend is Technology + Climate Change Volatility is Weather + Climate Cycles

26. Resource Capture

27. Almost 60 in 1894, 121 in 2007

28. 1950-1993 Precipitation

29. Precipitation Change for Iowa

30. 100+ yr Precipitation

31. Increased Stream Flow: Increased # of Flood-prone Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

32. Warm Winters Cold Winters COLD WARM

34. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/weekly-sst.php

36. La Niña Outlook 9Mar 2012 30% Chance La Niña persists into Summer 60% Chance El Niño begins immediately 10% Chance of Neutral ? ? Minimal chance of Neutral SOI 30% Chance of La Niña with US Yield < 148 BPA $6.60 60% Chance of El Niño with US Yield > 168 BPA $5.00 10% Chance of neutral with US Trend+ 164 BPA $5.15 $ from Wisner 2/9/2012 http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf Based on the evolution of recent atmosphere- ocean conditions, I am dropping the odds from 50/50 to less than 30% for continued La Niña conditions into the upcoming summer. In fact, there is a distinct possibility that we could see a switch to El Niño by mid-2012. … (Klaus.Wolter@noaa.gov), (303) 497-6340 Soy 41bpa $11.95, 43.5bpa $10.60, 45.5bpa $10.35 Today DEC corn $5.60 May corn $6.50

37. Madden-Julian Contributing to the weather today wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/22/the-madden-julian-oscillation/

39. mesonet.agron.iastate.edu

40. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120629_rpts.html

41. IL

42. IL (historical)

44. IL (historical)

45. Outlook Warm through Sat, then not as warm Thunder storms possible Then through 24 Mar:

47. Based on current atmosphere-ocean conditions, I believe the odds for this La Niña event to continue right through early summer (June-July 2012) are just about 50%. Beyond that, it is worth noting that four of the ten two-year La Niña events between 1900 and 2009 ended up as a three-year event, so I would put the odds for this to occur in 2012-13 at 40% right now. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/