1. Skills for Growth Challenges of Skills Assessment and Anticipation Nils Karlson, Associate Professor CEO The RATIO Institute www.ratio.se

2. Two Research Project Skills for Growth 2013-2017 (funded by Swedish Innovation Agency, The Knowledge foundation, Swedish Growth Agency, private business organizations etc.) Occupation, Qualification & Mobility 2015- (funded by European Social Foundation, private business organizations etc.)

3. The Problem Major skills shortages in all private sectors, over the entire business cycle High unemployment, especially among the young, and high welfare dependency Despite massive investments in education over the last 25 years Something must be fundamentally wrong

4. Swedish PISA results Source: Skolverket

5. Average Graduation Age in Higher Education, OECD-countries Source: OECD

6. Overeducated Matched Undereducated Labor Market Matching 1974-2011, among employees Source: Le Grand, Szulkin, Tibajev & Tåhlin 2013

7. Fundamental labor market rigidities … Major problems with quality, efficiency and relevance in the educational systems Tendencies towards academic drift – not enough work-based learning and lack of practical skills Caused by various institutional failures in a rapidly changing world Why?

8. Three institutional failures 1.Decentralization to municipalities and universities in 1990s without coherent systems of quality and skills assessment, as well as skills anticipation 2.Individual choice without sufficient incentives and relevant information introduced 3.Incentive problems in the systems of regulation and funding of educational systems

9. The challenge Culture, norms, institutions!

10. Some policy implications 1.Promote co-production in training between educational system and business sector – the Higher Vocational Educational system a role model 2.Upgrade practical skills through systems of validation and assessment, possibly EQF 3.Support and broaden the systems of skills assessment and skills anticipation 4.Support local and regional systems of assessment 5.Reform the systems of regulation and funding of educational systems 6.Promote pluralism, but with better incentives!