1. Slide -1 (Announcement) Breakout group “Against physical degradation of scientists” Where? Soccer field of Kalimera Hotel When? Friday, 5 pm (after plenary) Who? All interested colleagues Teams? Junior vs. senior?, Exp. vs. Mod?, Nitro vs. Carbo?, Italy vs. rest?

2. The European terrestrial biosphere affected by climate variability 1997-2005 : comparative analysis of processes and spatial patterns (CARBOEUROPE integrated activity) Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle in the Northern Hemisphere Crete, Nov. 2006 Markus Reichstein, Martin Jung, Dario Papale, Mona Vetter, Philippe Ciais, Alexander Knohl, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Nicolas Viovy, Guerric le Maire, Miguel Mahecha, Martin Heimann

3. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 IAV & extremes are important Almost 10 yr of flux data 6-8 yr of HQ remote sensing data Strong IAV signal in many places Motivation for looking at inter-annual variability (IAV) over Europe … Information to be extracted for biospheric modelling Jul-Sep relative fAPAR-anomaly patterns from space (MODIS) against 2000-2005 20032005

4. Continental scale versus inter-annual variability Index of Water Availability: Ea/Ep (mm/mm)Mean annual temperature (°C) GRL, in press cf. also Valentini et al. Law et al. (2002) Contintental Interannual

5. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 NEE signal decomposed by Time-series analysis Analysis: Miguel Mahecha, cf. poster Data: San Rossore (G. Seufert) Variability: high freq. > seasonal >> low freq.

6. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 Overall question: What are the controls over inter-annual variability (IAV) ? Which processes drive IAV ? –GPP versus TER ? –Eco-physiological or bio-physical ? Which environmental variables drive the IAV ? What are the spatio-temporal structures in the flux IAV ? OBSERVATIONS ? MODELS ?

7. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 Which process drives IAV of NEP ? Vetter et al. in prep. NEP anomaly 2003 by bottom-up modelling Also JULES, ANN, PIXGRO show similar patterns

8. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 Which process drives IAV of NEP ? Vetter et al. in prep. TER anomaly 2003 by bottom-up modelling

9. Model-data fusion work-flow at site level Site meteo- rology Site properties (Soil, veg.) Remote sensing observation Coarse-scale weather forecast data Gridded soil properties Texture, water holding capacities Pedo- Transferfunction Local ± 30% Gridded QC/GF, Aggregation, Fusion fAPAR, vegetation type LPJMOD17+ANNBiome-BGCORCHIDEE Regionalized weather forecast data (ECMWF, REMO) Regional met. data MODELLED NEE, GPP, TER, ET, SWC, LAI, NPP and derived properties QC/Gapf. meteorology Gapfilling Site met. data ‘Localized’ met. data Regression on monthly data SITE LEVEL FLUX AND BIOMETRIC OBSERVATIONS OBSERVED NEE, GPP, TER, ET, SWC, LAI, NPP and derived properties QC/spike det. Harmonization Night-flux corr. Gap- filling Flux- partitioning

10. /month] GPP_ORC2 [gC/m 2 /month] 0 10 20 30 Tavg_REMO [°C] Tair_f [ - °C] Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 200020012002200320042005 0.0 0.5 1.0 fAPAR_B2fAPAR_B_all - Data from: Tharandt (Grünwald/Köstner/Bernhofer) Synoptic view on Flux-site: seasonal variability Fluxes Observed Modelled Meteo Remote sens.

11. GPP_f_anom [gC/m 2 /month] 0 NEP_ORC2_anom [gC/m 2 /month] GPP_ORC2_anom [gC/m 2 /month] -5 0 5 Tavg_REMO_anom [°C] Tair_f_anom [°C] - Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 200020012002200320042005 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 fAPAR_B2fAPAR_Ball Fluxes Observed Modelled Meteo Remote sens. Synoptic view on Flux-site: monthly anomalies Data from: Tharandt (Grünwald/Köstner/Bernhofer)

12. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 Correlations GPP-NEP-TER: Full year and by seasons Eddy flux Orchidee model

13. GPP-TER-NEP temporal correlations from ANN spatialization with MODIS-fPAR, and REMO-meteo IAV of NEP ‘explained’: GPP minus TER Correlation GPP & NEP TER & NEP n.s. Papale & Reichstein, Kalimera Hotel, Room P210, Crete, Nov. 2006

14. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 Anomalies analysed by a self-organizing map Luyssaert, Janssens et al. submitted … robust pattern!

15. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 Factors influencing variability

16. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 Correlations with physical drivers differ fundamentally between time-scales Data: San Rossore (G. Seufert) Analysis: M. Mahecha

17. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 Using a process-based model … GPP anomaly with Orchidee model [g m -2 mo -1 ] Eddy GPP anomaly [g m -2 mo -1 ] 1:1

18. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 Lag effects … Hainich Unmanaged mixed beech forest Leinefelde Managed pure beech forest Knohl et al. in prep. … site and species specific.

19. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 Conclusions Eddy flux IAV driven largely by GPP –but interesting exceptions Factor correlations with IAV counter-intuitive and differ and between extreme events and ‘normal variability’ –Non-linearities & thresholds –Factor interactions (e.g. climate x soil x species) –Lag effects Compared to short-term variability, IAV seems more influenced by biology and eco- physiology rather than by ‘physics’ (in forests!) Site specific

20. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 Further steps… More in-depth analysis –More sophisticated data mining (e.g. with Luyssaert, Mahecha, Papale, Janssens) –More process-model analysis and experiments (e.g. with Beer, Braakhekke, Ciais, Delpierre, leMaire, Vetter, Viovy, Zaehle) Comparison with grassland dynamics (with Soussana) More intensive exchange with the scientists at site level

21. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 THANKS … For data from 12 ‘Golden’ sites: M. Aubinet C. Bernhofer N. Buchmann E. Moors A. Granier W. Kutsch A. Lindroth D. Lousteau K. Pilegaard J. Perreira S. Rambal E.-D. Schulze G. Seufert R. Valentini T. Vesala Conference organizers!!! … for your attention !! EU

22. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006

23. Grünwald/Köstner/Bernhofer in prep.

24. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006

26. ΔGPP [gC m -2 mo -1 ] ΔTER [gC m -2 mo -1 ] ΔET [gC m -2 mo -1 ] ΔT air [°C] ΔPrecip [mm] CO 2 and H 2 O flux anomalies during European heatwave 2003 (Jul-Sep avg) versus temperature and precip anomalies Global Change Biology, 2006

27. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 Compensation diminishes single factor effect on NEP GCB, in press ΔNEP [gC m -2 mo -1 ] ΔT air [°C] ΔPrecip [mm] r

28. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 ΔTER [gC m -2 mo -1 ] ΔDrought index [days] ΔNEP [gC m -2 mo -1 ] Precipitation Drought index RespirationNet Ecosystem Productivity YESNO YES Correlation?

29. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006

37. Motivation for Integrated activity “The European terrestrial biosphere affected by the 2000-2005 climate variability: comparative analysis of processes and spatial patterns” Inter-annual variability (2000-2005) Detailed analysis of processes affected (models and site data) Characterization/explanation/ corroboration of spatial patterns Consist.?

38. Open Science Conference on the GHG Cycle, Crete 2006 Objectives Overall question: what are the controls over IAV? Which properties do have interannual variability, which not? Which season dominates ? Which process drives IAV ? –GPP versus TER –Eco-physiological or bio-physical What climate variable drives IAV ? What property of the vegetation drives IAV (fpar versus radiation-use efficiency)? Do the models see similar patterns?