1. 1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 12, 2015 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

2. 2 Outline Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3. 3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall over south and southeast Asia has been a mixed bag. Southern India, northeast India, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, eastern Indonesia, New Guinea, eastern Australia particularly Queensland have been below normal, whereas other parts of the region have been at or above normal particularly northwest Australia.

4. 4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall over the region as a whole in general has been at or above normal levels, except over eastern China, Papa New Guinea, and Queensland. Northwestern Australia had excess rainfall in past 30 days.

5. 5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, above normal rainfall was centered over eastern Burma and nearby southwestern China. A strong low pressure center over western Australia brought copious rainfall for the region.

6. 6 Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.

7. 7 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

8. 8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 Forecast maps are not updated this week due to technical difficulties.

9. 9 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

10. 10 Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall over south and southeast Asia has been a mixed bag. Southern India, northeast India, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, eastern Indonesia, New Guinea, eastern Australia particularly Queensland have been below normal, whereas other parts of the region have been at or above normal particularly northwest Australia. For the past 30 days, rainfall over the region as a whole in general has been at or above normal levels, except over eastern China, Papa New Guinea, and Queensland. Northwestern Australia had excess rainfall in past 30 days. In this past week, above normal rainfall was centered over eastern Burma and nearby southwestern China. A strong low pressure center over western Australia brought copious rainfall for the region. In the next weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal rainfall to parts of Indonesian islands and northern Australia.

11. 11 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

12. 12 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

13. 13 Climatology