1. Some Issues to Consider in thinking about Causes and Explanations

2. Issues in Causal Analysis Limitations of traditional, single-causal models in dealing with non-communicable disease which have many, interconnected causes There are many conceptions of causation itself Statistics refers to probability and chance, but what do these actually mean? How do we deal with uncertainty? Levels of explanation: the How vs. the Why? Are we using the right mathematical basis? –Complexity & chaos theory; non-linear relations; fuzzy logic, etc.

3. Epistemology The theory of knowledge: what is knowledge and how is it acquired? How do we know that we know what we think we know? Etc. Bases of knowledge: –Metaphysics –Positivism –Post-positivism

4. Metaphysics Deals with knowledge that cannot be reached through studying material reality –Nature of the mind & ideas –Unverifiable But science alone cannot explain reality –Scientific ideas are continually replaced by newer ones –“Truths” are not final –Human interpretation is variable

5. Positivism Rejects metaphysics –Focuses on observable & measurable –Thoughts are irrelevant because unmeasurable Mechanical –Cause & effect –Seeks to predict & control the world

6. Post-positivism Rejects positivism Knowledge is not based on solid foundations; it is conjectural –We may assert ideas but these can be modified in light of further investigations –We cannot take a fully objective point of view –Context is important –The closest we can come to proof is to try but fail to reject a hypothesis.

7. Nomothetic & Idiographic There is a spectrum of sciences from hard to soft; different approaches to causation in each Especially: generalising vs. particularising traditions: –What is the purpose of science: to derive general laws, or to explain individual cases? (Nomothetic vs. idiographic sciences) –The approach to causal thinking is different in each, and medicine is in both camps

8. Categories of explanation Scientific explanations (theory is central) Narrative (describes what happened) Historical (explains specific events) Teleological (the purpose or reason) Everyday (usually the “why” questions) Magical, religious (are these really explanations ? )

9. Two traditions Aristotelian To make facts teleologically understandable Applied to actions & intentional agency “Why?” questions Used in human & social sciences Galilean To explain & predict Commonly applied to events Causal mechanisms Generally “how?” questions Used in natural sciences Both seem relevant to medicine…

10. Holism, reductionism & complexity theory Basic question of whether a complex whole (e.g., your mind) can be understood in terms of functioning of its parts “Holism” argues that the whole cannot be understood by analyzing parts; “why?” & “how?” are distinct “Reductionism” says that laws governing the whole can be deduced from laws governing the parts, plus laws concerning relations between the parts

11. Sources of explanations for social epidemiology Social sciences – sociology Behavioral science Psychology, personality, etc. Combined psychological + biological (e.g., psycho-neuro-immunology) What about history?