1. Evaluating Land Reform in Nicaragua: Hypotheses and Approach * Anne Rothbaum & Theresa Osborne Millennium Challenge Corporation Land Policies and Legal Empowerment of the Poor World Bank Rural Week Conference November 2006 *Collaborative work with Michael Carter, University of Wisconsin & Juan Sebastian Chamorro, MCA-Nicaragua

2. Overview Background: a) Impact of tenure security programs; b) Insecure property rights in Nicaragua; and c) Analysis of credit and collateral Challenges of rural development in Nicaragua The MCC program in Nicaragua Impact Evaluation Strategy

3. Background: Impact of tenure security programs Feder’s seminal work and subsequent literature  Investment demand channel  Credit supply  In Thailand, found some positive effects. Is land security and transferability sufficient? Carter and Olinto (AJAE 2002)  Total K increases, proportionally less for smallholders  Probability of being credit “constrained” remained the same for these smallholders.  Additional measures appear needed for the poor

4. Background: Insecure property rights in Nicaragua

5. Source: Boucher, S., B. Barham and M. Carter (2005). “The Impact of Market Friendly Reforms on the Operation of Credit and Land Markets in Honduras and Nicaragua,” World Development 33(1): 107-128. Background: Analysis of credit and collateral in Nicaragua

6. Challenges of Rural Development in Nicaragua MCA-Nicaragua Proposal identified the following as constraints to growth  Under-developed infrastructure  Low-value added rural businesses  Insecure property rights

7. The MCC Program in Nicaragua MCC strategy of country programs, evaluation, etc. Specifics of Nicaragua Compact  Transportation  Property Regularization  Rural Business Development

8. Impact Evaluation Strategy