1. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Data Assimilation in AMPS Dale Barker S. Rizvi, and M. Duda MMM Division, NCAR Email: dmbarker@ucar.edudmbarker@ucar.edu http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/3dvar

2. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Talk Overview 1.The MM5/WRF 3DVAR system. 2.MM5 3DVAR in Alaska. 3.AMPS observation study. 4.3DVAR performance in AMPS. 5.Ensemble Kalman Filter in AMPS.

3. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 1.The MM5/WRF 3D- Var System

4. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology MM5/WRF 3DVAR Algorithm Define analysis increments: x a = x b + I x’ Solve model space, incremental cost function: where y’ = Hx’, y o’ = y o - y. Preconditioned control variable v analysis space ( B = UU T ): Choice of background error covariance model (NCAR, NCEP).

5. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology MM5/WRF Background Preprocessing 3DVAR Observation Preprocessor Background Error Calculation B MM5/WRF Forecast xbxb xaxa yoyo Update Boundary Conditions 3DVAR in the MM5/WRF Modeling Systems Cold-Start Mode

6. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3DVAR Observation Preprocessor Background Error Calculation B MM5/WRF Forecast xbxb xaxa yoyo Update Boundary Conditions Cycling Mode 3DVAR in the MM5/WRF Modeling Systems

7. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 2. MM5 3D-Var in Alaska Courtesy of AFWA

8. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3DVAR/MM5 AFWA Alaska “T1” Theater

9. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology MM5 3D-Var Comparisons: Alaska Theater (T1)

10. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology MM5 3D-Var Comparisons: Alaska Theater (T1) MM5 production (MVOI) compared to 3D-Var initialized MM5 over the Alaska Theater Two cycles were run: 6Z and 18Z Data from both cycles is averaged together Model runs occurred between 9/7/02 and 9/15/02 All verification is compared to observations

11. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology MM5 3D-Var Comparisons: Alaska Theater (T1)

12. AFWA Europe “T3A” 45km Verification: June 4-July 10 2002. Height Relative Humidity 3DVAR  vs. MVOI ( ). Verification against radiosondes: 00hr, 12hr, 24hr.

13. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3. AMPS Observation Study

14. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Observations Available (September 2003)  In-Situ: -Surface (SYNOP, METAR, SHIP, BUOY). -Upper air (TEMP, PIBAL, AIREP, ACARS).  Remotely sensed retrievals: -Wind profiler. -Atmospheric Motion Vectors (SATOBS). -ATOVS thicknesses (SATEMs). -GPS total precipitable water. -GPS refractivity. -SSM/I oceanic surface wind speed and TPW. -SSM/T1 temperature. -SSM/T2 relative humidity. -Scatterometer (Quikscat) oceanic surface winds. -Radar radial velocity.  Radiances: -SSM/I brightness temperatures.

15. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology December 2002 AMPS Observation Statistics a)Present statistics for 30km AMPS domain 2. b)3DVAR performed at 00 and 12 UTC. c)First Guess = NCEP “final” analysis. d)Total 62 analyses.

16. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology December 2002 AMPS 30km Temperature Statistics TGoodReject% RejectMean O-B (K) St. Dv. O-B (K) Synop191911860.01343.1521 Metar9791520.11012.6628 Ships452306-0.08651.4380 Sound115549510.00291.3585 Aircraft1619540.77542.3836 Current setup: 12 hourly “cold starts” from NCEP global analysis

17. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology December 2002 AMPS 30km Wind Statistics WINDGoodReject% RejectMean O-B (m/s) St. Dv. O-B (m/s) Synop U1378272160.10642.5642 Synop V1275375230.38042.5565 Metar U81692100.33962.4143 Metar V712196220.27793.0824 Ship U16718100.33962.4143 Ship V1701580.15521.9525 Sound U103781311-0.05781.9560 Sound V103711381-0.02892.0858 Pilot U46000.25032.0571 Pilot V46000.04362.2041 Aircraft U39817-0.25015.6123 Aircraft V42511-0.03325.5312

18. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology December 2002 Synop T, p variation by station. a)Variety of diagnostic utilities developed. b)Some stations indicate bias w.r.t. model. c)Need to update station elevations?

19. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Preliminary Testing of MODIS (TERRA) data Data time: 12 UTC 12/01/2002 Time Window: +/- 90 minutes. QC: Reject if O-B>5 sigma_o Observation Error: 4.5m/s 3060 obs after QC in 45km area. O-B mean/std.dev = 0.53, 5.26m/s

20. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Preliminary Testing of MODIS (TERRA) data MODIS O-B vs Latitude MODIS O-B vs Pressure

21. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Preliminary Testing of MODIS (TERRA) data 55 obs after QC in 15km area. O-B u mean/rms = 4.32/6.88m/s O-A u mean/rms = 0.77/3.72m/s J / num_obs = 0.468

22. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 4. 3DVAR performance in AMPS Work performed by Syed Rizvi, Mike Duda

23. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3DVAR Background Error – Vertical Eigenvectors Streamfunction Old (global) – above, New (AMPS) – below. Velocity Potential Conclusion: Minor differences in streamfunction. Very different dominant mode for velocity potential.

24. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3DVAR Background Error – Horizontal Lengthscales Old (global) – above, New (AMPS) – below. StreamfunctionVelocity Potential Conclusion: “Local” lengthscales significantly shorter. Should result in closer fit to observations.

25. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3DVAR Single Observation Test

26. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3DVAR Single Observation Test p o - p b = 1mb, observation error = 1mb.

27. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3DVAR Single Observation Test p o - p b = 1mb, observation error = 1mb.

28. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3DVAR Analysis – 00 UTC 17 June 2003 Sea Level P, Surface Wind T, p increment

29. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3DVAR Analysis – 00 UTC 17 June 2003 Sea Level P, Surface Wind u, v increment

30. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology AMPS Domain 1 Real-Time Verification: T+00

31. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology AMPS Domain 1 Real-Time Verification: T+12

32. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology AMPS Domain 1 Real-Time Verification: T+24

33. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology AMPS Domain 1 Real-Time Verification: T+36

34. NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Conclusions and Future Work “Basic” 3DVAR operational in AFWA Alaskan domain. Antarctic December 2002-January 2003 data collection underway (GPS, MODIS, includes tuning of ob errors). AMPS real-time data ingest issues isolated, working on. Initial performance of 3DVAR in AMPS is satisfactory. 3DVAR/Ensemble Kalman Filter comparison begun.