1. Fermi Award Talks June 21 & 22, 2006 Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission (916) 654-4930 ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html

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5. 5 How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency? uEasiest to tease out is cars –In the early 1970s, only 14 miles per gallons –Now about 21 miles per gallon –If still at 14 mpg, we’d consume 75 billion gallons more and pay $225 Billion more at 2006 prices –But we still pay $450 Billion per year –If California wins the “Schwarzenegger-Pavley” suit, and it is implemented nationwide, we’ll save another $150 Billion per year uCommercial Aviation improvements save another $50 Billion per year uAppliances and Buildings are more complex –We must sort out true efficiency gains vs. structural changes (from smokestack to service economy).

6. 6 How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency (cont’d)? uSome examples of estimated savings in 2006 based on 1974 efficiencies minus 2006 efficiencies uBeginning in 2007 in California, reduction of “vampire” or stand-by losses –This will save $10 Billion when finally implemented, nation-wide uOut of a total $700 Billion, a crude summary is that 1/3 is structural, 1/3 is transportation, and 1/3 is buildings and industry.

7. 7 A supporting analysis on the topic of efficiency from Vice-President Dick Cheney u“ Had energy use kept pace with economic growth, the nation would have consumed 171 quadrillion British thermal units (Btus) last year instead of 99 quadrillion Btus” u“About a third to a half of these savings resulted from shifts in the economy. The other half to two-thirds resulted from greater energy efficiency” Source: National Energy Policy: Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group, Dick Cheney, et. al., page 1-4, May 2001

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10. 10 Carbon Dioxide Intensity and Per Capita CO2 Emissions -- 2001 (Fossil Fuel Combustion Only) 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00 intensity (tons of CO2 per 2000 US Dollar) Tons of CO2 per person Canada Australia S. Korea California Mexico United States Austria Belgium Denmark France Germany Italy Netherlands New Zealand Switzerland Japan

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15. 15 Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE, in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org 75% 60% 25% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006 Year Index (1972 = 100) Effective Dates of National Standards = Effective Dates of State Standards = Refrigerators Central A/C Gas Furnaces SEER = 13

16. 16 Source: David Goldstein

17. 17 Source: David Goldstein

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21. 21 United States Refrigerator Use, repeated, to compare with Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 19471949195119531955195719591961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009 Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year) Refrigerator Use per Unit 1978 Cal Standard 1990 Federal Standard 1987 Cal Standard 1980 Cal Standard 1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal Standard Estimated Standby Power (per house)

22. 22 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 Air Conditioners 空调 TWh 2000 Stds 2005 Stds If EnergyStar TWH/Year 1.5 4.5 6.0 3.0 7.5 Value (billion $/year) Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect. Calculations provided by David Fridley, LBNL Value of TWh 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 Air Conditioners 空调 Wholesale (3 Gorges) at 3.6 c/kWh Retail (AC + Ref) at 7.2 c/kWh 三峡电量与电冰箱、空调能效对比 标准生效后， 10 年节约电量

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26. 26 Illuminating Space vs. the Street

27. 27 Figure 8 Comparison of EE Program Costs to Supply Generation Costs 0.029 0.058 0.118 0.167 0.000 0.020 0.040 0.060 0.080 0.100 0.120 0.140 0.160 0.180 Average Cost of EE Programs for 2000-2004 Base Load GenerationShoulder GenerationPeak Generation $/kWh Demand Supply Options

28. 28 California IOU’s Investment in Energy Efficiency Forecast Profits decoupled from sales Performance Incentives Market Restructuring Crisis IRP 2% of 2004 IOU Electric Revenues Public Goods Charges

29. 29 Energy Action Plan The Energy Action Plan is driven by the Loading Order contained in the multi-agency Energy Action Plan. Since its enactment in 2003, the Loading Order has been integrated into the major CPUC decisions governing energy policy and procurement. Energy resources are prioritized as follows: u1. Energy Efficiency/Demand Response u2. Renewable Generation, including renewable DG u3. Increased development of affordable & reliable conventional generation u4. Transmission expansion to support all of California’s energy goals.

30. 30 Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) with additional curtailment option 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Price (cents/kWh) Standard TOU Critical Peak Price Standard Rate Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Extraordinary Curtailment Signal, < once per year CPP Price Signal 10x per year ? Potential Annual Customer Savings: 10 afternoons x 4 hours x 1kw = 40 kWh at 70 cents/kWh = ~$30/year

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32. 32 The Rosenfeld Fund at the Energy Foundation Interests that I’d like to pursue with the Fermi Prize $375,000 1.In the Developing World: appropriate technology which also reduces carbon emissions uReplacing Kerosene Lamps with LEDs and PV arrays uUltra violet water purification systems uEfficient cook stoves for the Darfur refugee camps 2.Worldwide: Robust Building Technology uSeismic resistant insulated panel construction uWhite and cool-colored roofs uCool Communities 3.Support for Graduate Students in fields related to Energy Efficiency www.EF.org

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34. 34 LEDs Powered with Photovoltaics uEvan Mills at LBNL points out the following: If 1 billion people could replace kerosene lamps with LEDs, emissions would drop by the equivalent of 1 million barrels of petroleum per day uhttp://eetd.lbl.gov/emills/PUBS/Fuel_Based_Lighting.html

35. 35 UV Water Purification

36. 36 Ashok Gadgil at LBNL points out if UV treatment replaces boiling 10 tons of water per day, each system avoids 4 tons of CO2 per day uMeet / exceed WHO and US EPA criteria uEnergy efficient: 60 watts disinfects 1 ton / hour uLow cost: 4 cents disinfects a ton of water uReliable, Mature components uCan treat un-pressurized water uRapid throughput: 12 seconds uLow maintenance: once every three months uhttp://www.waterhealth.com/ Ultra Violet Water Purification for Villages in Developing World

37. 37 In Nov.-Dec. 2005, he visited Darfur camps, and showed that with a $10 metal stove, and training to use it, only half the fuelwood is needed. The stove saves fuelwood worth $160 annually for a refugee family Since that time, Ashok Gadgil has improved stove efficiency by another factor of two http://www.osti.gov/bridge/servlets/p url/878538- hMpqN3/878538.PDF Dr. Ashok Gadgil’s Darfur Cookstove Project

38. 38 Residence after 1999 earthquake near Istanbul

39. 39 Apartments after Earthquake

40. 40 Adhesive Cement (Hardie Board) EPS (‘Styrofoam’) Fiber  Cement Board in 3 thicknesses 7/16” to 3/4”  Used for roofing, flooring, interior and exterior walls  EPS cores from 3.5” to 11.25” http://www.fas.org/main/home.jsp

41. Truck Supported by Panels (6” expanded polystyrene clad with plywood. Pickup supported by 2 panels each 4’ x 24’)

42. 42 Afghan Refugee Housing, 2002