1. Alcohol marketing and consumption: A review of the scientific evidence Patrick Kenny School of Marketing, Dublin Institute of Technology Institute for Social Marketing, University of Stirling Pat.Kenny@dit.ie

2. What is marketing? ProductPricePlacePromotion

3. Product  Not just the physical product but the brand  Brands have personalities  Appeal to consumers with those characteristics or who want to have those characteristics Alcohol expectancies  Positioned in the market and target consumers  New product development

4. Positioning of alcopops  “Young people seem less prepared to sip beer for hours, culturally they like short sharp fixes…five years ago there were less alternatives to getting a buzz or getting high. The challenge for the industry is to make alcohol part of that choice.”  “Youngsters can get Ecstasy for £10 or £12 and get a much better buzz than they can from alcohol...it is a major threat to alcohol led business”

5. Price  Connected to the brand  Supports the positioning of the brand and is targeted at a specific market

6. Place  Physical distribution of the brand and merchandising  Carefully negotiated to reinforce brand position

7. Promotion  It is NOT just television advertising Advertising Sponsorship Online PR Packaging  Focused around the brand, not the product  Highly integrated and mutually reinforcing  Most research on advertising

8. Alcohol marketing attracts the young  Humour  Music  Animal characters  Storyline  The more likeable the ad, the greater the influence Focus on the product itself is less appealing

9. Young people vulnerable  “Adolescent self-consciousness and self-doubt may lead them to rely on consumption symbols for self-expression and self-worth and to manifest materialism to a greater extent than adults…adolescents may be especially tempted to use heavily advertised, popular brands of alcohol …because these brands may fulfill their needs for immediate gratification and thrill seeking and their need for high-status consumption symbols” Pechmann et al 2005

10. The industry’s main argument  Alcohol is a mature market Advertising causes brand switching in mature markets  Advertisers are not concerned with their competitors brands or with increasing product category as a whole  Relies on econometric studies

11. How industries evolve

12. Econometric studies  Statistical models that seek relationships between total alcohol consumption and total advertising expenditure  Sometimes include other factors Income, price, economic growth, time of year. the weather(!)

13. Results of econometric studies  Generally suggest that there is no (or very small) relationship between advertising and alcohol consumption  Similar results when examining consumption before and after advertising bans

14. British studies  McGuinness (1980): small relationship between spirit ads and consumption but not for other alcohol types Data examined by others with similar results Godfrey (1988): spirit ads reduced demand for wine Consistent with industry’s argument  Duffy (1982, 1983, 1990, 1991) used quarterly data Advertising at most has a minute effect  Dorsett and Dickerson (2004) monthly analysis from 1988-2001 100 other variables No relationship between advertising and consumption Consumer confidence and weather stronger than advertising

15. Evidence from Europe  Calfee and Scherage (1994): study of French, German, Dutch and British markets from early 1970’s to late 1980’s No relationship between advertising and consumption Alcohol advertising doubled in Netherlands and tripled in France during the period

16. Evidence from the Americas  Similar to European and British work  Evidence from the United States (Franke & Wilcok, 1987 and Tegene, 1990) and from Canada (Bourgeois and Barnes) shows no relationship between advertising and consumption

17. Evidence from advertising bans  A natural quasi-experiment using econometric methods  Smart & Cutler (1976): no change in British Columbia after a 14 month ban  Ogborne & Smart (1980): no difference between Manitoba (with a ban) and Alberta (without a ban)  Makowsky & Whitehead (1991): no change before and after a 58 year ban in Saskatchewan  Saffer (1991): countries with bans had lower consumption and car crash fatalities Findings and direction of causality disputed (Young, 1993)

18. Weakness of econometric studies  Use only estimates of advertising expenditure  Estimates only cover media costs, not creativity  Even with exact costs, it’s still too blunt Ignores creativity, interaction and media vehicle effects  No control for international spillover  Rarely account for lagged effects across time  Effects of extra advertising likely to be very small  Ignores wider marketing mix and integration  Examines entire market and ignores segmentation issues

19. Why segmentation is important  Young people a significant concern  A weak impact of advertising at the level of the population may just reflect the average of no effect amongst established drinkers and a more significant impact on younger consumers (Aitken & Hastings, 1992)  Younger adolescents with less drinking experience and less cognitive development are more susceptible to advertising (Collins et al 2007).

20. The irony of econometric research  Marketers do not use econometrics to evaluate the effectiveness of their campaigns  Advertising effectiveness examined at level of the consumer  Consumer level appropriate for alcohol debate Alcohol expectancies at the individual level an important driver of behaviour

21. Longitudinal studies  Most scientifically rigorous  Tracks consumers over time  Capable of showing causality

22. 3 approaches to consumer studies Correlates advertising and attitudes or behaviour Generally indicates a relationship Major problems with direction of causality Cross sectional surveys A dose-response relationship in an artificial setting Methodologically and ethically very suspect Most find no relationship except Engels et al (2009) Experimental studies Measures exposure to advertising and subsequent behaviour controlling for other important factors Theoretically capable of indicating causality Most studies show a relationship Longitudinal studies

23. Meier et al (2008)  “Regardless of their explicit intention there is evidence for an effect of alcohol advertisements on underage drinkers. Consistent with this, evidence suggests that exposure to…TV, music videos and billboards, which contain alcohol advertisements, predicts onset of youth drinking and increased drinking.”

24. Anderson et al (2009)  “Longitudinal studies consistently suggest that exposure to media and commercial communications on alcohol is associated with the likelihood that adolescents will start to drink alcohol…Based on the strength of this association, we conclude that alcohol advertising and promotion increases the likelihood that adolescents will start to use alcohol, and to drink more if they are already using alcohol.”

25. Smith & Foxcroft (2009)  “The data from these studies suggest that exposure to alcohol advertising in young people influences their subsequent drinking behaviour. The effect was consistent across studies, a temporal relationship between exposure and drinking initiation was shown, and a dose response between amount of exposure and frequency of drinking was clearly demonstrated…It is certainly plausible that advertising would have an effect on youth consumer behaviour, as has been shown for tobacco and food marketing.”

26. Connolly et al (1994)  And follow ups by Casswell et al (1998 and 2002)  Those who recalled and liked advertising more likely to drink at follow up  But effects wore off at later follow ups  May mean that advertising has a stronger influence on younger consumers and that personal experience and other factors become more important later

27. Snyder et al (2006)  1872 15-26 year old followed up 4 times over 21 months  For each additional advertisement viewed consumption increased by 1%  For each additional dollar per capita spent on advertising consumption increased by 3%

28. Robinson et al (1998)  Examined media exposure and consumption Widely defined – TV viewing, video music, movies and games  1533 14-15 year olds in California followed over 18 months  For each additional 1 hour of television viewing over 18 months there was a 9% increased chance of alcohol initiation  Each additional hour of music videos increased the risk by 31%

29. Other aspects of marketing McClure et al (2006) Fisher et al (2007) Branded clothing Wyllie et al (1989) Sponsorship Coate & Grossman (1988) Pricing Goldberg et al (1994) Jackson et al (2000) New product development Casswell (2004) Online marketing

30. ASAI Code  Section 7.4(a) should not imply that the presence or consumption of alcohol can contribute to social…success or distinction  Section 7.4(b) should not suggest, by word or allusion that the presence or consumption of alcohol can contribute towards sexual success or make the drinker more attractive.

31. Strategic ambiguity  Mixed messages  Evidence that young people consider “responsible drinking” to mean not drink driving  Can those who profit from alcohol be expected to credibly encourage its reduced consumption?

32. Codes and regulation  Has been an improvement with respect to compliance Central Copy Clearance  Fewer complaints May be due to reduced motivation from public  Reduction from 33% to 25% of viewership underage age an improvement but does not go far enough

33. The risk of complacency  None of the research is predicated on the content of the ads or their compliance with codes  Mere existence of ads normalises consumption  How to regulate below the line promotions?