1. Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters, 19-21 October, 2005 Assessment of Drought Impact in Balochistan, Pakistan: Case Study Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources Engr. Muhammad Azam Director

2. Part-I: Drought in Balochistan Part-II: Main Result of the Case Study

3. Geographical Area:796,044 km 2 Desert Area: 110,000 km 2 ProvinceArid (km 2 ) Semi Arid (km 2 ) Sub Humid (km 2 ) Humid (km 2 ) Total Area (km 2 ) Punjab119,31059,678170,1410,197206,199 Sindh134,8966,018--140,914 Balochistan149,467197,723--347,190 NWFP6,19416,49115,16036,67674,521 FATA-13,58011,2392,40127,220 Total:409,867293,49043,41349,274796,044 % of Total 51.4936.875.456.19100 Province-Wise Aridity in Pakistan

4. Present Land-Use Statistics 1. Area not available for cultivation (58.6%) 2. Forest (5%) 3. Culturable waste (21.1%) 4. Fallow (6.5%) 5. Net sown 20.346 01.875 08.715 02.257 01.528 Total Geographical Area 34.720 Source: Agriculture Statistics of Balochistan (1996-97) S.No. Description Area (MHA) Total No. of Districts= 26 ZHOB Q I L L A S A I F U L L A H L O R A L A I K A L A T SIBI KHUZDAR CHAGAI KHARAN PANJGUR TURBAT ARABIAN SEA LASBELA Z I A R A T M A S T U N G Q U E T T A AWARAN Jiwani KOHLU P I S H I N K. A B D U L L A H Ormara Pasni N A S I R A B A D GAWADAR K AC H H I DERA BUGTI

6. Livestock Population in Balochistan (million Heads) ProvinceSheepGoatCamelCattlePunjab5.918.30.1423.9 Sindh4.411.70.2313.9 Balochistan10.710.60.331.7 NWFP3.28.60.066.3 Total:24.249.20.7645.8 % of Total in Balochistan 4422434

7. Major Fruit Production in Balochistan (000, tonnes) ProvinceAppleApricotGrapePomegranateAlmondPunjab2.50.5-15.3- Sindh0.2---- Balochistan437.8155.965.779.143.0 NWFP91.919.41.62.32.9 Total:532.3175.867.396.746.0 % of Total in Balochistan 8287988293

8. Water Resources of Balochistan Water Source Quantity (Bm3) Surface Water 26.13 Canals (Indus River System) 10.44 Flood Runoff (Rainfall) 15.69 Groundwater1.07 Total:27.20

9. Major Water Issues in Balochistan  Water Scarcity  High Evaporation Losses (3000 mm)  Low water use efficiencies  Depleting groundwater aquifers

10.  Total Cultivated Area: 1.99 Mha  Irrigated Farming: 58% –Canal Irrigation –Karez/Spring Irrigation –Tubewell/Lift Irrigation  Dry Farming: 42% –Sailaba (Floodwater) Irrigation –Khushkaba (Rainfall/Localized Runoff) Irrigation Crop Production Systems in Balochistan

11. Karez Irrigation Tap and convey groundwater by gravity in open channels or underground tunnels to command areas.

12. Sailaba Irrigation Diversion and Spreading of Intermittent Flow of Hill Torrents

13. Khushkaba Irrigation Crops at the mercy of rain and sheet flow from mountain during rainstorms by constructing low dykes across flow paths in piedmont plains.

14. Drought Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather which persists long enough to produce a serious hydrologic imbalance

15. Types of Drought Slight:When the rains are 50% below normal during a particular crop season Mild:When the rains continue to be 50% below normal for the two crop seasons Moderate:When the rains are 50% below normal and continue for the three consecutive crop seasons Severe:When the below normal rain persists, continues and prolongs up to four crop seasons

16. Average Annual Rainfall

17. Barkhan, Khuzdar, Kohlu, Moderate Effected Districts: Severe Effected Districts: Awaran, Bolan, Chagai, Dera Bugti, Gwadar, Jhal Magsi, Loralai Musa Khail, Sibi, Kalat, Kharan, Kila Saifullah, Kila Abdullah, Lasbela, Khuzdar Mastung, Panjgoor, Pishin, Quetta, Turbat Zhob, Ziarat

18. Part - II

19.  To assess socio-economic impacts of drought based on improved methodology  To identify key parameters and possible indicators for measuring impact of drought disaster Objectives of the Case Study

20. 1) Reviewed preliminary drought reports 2) Selected study area 3) Identified key parameters and indicators according to the objectives 4) Collected damaged data from the relevant Govt. departments, NGOs, individuals, etc. 5) Conducted interviews of all stake holders 6) Analyzed the collected data/information 7) Drafted drought impact assessment report Adopted Approachfor Drought Impact Assessment Adopted Approach for Drought Impact Assessment

21.  Accessibility of the study area  Socio economic importance of the area  Visible drought effect due to recorded reduced rainfall  Continuous drop in water tables, river flows and surface reservoirs  Reasonable data/information available for analysis (pre and post drought period) Selected Study Area: Pishin Lora Basin AdoptedCriteria for Selection of Study Area Adopted Criteria for Selection of Study Area

22. S.# River Basin Groundwater Resources (Million cubic meter) AvailableUsedBalance 1Human-e-Lora33.9016.8417.06 2Kachi37.8011.9025.90 3Nari25.6025.600.00 4 Pishin Lora 129.60129.600.00 5Porali149.1074.6074.50 6Hub119.4059.6059.80 7 Winder Nai 10.905.205.70 8Zhob111.70102.409.30 9Dasht45.508.9036.60 10Rakshan24.004.4019.60 11Hamun-e-Musakhel61.004.7056.30 12Hingol265.00132.70132.30 13Gaj34.0018.0016.00 14Mula23.009.0014.00 1070.50603.44467.06 Source: Balochistan Conservation Strategy, 2000 Annual Groundwater Potential in River Basins

24.  Northern highland region of Balochistan  Climate: cold winters and mild summer  Annual precipitation: 150 to 200 mm  Landscape characterized by hill torrents, mountain ranges, piedmont plains and alluvial fans  Soils: calcareous, derived from limestone, sandstones and sedimentary rocks, low in organic matter  Main economy: livestock and agriculture Pishin Lora Basin

25. S.# Sub basin Area (km 2 ) Main Cities/Towns 1Pishin6,818Quetta*Pishin* Killa Abdullah* MastungKuchlaghKalatKolpur 2Mangochar664 3Quetta1,780 4Mastung785 5Kalat2,220 6Kapoto167 7 Sardar Khel 491 8Kolpur111 9Kuchlagh1,734 10Shirinab1,312 11 Patki Shahnawaz 988 Total17,070 Quetta, Killa Abdullah and Pishin Sub-basins of Pishin-Lora

26. Selected Districts DistrictQuettaPishin K- Abdullah Total Geographical Area (Mha) 0.2650.5850.5261.376 Population (million) 0.7590.3660.3911.516 Households (000, No.) 995950208

27. Priority Order ParameterIndicator 1LivestockSheep/goat 2OrchardsApple 3CropsWheat 4 Groundwater dependable sources  Tubewell  Kareze  Spring 5Households  Diet  Health Identified Key Parameters and Indicators

28.  Meteorology Office, Quetta  Provincial Agriculture Department  Provincial Irrigation and Power department  Arid Zone Research Centre  Water Resources Development and Planning Centre Identified Relevant Agencies

29.  Participatory appraisal survey (RPA)  Questionnaire development and testing  Questionnaire parameters include land holding, crops/orchards, livestock, living habits, diet, irrigation sources, market prices of items (pre & post drought)  Sample size in each district: 150 Interviews of Stakeholders

30. ParameterQuettaPishinKila Abdullah Total Sheep/goat before drought (No.) 106,942440,637285,519833,098 Perished during drought period (No.) 96,248370,135254,112720,495 Perished (%)90848988 Total Losses* (Rs. in million) 2027775341513 Present average market price per head: Rs. 2100/- Direct Losses to Sheet/Goat

31. ParameterQuettaPishinKila Abdullah Total Sheep/goat before drought (No.) 106,942440,637285,519833,098 Sale during drought period (No.) 96,248370,135254,112720,495 Total Losses* (Rs. in million) 1445553811081 Average sale loss: Rs. 1500/- Indirect Losses to Sheet/Goat

32. Loss of two completely lost breeding seasons (2001 & 2002) because of reduced conception due to poor feed and health Abortion in pregnant animals due to poor feed and health Kid mortality occurred due to shortage of milk with mothers Drastic reduction in wool and hair Non-Quantified Indirect Losses

33. Reduction in stock buildup capacity Depletion of flock owners’ ready cash to meet household needs Affected cottage industries due to reduction in wool and hair Reduction in meat, milk and milk products Drastic Increase of mutton prices in Quetta by almost 60% Secondary Effects

34. Impact of Drought on Orchards

35. ParameterQuettaPishin Killa Abdullah Total Orchards before drought- Nos. 8411,5215,1857,547 Dried trees during drought-Nos. 425,900885,000 1351,6 00 2662,500 Dried trees per orchard-Nos. 5065822611,349 Annual fruit production/tree-kg 30303030 Market price per kg – Rs. 20202020 Annual fruit value per tree – Rs. 600600600600 Annual loss per orchard – Rs. 303,600349,200 156,60 0 809,400 Total annual damage (million Rs) 2555318121,598 Direct Losses of Apple Orchards

36. Indirect Losses of Apple Orchards ParameterQuettaPishin Killa Abdullah Yield before drought (kg/ha) 15,14915,27915,279 Yield during drought period (kg/ha) 1,6915,9715,204 Yield reduction (kg/ha) 13,4589,30812,775 Loss per hectare (Rs)* 269,160186,160255,500 Orchard area before drought (ha) 3,0254,2984,299 Total Loss (million Rs) 8148001,098 * Market price per kg=Rs20 Indirect Losses of Apple Orchards

37.  Loss of farm labor  Unemployment in the market  Increase in prices  Effect on factory labor  …….. Secondary Effects

38. ParameterQuettaPishinKilla Abdulla h Total Wheat area before drought (ha) 3,50022,2007,86833,568 Wheat area during drought (ha) 2,5107,5672,45512,532 Reduction in area (ha)99014,6335,41321,036 Wheat yield before drought (kg/ha) 2189210923592219 *Total Direct Loss (million Rs) 1623196343 * Market price per 40 kg is Rs. 300/- Direct Losses of Wheat Crop

39. ParameterQuettaPishinKilla Abdullah Total Wheat Production before drought (tons) 7,66046,83018,56473,054 Wheat Production during drought (tons) 4,99815,8854,36925,252 Production reduction (tons) 2,66230,94514,19547,802 *Total Indirect Loss (million Rs) 20232107359 * Market price per 40 kg is Rs. 300/- Indirect Losses of Wheat Crop

40.  Loss of farm labor  Loss of straw/fodder  Unemployment in the market  Price increase of cereal products  Effect on factory labor  …….. Secondary Effects

41. Huna Lake,Quetta

42. ParameterQuettaPishinKila Abdullah Total Working tubewells prior to drought (No.) 8202,2104,2027232 Tubewells dried during drought period (No.) 4991,3012,5754375 Tubewells dried (%)61596160 Average groundwater level declined (m) 152137163151 *Additional drilling cost with 10% increase in electric charges (Rs. in million) 0.290.260.310.29 Cumulative capital loss (Rs. In Million) 1453387981281 Indirect Capital Loss of Dried Tubewells * Drilling cost with pipe assembling = Rs. 1640/m 10% increase in electric motor and electrification = Rs: 40,000/-

43. ParameterQuettaPishinKila Abdullah Total *Alive Karezes before drought (No.) 55350398803 Karezes vanished during drought period (No.) 45292284621 Dried Karezes (%)82837179 **Sale price of irrigation water per annum (Rs. in million) 2.6 Capital loss per annum (Rs. in million) 1177597381614 Capital loss during drought (Rs. in million) 702455444289684 Indirect Capital Loss of Dried Karezes * Karez discharge = 1 cusec ** Sale price = Rs. 300/hr

44. ParameterQuettaPishinKila Abdullah Total *Alive spring before drought (No.) 596091,4002068 Springs vanished during drought period (No.) 524881,1951735 Dried springs (%)88808584 **Sale price per annum (Rs. in million) 1.31 Capital loss per annum to farmers (Rs. in million) 686391,5652,27 3 Capital loss during drought to farmers (Rs. in million) 408383493901363 2 Indirect Capital Loss of Dried Springs * Spring discharge = 1/2 cusec ** Sale price = Rs. 300/hr

45. BeforeDuring Wheat bread, meat, tea, milk, yogurt, vegetables and fruits Limited to wheat flour and tea only Health Common health complaints: diarrhea, vomiting and fever Widespread malnutrition among women and children Life of infants at risk due to shortage of breast milk More vulnerability in patients of tuberculosis and hepatitis Diet Impact of Drought on Diet/Health

46. Indicator Financial Loss (million Rs) Total Direct LossIndirect Loss QuettaPishinKilla Abdullah QuettaPishinKilla Abdullah Sheep/Goat2027775341445553812593 Apple Orchard 25553181281480010984310 Wheat162319620232107702 Tubewell---1453387981281 Karez---702455444289684 Spring---4083834939013632 Total (million Rs) 473153914422233103131620232202 Cumulative Financial Losses during Drought

47. Districts (No.) Population (million) Impact (Rs. billion) 31.5132 266.57140 Macro-Economic Impact

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