1. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Committee for Environmental Services, Operations and Research Needs Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research

2. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Agenda July 18, 2007 Welcome and administrative actions Briefings by CESORN –Working Groups (WGs) –Joint Action Groups (JAGs) Lunch on your own (12-1:30p) Agency Presentation of Hydrometeorological Needs Summary of the day (adjourn 4:00p)

3. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Agenda July 19, 2007 Briefings by CESORN –Working Groups (WGs) –Joint Action Groups (JAGs) Briefings & Discussion on Probabilistic/Uncertainty Weather Forecasts –Agency presentations Summary of the meeting (adjourn 12:00p)

4. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Welcome and Administrative Actions Welcome! –Mr. Samuel P. Williamson, Federal Coordinator Introductions Administrative Remarks –Life Support Coffee, Tea, Sodas (6 th floor) –Emergency Exits *

5. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Elevators MEN WOMEN Toilet Kit Copier Fax DFC USN USAF FAA FC Emergency Exit Meeting room

6. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Welcome and Administrative Actions Restrooms * –grab a key at the front desk Phones * –Incoming messages: 301- 427- 2002 –Incoming faxes: 301- 427- 2007 –Dial 9 for commercial, 4 for DSN on DSN line Recording in Progress

7. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Elevators MEN WOMEN Toilet Kit Copier Fax DFC USAF FAA FC Restrooms USN Meeting room

8. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Phones Elevators MEN WOMEN Toilet Kit Copier Fax DFC USN USAF FAA FC Meeting room

9. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Administrative Issues Membership Update –New agency representatives –Membership listing Terms of Reference –Update? –Add tsunami?

10. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 CESORN Terms of Reference –Collecting and consolidating agency needs –Identifying forecast problems and supporting research needs –Planning and executing strategies for addressing deficiencies –Empowering JAGs to work on projects –Elevating to ICMSSR matters as needed –Monitoring and assessing national programs

11. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Update on Hurricane and Winter Storms Operations and Research Interagency Strategic Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead –Dr. Frank Marks Highlights from IHC, National Hurricane Operations Plan, and SFMR WC-130J Upgrade –Mr. Robert Dumont

12. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Break 10-10:15a

13. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Working Issues for the Working Group for Natural Disaster Reduction/Post-Storm Data Acquisition National Post-Storm Data Acquisition Plan Update –Mary M. Cairns (for Robert Mason, USGS) DOD/USAF-Auxilliary DOC/OFCM MOU –Mary M. Cairns

14. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 National Post-Storm Data Acquisition Plan Update Reasons to update: –Enhanced-Fujita scale implemented by NWS –Outdated instructions for CAP, etc. –Inclusion of other areas, e.g., coastal surveys (not well defined) –Update of wind experts (& others?) Action required: –Concurrence to move ahead with NPSDAP update

15. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 DOD/USAF-Auxilliary DOC/OFCM MOU DOC and DOD MOU signed May 4, 2007 Agency use of CAP –All but NWS –NWS in process to resolve issue for use Action required: –OFCM provide agencies with “how to” –NWS complete exemption

16. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Update on the Weather Information for Surface Transportation Activities & Symposium Mr. Frank Estis

17. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Update on the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Research and Development Activities Dr. Mark Weadon

18. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Working Issues for the Satellite Telemetry Interagency Working Group Ms. Bonnie Wyatt –Review of Issues –Update of the GOES DCS Operational Plan Action required: –Concurrence to move ahead with the Plan update

19. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment Validated Needs of the Wildland Fire Weather Community –Dr. Allen Riebau Action required: –Support formation of a Working Group for Wildland Fire Weather (WG/WFW) to monitor progress towards meeting the needs and ensure new needs are appropriately addressed as they arise

20. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Lunch (on your own) 12-1:30p

21. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Crosscutting Assessment of Federal Agency Hydrometeorological Products, Services, and Supporting Research Overview –Mary M. Cairns Agency Presentations –Mr. Glenn Austin, NOAA/NWS –Ms. Marge Davenport, USGS –Mr. Eric Luebehusen, USDA

22. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Break 3-3:15p

23. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Crosscutting Assessment of Federal Agency Hydrometeorological Products, Services, and Supporting Research Discussion Action required: –Support the need for a crosscutting assessment of federal agency hydrometeorological products, services, and supporting research –Establish a Joint Action Group for the National Hydrometeorological Needs Assessment

24. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 CESORN Review of today’s action items –Mary M. Cairns Adjourn

25. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Agenda July 19, 2007 Briefings by CESORN –Working Groups (WGs) –Joint Action Groups (JAGs) Briefings & Discussion on Probabilistic/Uncertainty Weather Forecasts –Agency presentations Summary of the meeting (adjourn 12:00p)

26. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Working Issues for the Joint Action Group for Severe Local Storms Operations Mary M. Cairns (for John Ferree) –Update to the National Severe Local Storms Operations Plan Communications (VTEC) Hail size for severe thunderstorm products (>=1”)? Expansion of SLS to include e.g., fire weather, winter storms?

27. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Working Issues for the Joint Action Group for Severe Local Storms Operations Action Required: –Concurrence to review and update the SLSOP

28. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Future Opportunities for Lightning Data Requirements Mr. James McNitt and Mr. William Fellows Action required: –Support the need for a requirements study for federal agency lightning data requirements –Establishment of a Joint Action Group for this activity

29. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Beginning Discussion on Customer Needs for Probabilistic/Uncertainty Weather Forecasts – Crosscutting Issues Overview –Mary M. Cairns, OFCM Aviation Forecasts for the 4-D Weather Cube –Kevin Johnston, NOAA/NWS

30. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Overview CESORN Terms of Reference (again) –Collecting and consolidating agency needs –Identifying forecast problems and supporting research needs –Planning and executing strategies for addressing deficiencies –Empowering JAGs to work on projects –Elevating to ICMSSR matters as needed –Monitoring and assessing national programs

31. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Overview (cont.) Gained knowledge of issue - crosscutting –AMS –OFCM Agency needs (e.g., Aviation, Fire) –NWS forecaster/SOO Reports –Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information (NRC) –Where the Weather Meets the Road… (NRC) –Conops for the NGATS (JPDO) –Completing the Forecast (NRC) –Wildland Fire Weather Assessment (OFCM/WGA) –Others…..

32. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Overview (cont.) Activities –AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts –JPDO Weather Working Group Probabilistic Forecasts meetings –WAS*IS

33. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Overview (cont.) CESORN food for thought… –Review and compile current agency activities & needs (from existing documentation) –What areas can CESORN identify and work towards? Or assist with? Other presentations to follow...

34. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Break 10-10:15a

35. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Beginning Discussion on Customer Needs for Probabilistic/Uncertainty Weather Forecasts – Crosscutting Issues Challenges in Modeling Probabilistic Forecasts/Uncertainty –Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Services –Fiona Horsfall, NOAA/NWS Customer Needs for Decision Support –Ken Graham, NOAA/NWS

36. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 Beginning Discussion on Customer Needs for Probabilistic/Uncertainty Weather Forecasts – Crosscutting Issues Discussion

37. July 18-19, 2007CESORN Meeting 07-1 CESORN Agency Issues & Open Discussion Wrap-up and Next Steps –Action item review –Next meeting Adjourn