1. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 The State of the Church in Northern California 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use2 This is a Sample Presentation It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Northern California, and what the complete “State of the Church in Northern California” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Northern California that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/NCA0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/NCA0.htm

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use3 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use4 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “ How Many People Really Attend Church in Northern California Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Northern California?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Northern California will begin to take shape.

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use5 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Northern California has an average church attendance percentage (12.3%) much lower than the national average (18.7%). California’s average is 14.8%.

6. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use6

7. 7 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Northern California.

8. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use8 Northern California Counties 2000 Christian Church Attendance as a Percentage of Population 2000 Beige = Highest Rose = Middle Blue = Lowest 0.0% Alpine 6.7% Calaveras 6.8% Modoc 7.0% Mono 7.1% Marin 7.7% Sonoma 7.9% Lassen 8.2% Trinity 9.3% Mendocino 9.6% Amador 9.7% San Mateo 9.8% Lake 10.0% Plumas 10.0% San Francisco 10.1% Madera 10.2% Yuba 10.4% San Joaquin 10.7% El Dorado 10.8% Shasta 10.8% Yolo 10.9% Butte 11.2% Humboldt 11.3% Tehama 11.4% Kings 11.5% Santa Clara 11.7% Colusa 12.0% Mariposa 12.3% Del Norte 12.5% Merced 12.5% Tulare 12.6% Santa Cruz 12.9% Tuolumne 12.9% Napa 13.0% Alameda 13.0% Contra Costa 13.4% Sutter 13.6% Stanislaus 13.7% Siskiyou 14.1% Solano 14.2% Nevada 14.5% Fresno 14.7% Placer 15.1% Monterey 15.2% Sacramento 15.4% Glenn 16.4% Inyo 16.6% Sierra 21.2% San Benito 0.0% to 10.8% 10.8% to 13.7% 13.7% to 22.2%

9. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use9 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Northern California. The first map shows the population size of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000.

10. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use10 Northern California Counties 2000 Population 1,208 Alpine 3,555 Sierra 9,449 Modoc 12,853 Mono 13,022 Trinity 17,130 Mariposa 17,945 Inyo 18,804 Colusa 20,824 Plumas 26,453 Glenn 27,507 Del Norte 33,828 Lassen 35,100 Amador 40,554 Calaveras 44,301 Siskiyou 53,234 San Benito 54,501 Tuolumne 56,039 Tehama 58,309 Lake 60,219 Yuba 78,930 Sutter 86,265 Mendocino 92,033 Nevada 123,109 Madera 124,279 Napa 126,518 Humboldt 129,461 Kings 156,299 El Dorado 163,256 Shasta 168,660 Yolo 203,171 Butte 210,554 Merced 247,289 Marin 248,399 Placer 255,602 Santa Cruz 368,021 Tulare 394,542 Solano 401,762 Monterey 446,997 Stanislaus 458,614 Sonoma 563,598 San Joaquin 707,161 San Mateo 776,733 San Francisco 799,407 Fresno 948,816 Contra Costa 1,223,499 Sacramento 1,443,741 Alameda 1,682,585 Santa Clara 0 to 100,000 100,000 to 500,000 500,000 to 2,000,000

11. Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County

12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use12 The 2 Next Slides show the ethnicity of all of California in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

13. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use13

14. Complete Presentation has Graph of 2000 Ethnicity

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16. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use16 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Northern California in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals and Catholics have increased in attendance over the last decade, while Mainline churches have decreased. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has declined, the population has grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph reflects a significant decrease in the percentage of the population attending all types of churches.

17. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use17

18. Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category

19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use19 The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Northern California in 1990 and 2000.

20. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use20

21. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use21

22. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use22 The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 9 major denominational groups in Northern California. The Catholic church is smaller in Northern California than in Southern California. The second and third charts show the significant decline of all denominations in Northern California, with the exception of the Three Sisters churches. (The 3 Sisters are 3 similar evangelical denominations originally from Sweden, the Baptist General Conference, the Evangelical Free Church and the Evangelical Covenant Church.)

23. Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

24. Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

25. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use25

26. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use26 The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both the whole state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for the whole state and the nation. This shows how many people live in this state for every Christian church. Among states in 2000, Arkansas is the lowest at 411 people per church, while Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church.

27. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use27

28. Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation

29. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use29 The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Northern California in 2000.

30. Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County

31. Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County

32. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use32 Northern California Counties 2000 Catholic Church Attendance as a Percentage of Population 2000 Beige = Highest Rose = Middle Blue = Lowest 0.0% Alpine 1.3% Lassen 1.8% Calaveras 2.0% Shasta 2.0% Modoc 2.1% Tuolumne 2.4% Trinity 2.6% Butte 2.6% Mono 2.8% Amador 2.9% Madera 3.0% Yuba 3.2% Sutter 3.2% Marin 3.2% Lake 3.2% Sierra 3.3% Sonoma 3.4% Humboldt 3.4% Del Norte 3.4% Mendocino 3.4% Napa 3.6% Nevada 3.7% Tehama 3.7% Siskiyou 3.8% El Dorado 3.9% Plumas 4.2% Placer 4.3% Kings 4.3% Fresno 4.4% San Francisco 4.6% Colusa 4.8% Tulare 4.9% Sacramento 5.0% Stanislaus 5.2% San Joaquin 5.4% Yolo 5.5% San Mateo 5.6% Contra Costa 5.6% Merced 5.6% Alameda 5.7% Solano 5.9% Santa Clara 6.0% Mariposa 6.1% Santa Cruz 6.3% Inyo 6.8% Glenn 9.8% Monterey 17.6% San Benito 0.0% to 3.4% 3.4% to 5.6% 5.6% to 18.6%

33. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use33 The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 17 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 30 counties declined.

34. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

35. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use35 The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Northern California between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 19 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 28 counties declined. For Mainline churches, 8 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 39 counties declined. For Catholics, 27 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 20 counties declined.

36. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

37. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

38. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use38 Alpine -68.7% Calaveras -58.1% Sierra -55.2% Lassen -52.8% Tuolumne -46.6% San Francisco -45.3% Mono -35.1% Madera -32.1% Fresno -30.0% Marin -29.4% San Mateo -27.5% Shasta -19.3% Colusa -15.4% Sonoma -15.3% Sutter -15.1% Amador -13.3% Napa -10.8% Kings -7.9% Modoc -4.8% Butte -4.2% Santa Cruz -3.3% San Joaquin -2.7% Alameda 0.4% Yolo 1.8% Santa Clara 2.7% Merced 4.1% Del Norte 4.9% Stanislaus 6.5% Solano 7.7% Siskiyou 8.1% Contra Costa 8.2% Sacramento 8.3% Glenn 10.4% Placer 14.0% Yuba 14.7% Tulare 18.0% Monterey 28.5% El Dorado 52.8% Mendocino 57.1% Humboldt 58.1% Lake 71.3% Plumas 77.1% Nevada 78.3% Inyo 90.7% Trinity 91.8% Tehama 134.0% San Benito 139.3% Mariposa Decline Growth No data Northern California Counties 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Increase

39. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use39 The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in Northern California in the past decade. There was a net gain of 334 churches. However, to keep up with the population growth in Northern California, there would have needed to have been a net gain of 1179 churches from 1990 - 2000.

40. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use40

41. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use41 The State of the Church in Northern California... Northern California has one of the lowest church attendance percentages of any area in the United States Although Evangelical and Catholic churches grew in attendance, because of population growth, the percentage of the population attending church has decreased in all categories, resulting in a significant 6% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000. A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Northern California. If the present decade is to rectify that state- wide, 845 more churches would need to be started in the state than in the previous decade.

42. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use42 For More Information... Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.www.theamericanchurch.org 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm The complete Northern California Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/NCA0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/NCA0.htm The Complete Bay Area Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/BayArea.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/BayArea.htm The Complete Sacramento Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Sacramento.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Sacramento.htm The Complete Central Valley Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/CentralValley.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/CentralValley.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Northern California, Bay Area, Sacramento & Central Valley Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/NCA0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/NCA0.htm

43. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use43 Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3 rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.

44. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use44 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches. 1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

45. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use45 For More Information... Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information. To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at DaveTOlson@aol.com.