1. ISI-MIP Introduction to Energy Sector Joint LandMIP – ISI-MIP workshop, October 28 2015, Zurich Coordinators: Ioanna Mouratiadou (PIK), Franziska Piontek (PIK), Robert Vautard (IPSL), Michelle van Vliet (Wageningen UR / IIASA)

2. 2 Main focus How climate change impacts: 1.Energy demand Total energy demands for all sectors Heating and cooling energy demands 2.Energy supply Solar Wind Hydro  link to water sector Thermo-electric Biofuels  link to crop models 3.Economics Costs prices Gaps: Fossil extraction Transmission/distribution/transfers

3. 3 Participating models and subgroups Team Model Total Demand Heating/ Cooling Solar Wind Hydro Thermol- electric Biomass Tot. Supply Mixes Economics CEEWGCAM-IIM EPA/PNRLGCAM-USA EPA/NRELReEDS EPA/ICFIPM FEEMFEEM Stat Model IEK-STEKASIM IIASA/WURVIC-RBM IPSL-LSCECLIMIX NIESAIM PACTE-EDDENPOLES PBLIMAGE PNNL/JGCRIGCAM UCLTIAM-UCL orange = statistical models; blue = process based models; green = integrated assessment models (IAMs) 2) supply 1) demand 3) economics

4. 4 Exemplary research questions How does climate change alter energy resources and demand? How does climate change alter risks in energy supply chain? How do the impacts interact and influence the economic output? How do energy impacts influence the pathways to achieving certain climate policy targets? What is the state of the art in modelling climate impacts – how do models compare with observations and intercompare, what are the major problems and gaps?  for this we probably need more participating models !

5. Example: Hydropower testing round – regional level (Michelle van Vliet, Wageningen/IIASA) 2 models: SWIM_WasserKraft, VICHydroP 4 hydropower plants in the Niger, 7 hydropower plants in the Sao Francisco basin Result: Strong agreement in signal of change between both hydropower models SWIM_WasserKraft (2020s) VIC-HydroP (2020s) SWIM_WasserKraft (2050s) VIC-HydroP (2050s) SWIM_WasserKraft (2080s) VIC-HydroP (2080s)

6. Hydropower testing round results: global

7. Hydropower testing round results Global level (FEEMStat, VIC-HydroP): 2020:  41% of countries  consistent decrease  22%  consistent increase 2050:  50%  consistent decrease  17%  consistent increase  VIC-HydroP shows stronger impacts of climate change than FEEMStat (different model approaches, different input data)  Better agreement on regional (power plant) level than on global (country aggregated) level.

8. Energy demand testing round (Enrica Decian, FEEM) 3 (+1) models: EDStat (statistical), POLES (ESM), TIAM-UCL (ESM) (+ AIM (CGE)) Large differences between models, but also very different setups, e.g. w.r.t calculation of and sensitivity to HDD/CDD or treatment of adaptation

9. Variable renewables (R Vautard, LSCE, IPSL) Current ressource, potential extractible energy and their changes with climate Current fleets and future scenario for mixes and installed power without CC Changes in power generation & load factors New optimized mix Study differences Evaluate climate models Build spatialized scenario Evaluate generation models

10. Changes in surface solar radiation in ALL GCMs for the mid-century (2035-2065), reference period 1980-2004, for different RCPs (courtesy of M. Wild B. Bartok) - striped regions indicate cases when all the 5 models give consistent changes in sign Results not consistent for Europe with regional models, to be understood&

11. Changes in potential power output mid century Courtesy of Isabelle Tobin

12. Biomass (Ioanna Mouratiadou, PIK) 4 models: 2 models with input on biomass yields (GCAM, AIM) and 2 models with input on bioenergy supply curves (POLES, TIAM-UCL) Some first results using the land use model MAgPIE indicate considerable positive climate change impacts on bioenergy prices in a high impact scenario (RCP 8.5) when CO2 fertilization is considered Courtesy of Florian Humpenöder No GHG pricing With GHG pricing

13. Example of IMPACT2C results for Europe (+2°C and +3°C) HYDROWIND SOLAR THERMOELECTRIC

14. 14 Main challenges  Very diverse set of modelling approaches, diverse energy impacts and diverse scales  Mix of changes from climate change and socio-economic change effects (i.e. change in characteristics and distribution of power plants)  Lack of participating models in some areas  Climate data to be adapted (eg offshore & hubheight winds)  Complicates direct comparison of all participating models  Also focus on combing complementary approaches for different energy subsectors Two modelling phases – direct impacts, economic consequences – careful harmonization & time needed  Participation to the evaluation round (supply / demand)

15. Additional slides

16. Changes in wind energy density mid century (I Tobin IPSL)

17. 17 Planned simulations  Spatial extent: priority on a global scale but also regional case studies: United States, Europe, Latin- America (Brazil), India  Spatial/Temporal resolution: gridded (0.5° deg), country level, macro-regions daily, yearly, 10-yearly  Scenarios:

18. All bias-corrected ISI-MIP models overall underestimate rsds very similarly compared to 745 GEBA sites, on average by about 15 Wm -2 Evaluation of surface solar fluxes in ISI-MIP models 745 GEBA sites

19. Example: Hydropower testing round – global level  3 models: FEEMStat, VICHydroP, POLES  Runoff from VIC (data-archive) for HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5  Results aggregated to country level, comparison for ~80 countries