1. 1 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Guangzhou, China, October 2004, PRD Campaign Emissions and transport of aerosol and ozone in South Asia and China: the GAINS-Asia project F. Dentener, R. Van Dingenen (JRC) W. Schoepp, A. Chambers,C. Heyes,Z. Klimont, M. Amann (IIASA) R. Mathur (TERI, India) Kejun Jiang (ERI, China)

2. 2 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Objectives: Develop a tool for policy analysis of cost-benefits of controlling air pollution and GHG emissions State of the art models Reduced form representations of models Updating reference year emission inventories Scenario’s reflecting realistic energy use perspectives and options for mitigations

3. 3 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 TM5 CTM Model set-up TM5 global 3D CTM with regional two-way nesting 6°x4; 3°x2°,1°x1°; 25 vertical layers Aerosol and photo-chemistry ECMWF meteorology; output every hour AEROCOM, PHOTOCOMP, HTAP intercomparisons

4. 4 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Experimental set-up Implementation for GAINS-Asia Policies often implemented at provincial or state level 32 regions for India; Bangadesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka 26 provinces in China

5. 5 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Experimental set-up Perturbation by gridbox Implementation for GAINS-Asia: Initial emissions: GAINS/EDGAR3.2; BC/POM: Bond (2004) Perturbation by -20 % of anthropogenic emissions per region => perturbation per unit emission Input to GAINS cost optimisation 2 separate cases: NO x -BC-POM; and SO 2 -CO-VOC Altogether ca. 120 simulations of 1 year+ spin-up 2 months Parameterisation to derive urban scale PM concentrations Uttar Pradesh: Emission perturbation

6. 6 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Change in deposition of SO4

7. 7 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Change in SOMO35 (O3>35 ppbv) ppb days

8. 8 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Simulated PM10 for 2001

9. 9 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008

10. 10 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 PM10 in ca. 100 cities in China Good slope, lot of scatter

11. 11 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Contribution to PM10 from industrial sources (not POM, BC) Cement Construction Road dust Location Strength removal

12. 12 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 PM10 in ca. 100 cities in China -without industrial dust Something missing, less scatter

13. 13 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 … Without natural dust … Better correlation

14. 14 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Comparison of PM2.5 at Beijing (2001) He et al., Atmos Env. 2001 Industrial dust: Not likely to be so high!

15. 15 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Increase in PM10 in 2030: Worldwide “Business-as-usual” Realistic scenario developed by ERI/TERI

16. 16 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Scenario: national energy use projections Limited air pollution mitigation Increase in PM10 in 2030:

17. 17 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Loss of statistical life expectancy [months] World bank method Above natural background 2000 Life expectancy will decrease by 6-12 months in 2030

18. 18 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Starting point for identifying mitigation options Example of implementation in GAINS-Asia Using province/state SR relationships 50 ug/m3 (EU limit) Scenario 2030

19. 19 Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008 Concluding remarks Source Receptor relationships for provinces and states in India and China with TM5 First order understanding of levels and composition of PM2.5 and PM10 (needs improvement) New measurements coming available will help with evaluation Updated GAINS emission (scenarios) for India/China Scenarios for 2030 combining economic energy projections with not very ambitious mitigation options leads to serious further decline in air quality GAINS tool now operational: will provide policy makers with information and options to improve air quality: “SEE IS BELIEVE”