2. The Need for Quantitative Satellite Data for Emissions Modelling Martin G. Schultz, Judith Hoelzemann, and Angelika Heil Contributions from A. Spessa, K. Thonicke, J. Goldammer, A. Held, J.M. Pereira, D. Oom, G. Roberts, M. Wooster, D. Oertel, S. Plummer, T. Lyntham (and others) This work has been funded by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and by the European Commission under contract EVK2-CT-2002-0170 (RETRO)

3. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Fires are important for atmospheric composition - variability - trends  chemical weather (GEMS)  protocol monitoring (Kyoto, CLRTAP), RETRO Global CO Emission Estimates 1960-2000

4. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Existing fire emission inventories show large regional differences PhD J. J. Hoelzemann

6. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Satellite fire products SensorActive fireBurned areaFRP Landsat—  — AVHRR — ATSR —— MODIS SPOT— — GOES/MSG  TRMM —— DSP —— Validation issues for all products!

8. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Comparison of fire products: Indonesia AVHRR-FFPMPall others

9. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Seasonality of fire counts: Indonesia

10. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Mapping fires on ecoregions/landcover WWF ecoregions and screened ATSR nighttime fires D. Oom, B. Mota, and J.M.C. Pereira GLC2000 landcover and GBA2000 burned areas JRC Ispra

11. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Conclusions Diurnal cycle of fire emissions (Africa) from Roberts et al., 2005 Global fire emissions still very uncertain Strong need for monitoring and forecasting Satellite products show great potential Products must be assessed regionally … … and with common measures Statistics for ecoregions might provide insight into reasons for discrepancies

12. Thank you

13. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Methodology of the RETRO inventory Simplified fire equation: M C = A x EF(C) total carbon emissions M i = M C x ER(i, C) other species Area burned (A) and EF(C) from literature survey (tried to identify most detailed and reliable study for each continent/ecosystem); ER from Andreae&Merlet, 2001 with updates Interannual variability mostly from Reg-FIRM with some modifications; boreal area: use statistical data (Canada, Alaska, Siberia)

14. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Aggregate ecosystem classes forest ecosystems wooded ecosystemsgrassland ecosystems

15. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Results for Canada and Alaska

16. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Burned areas in Africa

17. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Burned area estimates for Africa

18. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 7 issues concerning emissions All anthropogenic inventories based on the same reported data Temporal (and spatial) inconsistencies in reported data NMVOC speciation Magnitude of fire emissions Variability of fire emissions Satellite data for fire “assimilation” Scale issue of fire emissions What are the implications for model evaluation?

19. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005

20. Global total carbon emissions 1960-2000 The RETRO wildfire emissions inventory Direct carbon emissions (TgC/year)

21. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Scale issue for fire emissions M = A  C  FL  EF a  b  a  b but Tree LANDSAT pixel MODIS pixel SPOT-VEGETATION/AATSR pixel active fire detection burned area detection

22. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Global total carbon emissions 1960-2000

23. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Fires in the Earth System Boreal regions Fire susceptibility, Ignition ? (lightning) Burned materialLength of fire season Warming increases CO 2 increases Warming increases carbon loss ? smoke plumes (LRT) CO increase ?

24. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Fires in the Earth System Tropical regions (savannas) Fire susceptibilityAvailable fuel Conversion to croplands, Burning frequency Warming changes albedo change direct heating, surface cooling more burning ? carbon loss ? OH ? Available fuel decreases (?) Human pressure increases decreases

25. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Fires in the Earth System Tropical regions (forests) Primary forest area Burning frequency Warming more burning ! carbon loss ! surface cooling ? OH ? Available fuel (deforest., sec. forest, peat drainage) Human pressure increases decreases changes ?

26. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Global satellite fire products MODIS Rapid Response Fires July 2003 (TERRA) hot spots: ATSR (ESA/ESRIN) WFW (JRC-Ispra) MODIS (U. Maryland) TRMM/VIRS (NASA) GOES-ABBA (U. Wisconsin) burned areas: GLOBSCAR (ESA/ESRIN) GBA2000 (JRC-Ispra) MODIS (U. Maryland) AVHRR 8km (JRC-Ispra, ISA-Lisbon) GLOBARBON (ESA/ESRIN)

27. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 MOZART-2 CO columns vs. MOPITT MOPITT GWEM 1.3 mgs_scalcg_scal gfedhao&liu PhD J. J. Hoelzemann

28. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 MOZART-2 ozone vs. MOZAIC Libreville DEC Abidjan JAN PhD J. J. Hoelzemann

29. GLOBCARBON Results – 1 km (Angola) July 1998 63-74% 75-87%88-100% Confidence Rating Index (CRI)

30. GLOBCARBON Results – 1 km (Angola) July 1998 GLOBSCAR onlyGBA only Both algorithms Algorithm Detection (GLOBSCAR, GBA, Both)

31. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Problems with satellite products orbital characteristics –return frequency –swath width –overpass time –drift sensor design –spectral channels –saturation sensor degradation –calibration drift –instrument replacement clouds and smoke size distribution (sub) surface fires algorithms –heterogeneity –snow-melt –flooding –harvesting –smoke landcover mapping

32. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005

33. from Roberts et al., 2005

34. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 from Roberts et al., 2005

35. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005

37. Total number of annual fire counts observed (difference compared to AVHRR-FFPMP)

38. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Regions with episodic outflow CO (ppb) at 850 hPa, July, 5-year mean 1 3 5 2 4

39. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Example CO (ppb) frequency back- ground plume 5 4 3 2 1 difference North Atlantic, July PO 3, LO 3 (ppb/day)net-PO 3 (ppb/day) Altitude (km)

40. QUEST-IGBP fire meeting, Exeter, 27-28 Oct 2005 Results, April GEOS-Chem results, M. Auvray, EPFL background plume difference North Atlantic North Pacific Indian Ocean South Atlantic net-PO 3 (ppb/day) Altitude (km)