1. The End of Cheap Oil: Social, Economic, and Political Change in the US and the Former Soviet Union Robert K. Kaufmann Boston University February 25, 2011

2. The Cold War: The Ultimate Social Experiment

3. Outline Energy & Economic Activity End of Cheap Oil Quantity: annual production Quality:Energy Return on Investment Economic, Social, and Political Change USA: Working Harder Borrowing from the Future USSR: Collapse

4. Economic Activity & Energy Use: USSR

5. Energy Use and Economic Activity: USA GDP Energy

6. Energy Efficiency: Fuel Mix, Household Energy Use, and Price

7. The Quantity of Oil Supply The Hotelling Model Rank supplies in terms of marginal cost Maximize the present value of production The Hubbert model Mathematical parsimony Finite supply Rise to and fall from a single peak

8. Oil Production: USA

9. Oil Production: USSR

10. Changes in Quality: USSR Oil Production

11. Changes in Quality: USA

12. EROI Imported Oil US

13. Energy Use and Labor Productivity Energy/Woker Hour Real Value Added per Worker Hour

14. US Hourly Wage

15. Family Income (Male Sole Earner)

16. Female Participation Rate

17. Median Family Income

18. US Savings Rate

19. International Investment Position

20. Federal Debt

21. Consumer Debt

22. The Former USSR: Collapse Three uses of oil Increase exports to East European allies Earn hard currency for western imports Increase domestic living standards

23. The Former USSR: Collapse Three uses of oil Increase exports to East European allies Earn hard currency for western imports Increase domestic living standards

24. The Future: Inequality