1. ÁRPÁD KOVÁCS FISCAL COUNCIL HUNGARIAN ECONOMISTS ASSOCIATION UNIVERSITY OF SZEGED CRISIS MANAGEMENT IN THE EU-10 COUNTRIES: A CHANGE OF POSITIONS BUDAPEST, 2013. MARCH 22.

2. 1. Processes leading to the positions in 2013 2.The broad picture: crisis management at home and abroad 3.Snapshot Key points

3. 1. Processes leading to the positions in 2013 2.The broad picture: Crisis management at home and abroad 3.Snapshot

4. Fig. 1. Government debt as a percent of GDP Source: EUROSTAT

5. Fig. 2. Internal Distribution of the Expenditure Gross Sum, as a percent of GDP, 2000 Investments Capital transfer Other current transfers Social expenditures Interest Subsidies Compensation of employees Operating expenditures

6. Source: EUROSTAT Fig. 3. Trends of Government Debt EE SL SK BG CZ LT LV HU PO RO

7. 1. Processes leading to the positions in 2013 2.The broad picture: crisis management at home and abroad 3.Snapshot

8. 1. SZÁMÚ TÁBLÁZAT: A VÁLSÁGKEZELÉS JELLEMZŐ LÉPÉSEI 2008-2009 ÉVEKBEN Country Crisis managing steps taken Significant cutback in goverment expneditures Increasing taxes, customs, additional fees Decreasing taxes, customs, additional fees Taking out significant loan on the financial markets, using for current account payments Taking out loan from international financial institutions, forced by the crisis Introducing extra taxes on banks and financial institutions Introducing extra taxes on services Unique bailout actions for banks New management and / or control agencies in public finances Interventions on the labour market Stimulus programs, consumption revitalization Other, unique act ions (eg, privatization, absorbing pension fund assets ) Changing operational rules for public finances EU-10 BG XXX X X X CZ X X X XX EE X X XX HU XX XX XXX X PO XX X X XX LV XX X X XX LT XXX X XX RO XX XX XX XX SK XX X XX SL XX XX X Table 1. Crisis management 2008-2009 Source: OECD/EU (self edited)

9. 1. Processes leading to the positions in 2013 2.The broad picture: crisis management at home and abroad 3.Snapshot

10. 1. SZÁMÚ TÁBLÁZAT: A VÁLSÁGKEZELÉS JELLEMZŐ LÉPÉSEI 2008-2009 ÉVEKBEN Country Crisis managing steps taken Significant cutback in goverment expneditures Increasing taxes, customs, additional fees Decreasing taxes, customs, additional fees Taking out significant loan on the financial markets, using for current account payments Taking out loan from international financial institutions, forced by the crisis Introducing extra taxes on banks and financial institutions Introducing extra taxes on services Unique bailout actions for banks New management and / or control agencies in public finances Interventions on the labour market Stimulus programs, consumption revitalization Other, unique act ions (eg, privatization, absorbing pension fund assets ) Changing operational rules for public finances EU-10 BG XX X X CZ XX X X EE X X HU XX XX X X XXX XX PO XX X LV X XX X LT XX X RO XXXX XX X SK X X X X X X SL XX X X XXX XX Table 2. Crisis management 2010-2011 Source: OECD/EU (self edited)

11. Fig. 4. Growth trend, as percent of GDP EE SL SK BG CZ LT LV HU PO RO Source: EUROSTAT

12. EE SL SK BG CZ LT LV HU PO RO Source: EUROSTAT Fig. 5. Balance of Public Budget, as percent of GDP

13. Fig. 6. Potential growth, as percent of GDP Source: EUROSTAT, OTP, Szilárd Kondora, László Muraközy V4:HU/CZ/SL/PL; PIIGS: PO/IT/IR/GR/SP Hungary Eurozone avg. V4 avg.PIIGS avg.

14. Fig. 7. Investments and growth, as percent of GDP EU27EU10POCZSKHUSLEELVLTROBG Source: EUROSTAT

15. Source: Reuters, CEE avg and discrepancy from avg, by country Fig. 8. CDS spreads and economic policies

16. Source: Focus Economics, 2013. january; CEE: V4+RO/BG Fig. 9. Expected growth, as percent of GDP HU CEE avg. (ex HU)

17. Source: EUROSTAT; CEE: V4+RO/BG Fig. 10. Investments, as percent of GDP HU CEE avg. (ex PL)

18. Fig. 11. Net placement in private sector by banks, seasonally adjusted, as percent of GDP HU Source: National Banks; CEE: V4+RO/BG

19. Source: EUROSTAT, EC autumn forecasts Fig. 12. Sum expenditure of consolidated budget, as percent of GDP SK CZ HU PO RO BG

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