1. UNECE/Eurostat Seminar on Migration statistics, Geneva, 21-23 March 2005 How Do the CIS Countries Estimate Migrants Stock (Do They)? Olga Chudinovskikh Moscow State University

2. Outlines UN approach to migrant stock estimation in the CIS countries: do the UN definitions always guarantee a correct result? Evolution in tradition of migrants’ identification in RF and USSR What data valid for migrants stock estimation do the national censuses (Round 2000) in the CIS countries present? Data sources (related to migrants stock) in the Russian Federation Conclusions

3. UN DESA Population Division: Trends In Total Migrant Stock: The 2003 Revision The United States is the largest recipient of international migrants, with 35 migrants in 2000. It is followed by the Russian Federation (13 million), Germany (7 million), Ukraine, France and India.

4. Estimations for the successor states were derived by taking account of migration flows that occurred among them in 1990-2000, and by considering the number of persons enumerated in RF, but born in other Republics of the former USSR according to 1989 census of the USSR.” ( Source: Keiko Osaki. The International Migrant Stock a Global View. Paper presented at the IOM seminar “Workshop on Approaches to Data Collection and Data Management” Geneva, - 9 September 2003, IOM website). Problematic issue (1): Combination of criteria used for different periods 1990- 2000 (annual statistics data)- crossing the border, for residence (neither citizenship, nor place of birth) Before 1990 –(census data) place of birth (out of the republic) Problematic issue (2): Before the collapse of the USSR it was migration of nationals of the same state born in the same state (major part of cases) Problematic issue (3) Rules of migrants registration and statistical observation were changed in 1996 > underestimation of foreign migrants since 1996 Over- and underestimation of stock

5. (International) migrant definition in the USSR and the RF statistics and scienсe Before 1990- main problems: to decrease migration from ruarl areas and to stimulate migration to the regions of rapid industrial development. No experience of international migration estimation (no special methodology, no special definitions) Demographic encyclopedia published in 1985 defined only “a migrant” as “a person who migrates, i.e. crosses the administrative borders of territories and changes place of residence for more or less long period”. These criteria were used for statistical observation both of internal and international migrants in the USSR and Russia, neither citizenship, nor place of birth criterion is used. Since 2002 data on citizenship of migrants (annual flows)are published in satistics yearbooks. - 1992-1993 – refugees and forced migrants definitions (in special laws), - 2002 – foreign citizens and stateless persons definition (in a special law) - No concrete definiton of an international migrant (Inertia or heritage of the past)

6. Total Population (thousands) Migrant stock Number (thousands) Per cent of population Belarus10 1871 28412,6 Russian Federation145 49113 2599,1 Ukraine49 5686 94714,0 UN estimation of migrant stock in selected countries. Source: UNPopulation Division, DESA,International migration 2002 (United Nations Publication, Sales No. E.03.XIII.3).

7. Place of birth Citizenship Had lived in the place of residence since birth / not since birth If not – since what year – Previous place of residence (Except RF ) In some countries- place of residence at the census moment (Moldova), - If was temporary absent – (period of absence ) (Azerbaijan ), Refugees or deported (Ukraine, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan) + Languages, ethnicity In the RF census program place of previous residence was mentioned only by those who arrived in 1989-2002 and related to the date of the previous census: Where lived in 1989 (Region, Rural or Urban area) Census : the main source of data for migrants stock estimation. Questions related to migration in the CIS Censuses (Round 2000) programmes

8. Population Born in the republic Born out of the rep. Nationals Citizens of the other countries and stateless pers. No answer on citizen ship Armenia Abs.3213,02927,3285,73185,527,50,0 %100% 91,1%8,9%99,1%0,9% Ukraine Abs.48240,943084,75156,247950,0169,10,0 %100% 89,3%10,7%99,4%0,4% Belarus Abs.10045,28886,41158,89934,5107,82,9 %100% 88,5%11,5%98,9%1,1%0,0% Kazakhstan Abs.14953,112839,82113,214867,985,20,0 %100% 85,9%14,1%99,4%0,6% Russian Federation Abs.145166,7Data are being processed142442,41025,41269,0 %100% 98,1%1,0%0,9% Table 1. Basic data on foreigners and foreign born population in selected CIS countries. S ource: National censuses data (Round 2000) (Absloute- thousands )

9. Period of residence criteria (arguments pro): Table 2. Distribution of life-time migrants (born and arrived from abroad) by period of Residence in selected CIS countries Source: National censuses data (Round 2000) Period of residence (years) After the collapse of the USSR Before the collapse of the USSR 5 and < 6 -- 9 10 and moretotal Ukraine Abs. 35112342345143773545.156.240 778.8864.377.354 % 6,8%8,2%84,9%100% 15%85% Belarus Abs. 1988831997388644021.263.023 398.621864.402 % 15,7%15,8%68,4%100,0% 32%68%

10. Chart 1. Distribution of life–time migrants born out of the republic by period of residence in selected CUS countries (source-see table 2)

11. Ethnicity: if it can be a criterion for migrants stock identification? One must be very careful using this criterion RF population – 190 ethnic groups, Ukraine, Belarus population - more than 130 ethnic groups The criterion of ethnicity partially can be applied to some categories of migrants to monitor their presence in the country.

12. Table 3. Percentage and dynamics of titular population in selected CIS countries. (Source - National censuses (Round 2000) data, Statistics yearbook “CIS countries in 2002”) % of titular population Dynamics of titular population since the last USSR census (1989) % of non- titular population Azerbaijan90,6%1,249,4% Armenia99,1%0,980,9% Belarus81,2%1,0318,8% Kazakhstan53,4%1,2346,6% Kyrgyzstan64,9%1,4035,1% Russia- Russuans 1,12 mln, 1,4 mln did not specify ethnicity 79,8%0,9720,2% Ukraine77,8%1,00322,2%

13. Chart 2. Foreigners, foreign born and non-titular population in selected CIS countries- what criteria is the best?

14. The Russian Federation sources of data on international migration : which one to choose for migrants stock estimation?

15. Table 4. Main migration data systems in Russia 2-11- parts of Central data bank of foreigners (in future) Authority Quality of data and methodology Availability 1 Current statistics of migrants (based on registration procedure) – both foreign and internal flows Ministry of home affairs/ Federal statistics service Unsatisfactory, considerable underestimation Available 2 Data on permits on arrival for residence (foreigners) and departure for residence (Russian citizens) Ministry of home affairsModerate. Not processed since 2002. Was partially available up to 2002 3 Data on refugees and asylum seekersMinistry of home affairs (Federal migration service- FMS) SatisfactoryAvailable 4 Data on work permits for foreign employees and Russian citizens l employed abroad via Russian employment agencies Ministry of home affairs (FMS) Unsatisfactory, considerable underestimation Available 5 Data on residence permits and permissions for temporary residence Ministry of home affairs (FMS) No information on methodology Not available 6 Migration cards statisticsMinistry of home affairs (FMS) No information on methodology Not available 7 Border statisticsFederal security service (Federal Border Service) No information on methodology Partially available 8 Data on foreign studentsMinistry of science and education SatisfactoryAvailable 9 Visas and invitations statisticsMinistry of foreign affairs No information on methodology Not available 10 Ministry of Taxes dataMinistry of TaxesNo information on methodology Not available 11 Population CensusFederal statistics serviceSatisfactoryAvailable

16. Full census program (questionnaire) covered: 1. Foreign citizens and stateless persons – residents of Russian Federation 2. Persons officially employed in RF (in Russian and foreign organizations and enterprises) and students - if intended to stay in Russia for more that 1 year 3. Asylum seekers Short census program covered: 1. Foreign residents who stayed in Russia temporarily and intended to stay here for less than 1 year 2. Tourists, patients in hospitals, private guests, transit migrants Main results – 1 mln – citizens of foreign countries, 1,3 mln- did not identify citizenship, 40 thous. – have double citizenship. Categories of foreigners covered by RF Census- 2002 program

17. Official annual statictics of migration. Undrestimation : since 1996 considerable part of migrants (both internal and international) are excluded from statistical observation Since 1996 international (and internal) migrants are registered in the police by Place of residence Place of temporary stay (no time limits) Included into statistical observation

18. Since 2002 international migrants should be excluded from statistical observation (data collected only in administrative sources, not available) 2000. X. - foreigners need to get residence permit to be registered (many migrants from abroad are excluded from observation), 2002- New Law on foreigners’ status – foreigners should not be observed by current statistics (theoretically)- (additional criterion – citizenship). Since 2002 official annual statistics (theoretically) must observe only the RF nationals

19. Table 5. Nationals and foreigners in international migration flows: RF annual official statistics of migration Total RF NationalsWith double citizenship Foreigners Including: Stateless CIS and Baltic countri es Other foreign countries In-migration 200218461216632523847153111394113702976 20031291441087671906017257165117463120 Out-migration 20021066851007325917462638837431327 200394018899714863289326512421154 Net-migration 200277927655931793010685100586271649 200335126187961419714364138605041966

20. Administrative (police) sources. Main definitions of foreigner’s status in Russia (some of them define categories of migrants to be included into migrants stock). 1. Temporary stay : term of stay - by visa expiry term, or <90 days. Not more than 12 months) 2. Temporary resident (<3 years, annual re-registration) 3. Permanent resident ( <5 years, re-registration, number of re- registrations is unlimited) 4. Military status (5 year contract) 5. Special status (diplomats) 6. Foreign employee 7. Refugee According to the Law foreign citizen must be registered in police during three days after his/her arrival. Ukraine citizens – 90 days. Details and variables: information collected about applicant for residence permit Name, sex, date of birth, citizenship, temporary address, marital status, family members having residence permit, place of job, study, source and type of income,, «criminal» background or administrative rules violation experience, moves out from Russia, where, purpose of trip.

21. Work permits statistics: only legal workers > underestimation of irregular migrants, 2003 - 378.000 work permits, stock of irregular migrants - appr. 2 - 5 mln Basic problems (besides underestimation of flows): Some categories of foreign citizens are not included into estimation (Byelorussians) Primary work permits and prolonged permits are not estimated separately Duration of contract is not estimated

22. Table 6. The RF Statistics of forced migrants and asylum seekers :main figures. Previous place of residence (accumulated and registered during the year under review) New place of residence (RF regions) Number of applications for refugee status Number of refugees by place of origin and place of destination Age and sex composition Level of education Ethnicity Etc. 20022003 Accumulated figures of registered migrants by 1 January 2004 since beginning of registration Forced migrants total including: Forced migra nts total including: Forced migrant s total including forced re- settlers refug ees forced re- settler s refug ees forced re- settlers (since 1 July 1992) refugees (since 20 March 1993) Total 2050420453514726466858360.796352.0718725

23. Table 7. Border statistics (available data) : Foreign citizens’ purposes of trip and countries of origin/ destination Country of origin / (destination) 2002 Purpose of trip (entries) ServiceTourismPrivateResidenceTransit Assistant personnel Total Total (entries / (departures) 3014159 3105563 15159067 12338 524335 1493249 23308711 Citizens of : CIS and Baltic countries: 1246973 578249 13951382 11711 429592 838786 17056693 Byelorussia 49667 15631 95602 370 23721 12501 197492 Kazakhstan, etc. 119710 36677 2499082 5425 114599 180500 2955993 Other countries: ….

24. Foreign citizens registration data bank - will it be a register of foreign population? Planned to be created by January 2006, responsible authority – Federal Migration service Stage 1 (Ministry of home affairs data) 1. Migration cards information on arrivals and departures of foreigners 2. Data on refugees and asylum seekers 3. Labour migrants data (work permits data) Stage 2 (Ministry of home affairs data) 4. Residence permits, temporary residence permits and stay permits 5. Information on crimes committed against foreigners and by foreigners Stage 3 (other ministries data) 6. Federal border service data 7. Visas and invitations statistics 8. Customs Committee data 9. Ministry of taxes data 10. Other ministries and authorities data on foreigners Stage 4 Information exchange and distribution (rules are not defined)

25. Surveys: The recent (and, perhaps, the best one) IOM survey: Irregular migrants in Russian Federation (Moscow Migration Research Program 2002 ) Questionnaire – more than100 questions 3034 respondents (including migrants from the CIS countries, Afghanistan, China and Vietnam, etc.), 30% had work permit, 50% had police registration 9 regions (including Moscow, St.Petersburg and Far East region) Estimated ratio of irregular migrants in regional population from 0.5% to 10%. Total estimated stock of irregular migrants - 5 mln. Pedriod of stay? 90% of irregular migrants stock – from the CIS countries Estimated migrants stock of Chinese - 400.000

26. Why data on migrants stock are considered to be important? They are supposed to create a background for the estimation of economic, political and cultural consequences of foreign migrants’ presence in the country, their interaction with local population, etc. There is a viewpoint that migrant stock data are necessary to “monitor the size and composition of population with foreign origin having a long-term view on their integration” (Source: Enrico Bisogno, Presentation “International migration: practices of 2000 Round and issues for 2010”. UNFPA-UNECE-NIDI Training Programme on International Migration 24-28 January 2005).

27. Migrants who moved before the collapse of the USSR (and partially – after) needed adaptation rather than integration: мajority of them spoke the same language, had common cultural roots, were born in the same country and were nationals of the same state

28. Positive: without similar or closer approaches and methodologies of migrant stocks and flows estimation international data comparison becomes problematic. Not so positive: however, in some cases methodology must be more flexible to avoid an oversimplification of the task, especially if the situation is not simple and if we deal with a heterogeneous object. Our opinion upon methodology used for migrants stock estimation in the RF(and other CIS countries)

29. Conclusions No concrete or uniform definition of long-term international migrant in the CIS countries Prevalence of citizenship criterion Significance of period of residence criterion (the RF viewpoint) RF is more likely to exclude migrants who moved before the collapse of the USSR from the stock, in the other CIS countries situation is not clear. Ethnicity can not be (the main) criterion for migrant identification in the CIS countries Basic source of data for migrants stock estimation – Census Data from the other sources (RF case) either not available or not reliable. In RF - the main source of annual data - current statistics on international migration is not reliable for migrant stock estimation. Practical use of migrant stock estimation must be discussed. Historical background of population should be taken into account.