1. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 1 Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions as a basis for biodiversity policies Felix Rauschmayer, Department of Economics, Sociology, and Law Introduction Three dimensions of uncertainty: –scientific –value –societal Multi-criteria decision aid Conclusion

2. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 2 1. Introduction Measures may be taken on four levels: 1) the import of foreign species, 3) their establishment, and/or 2) their introduction into nature, 4) their invasion Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer Societal decisions about policies against biological invasions need assessments that integrate economic, social and ecological aspects. A biological invasion is the establishment and the non- intended spread of an alien species.

3. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 3 The assessment process may be divided into three steps: 1) Specify the underlying physical effects of invasions and of measures against invasions. 2) Assess the impacts of invasions on the social and economic environment. 3) Evaluate these assessments according to their importance. 1. Introduction Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer

4. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 4 2. a) Scientific uncertainty about the prognostics of the impacts Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer Knowledge about probabilities Knowledge about facts unproblematic problematic Ignorance Ambiguity Incertitude unproblematic problematic Risk

5. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 5 Risk aspects: (1) there are – at least in moderated or arctic regions – a lot of species for which the probability of establishment is nearly zero, and Incertitude and ignorance aspects: (1) the probabilities of a single species to establish or invade vary to a large extent, (2) It has not been possible to make general statistics concerning the invasion probability dependent on any variables of the biota. (3) We are not in a position to isolate reasonable hypotheses concerning the real probability of a certain species to get established or to become a pest. 2. a) Scientific uncertainty about the prognostics of the impacts Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer

6. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 6 There are some species for which the consequences of invasions come close to a catastrophe. Others are unproblematic.  It is rational not to take drastic measures concerning species with nearly no probability of establishment, and it is also rational to take measures which inhibit catastrophes.  In cases of high uncertainty, it is rational to choose the measure with the smallest potential negative effects. 2. a) Scientific uncertainty about the prognostics of the impacts Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer

7. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 7 2. b) Value uncertainty Four moral questions for a decision maker in environmental fields: Do only humans count? If yes: Do only existing humans count? If yes: Do only persons count? If yes: Do persons always know best what is good for them? Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer

8. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 8 2. b) Value uncertainty Taking decisions about biological invasions means to take morally complex decisions : (1) where many entities are concerned by a decision, (2) where it is not sure who these entities are, (3) where the decision touches upon many aspects of life, and (4) where irreversible consequences are to be expected.  Any assessment method must be open to different ethical conceptions, to integrate non-persons, and to respect the right of future generations. Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer

9. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 9 Two arguments in favour of participatory decision making: –the functional and –the ethical-normative argument. Who participates? –Decision processes concerning measures against import or establishment have to be open to the discourse of a large array of stakeholders. –The aspects of value uncertainty discussed above call for advocatory participation for non-persons or non-living persons. 2. c) Societal uncertainty Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer Who shall participate in the decision process?

10. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 10 Identify problem and actors 1. Selection of alternatives 3. Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix 5. Decision recommendation 6. 3. Multi-criteria decision aid poss. Evaluation criteria 2. 7. Implementation

11. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 11 3. Multi-criteria decision aid  There are few and explicit transformation steps,  Transparency for outsiders and openness to changes within the process are characteristics of this assessment technique,  The different uncertainties may be handled separately, Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer

12. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 12 Identify problem and actors 1. Selection of alternatives 3. Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix 5. Decision recommendation 6. 3. Multi-criteria decision aid Evaluation criteria 2. 7. Implementation range of or fuzzy numbers

13. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 13 3. Multi-criteria decision aid  There are few and explicit transformation steps,  Transparency for outsiders and openness to changes within the process are characteristics of this assessment technique.  The different uncertainties may be handled separately,  Through the consideration of thresholds it is possible to reduce overall substitutability of the different values, Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer

14. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 14 Identify problem and actors 1. Selection of alternatives 3. Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix 5. Decision recommendation 6. 3. Multi-criteria decision aid Evaluation criteria 2. 7. Implementation Thresholds

15. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 15 3. Multi-criteria decision aid  There are few and explicit transformation steps,  Transparency for outsiders and openness to changes within the process are characteristics of this assessment technique.  The different uncertainties may be handled separately,  Through the consideration of thresholds it is possible to reduce overall substitutability of the different values,  Multi-dimensional conception of the ”good”, Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer

16. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 16 Identify problem and actors 1. Selection of alternatives 3. Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix 5. Decision recommendation 6. 3. Multi-criteria decision aid Evaluation criteria 2. 7. Implementation Different criteria

17. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 17 3. Multi-criteria decision aid  There are few and explicit transformation steps,  Transparency for outsiders and openness to changes within the process are characteristics of this assessment technique.  The different uncertainties may be handled separately,  Through the consideration of thresholds it is possible to reduce overall substitutability of the different values,  Multi-dimensional conception of the ”good”,  Non-persons or future persons may be considered explicitly. Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer

18. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 18 Identify problem and actors 1. Selection of alternatives 3. Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix 5. Decision recommendation 6. 3. Multi-criteria decision aid Evaluation criteria 2. 7. Implementation Advocates DiscountingAdvocates Critical Capital

19. UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH 19 The main difference between mono-criterion assessments and multi- criteria decision analysis is less its mono- vs. multi-criteria approach, but the facility of the latter to be embedded in a social decision context. With multi-criteria decision aid, it is more facile to lay open the uncertainties in all three dimensions and to make them an explicit topic for public discourse. Therefore, it seems suitable as an assessment method for biological invasions and as a basis for biodiversity policies in general. 4. Conclusion Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer