1. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 1 Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Chapter Six: Public Opinion and Political Socialization

2. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 2 1.Define public opinion, consensus opinion, and divided opinion, and discuss major sources of political socialization, including the family, schools, the media, and political events. 2.Identify the effects of various influences on voting behavior including education, income, religion, race/ethnicity, gender, and geography. 3.Describe the characteristics of a scientific opinion poll, and list some of the problems pollsters face in obtaining accurate results. 4.Consider the effect that public opinion may have on the political process.

3. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 3 Consensus and Divided Opinion Forming Public Opinion: Political Socialization The family Education as a source of political socialization Peers and peer group influence Opinion leaders’ influence

4. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 4 Public opinion can be strongly divided. Why is that so with health care reform legislation? Kevin Dietsch/UPI/Landov

5. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 5 Question: Do you think that Russia’s actions in Ukraine are or are not a violation of international law? Do you think Russia’s President Putin cared whether the annexation of Crimea was a violation of international law? Why or why not? Source: CNN/ORC Poll, Mar. 7-9, 2014

6. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 6 Question: Do you think it is likely or not likely that there will be a new cold war between the United States and Russia in the next few years? Why would the United States be reluctant to become militarily involved in Ukraine? Source: CNN/ORC Poll, Mar. 7-9, 2014

7. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 7 A Maryland voter and her daughter in 2012. Hurricane Sandy disrupted early voting in that state. What kinds of voters tend to turn out even in very bad weather? Alex Wong/Getty Images

8. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 8 The Media and Public Opinion The popularity of the media The impact of the new media Fairness Doctrine Political Events and Public Opinion Historical events The political mood

9. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 9 Pastor Rick Warren, author of The Purpose Driven Life, speaks to a conference on AIDS in Washington, D.C. Is Warren an opinion leader? Michael Kovac/Getty Images for the Elton John AIDS Foundation

10. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 10 Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg marches with his employees in San Francisco’s Gay Pride Parade. How are leaders of the new media different from leaders of the old? Shutterstock/Kobby Dagan

11. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 11 Party Identification and Demographic Influences Educational achievement Economic status Religious denomination Religious commitment and beliefs Race and ethnicity The Hispanic vote The gender gap Geographic region

12. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 12 Some sections of the U.S. have high levels of poverty, such as in Owsley County, Kentucky, where this auto mechanic lives. How does family income influence feelings about government? Mario Tama/Getty Images

13. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 13 Arab American activists promote voter registration in Dearborn, Michigan, a city with a substantial Arab American population. What kinds of issues might sway the “Arab vote”? Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

14. Source: Center for American Women and Politics

15. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 15 Election-Specific Factors Perception of the candidates Issue preferences

16. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 16 Women supporting Barack Obama demonstrate outside of a Mitt Romney campaign event in 2012. What factors might create the “gender gap”? AP Photo/Scott Sonner

17. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 17 The History of Opinion Polls Sampling Techniques The principle of randomness The statistical nature of polling Sampling error

18. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 18 Nate Silver is an unabashed “numbers geek” who correctly predicted most elections in 2012. His Fivethirtyeight blog has moved from the New York Times to ESPN. In what ways do politics resemble sports? AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

19. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 19 The Difficult of Obtaining Accurate Results Weighting the sample House effects How accurate are the results?

20. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 20 Sources: The Gallup Poll Monthly, November 1992; Time, November 21, 1994; The Wall Street Journal, November 6, 1996; and authors’ updates. This chart compares the percentage of the vote received by the winning presidential candidate with Gallup’s final prediction. Is Gallup still the “gold standard” among poll takers? Why or why not?

21. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 21 Sources: FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics blogs. The eleven polls on this chart were conducted immediately before the elections. Two polling firms had ties to a political party. Why might Obama have done better than many pollsters predicted?

22. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 22 Additional Problems with Polls Poll questions Unscientific and fraudulent polls Push polls

23. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 23 President Harry Truman holds up the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune issue that predicted his defeat on the basis of a Gallup poll. Truman, of course, defeated Dewey. The Gallup poll was completed more than a week before the election, so it missed a shift by undecided voters to Truman. Why would a newspaper today be unlikely to make such an inaccurate prediction and put it on newsstands? AP Photo/Byron Rollins

24. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 24 Technology and Opinion Polls The advent of telephone polling Telephone polling problems The cell phone problem Enter internet polling How representative is the Internet? “Nonpolls” on the internet

25. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 25 College Republicans work the polls in Virginia. How might young Republicans view issues differently from older ones? AP Photo/The Free Lance-Star, Robert A. Martin

26. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 26 Political Culture and Public Opinion Political culture and support for our political system Political trust

27. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 27 Question: In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? Satisfaction hit a minor peak of 33 percent on Election Day 2012, the highest number in several years before or since. Why might satisfaction have been greater on that day? Source: Gallup polls, 1979 through 2014.

28. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 28 Question: I am going to read a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one: a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little? Why might the Supreme Court and public schools be at least moderately popular? Source: Gallup polls over time.

29. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 29 Public Opinion about Government Confidence in other institutions The most important problems

30. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 30 Public Opinion and Policymaking Setting limits on government action The public versus the policymakers The limits of polling

31. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 31 A Policy Example: Contraception Insurance The controversy The Supreme Court takes up the issue Public opinion and the controversy

32. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 32 Click picture to view video

33. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 33 1.How important is personal contact in gaining support for a candidate? 2.Do you feel your individual vote counts? Why or why not? 3.Who or what most influences your voting behavior? Do you vote like your family does?