1. 2004-05 Projection Process Presented by the Office of Research and Evaluation

2. Projections What is the Projection Process? What is the Principal’s role in the Projection Process? How were 2004-05 Projections calculated?

3. Projection Process Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Projections are prepared based on historical October PEIMS membership Campuses receive projections for their review and submit requests for changes Requests are reviewed by R&E and recommendations to change/not change are submitted to Finance.

4. Projection Process Step 5 Finance and HR discuss all requests for changes and finalize enrollment projections. Step 4 Campuses receive a letter indicating their request for change was either accepted or denied based on supporting facts.

5. Principal’s Role in the Projection Process Review projections including historical membership and projection results Document any changes in program services or new housing developments Submit changes to projections along with justification for the change to R &E by the specified deadline. Prepare supporting documentation for meeting with HR. The Finance office has the final word regarding your teacher allocations.

6. Projection Methodology How were projections calculated?

7. Past Methodology Principals felt that using linear trends across years did not capture the mobility from grade to grade. This method utilizes only Grade 4 data and predicts a loss of 9 students from Grade 3 to Grade 4. 199920002001200220032004 2005 proj Grade 3 605554555460 Grade 4 60575755545251 Example: Predicting Grade 4 using a linear trend across years

8. Cohort Ratio Model –Survival Rate Current Methodology

9. Cohort Ratio Model The Cohort ratio model was the primary method for predicting membership. The model utilizes historical data to calculate a survival rate (SR) for each grade in order to determine the percentage of students predicted to proceed to the next grade.

10. Survival Rate Calculation 199920002001200220032004 Grade 3 605554555460 Grade 4 605757555452 Calculation of 57/6057/5555/5454/5552/54 Grade 4 Survival Rate Cohort Ratios.951.041.02.98.96.99 Cohort Ratio Model Prediction for 2005 Grade 4: Current Grade 3 * Grade 4 Survival Rate= 60 *.99= 59200559

11. 199920002001200220032004 2005 proj Grade 3 605554555460 Grade 4 60575755545251 1999200020012002200320042005 Grade 3 605554555460 Grade 4 605757555452 Calculation of 57/6057/5555/5454/5552/54 Grade 4 Survival Rate Cohort Ratios.951.041.02.98.96.9959 Survival Rate Linear Trend Method Comparison

12. Other Methods Used for Projections A Diagonal Analysis (DI) was used for all campuses without previous history. (ex. PK-8 campuses) Membership from the previous year (Year Before, YB) was used for campuses/grades with an unstable history of data. (ex. Grades EE and PK) Membership from the previous year (Year Before, YB) was used for campuses/grades with an unstable history of data. (ex. Grades EE and PK) While both the diagonal and previous year methods are rudimentary, at this point it allows for a preliminary projection for these campuses. More statistical methods are being researched in order to fine-tune the process.

13. Unit and Percentage Adjustments Unit and Percentage adjustments were made when known variables were likely to increase/decrease projections. Example 1: New Developments increasing 2005 Projections Example 2: Elementary schools converting to PK-8 will decrease membership at feeder Middle Schools.

14. Projections for Special Populations 2003-04 % SPED Self-Contained * 2004-05 Enrollment Projections = 2004-05 Projected SPED Self-Cont. SPED Self-Contained Membership projections include Bilingual/ESL and Special educations students.

15. Projections for Special Populations Bilingual/ESL Grade 1Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade KGGrade 1Grade 2 2003-04 2004-05 Projection 2003-04 % Bil/ESL * 2004-05 Enrollment Projections = 2004-05 Projected Bil/ESL Grades 1-3 Grades 4-12 Grades PK-KG 2004-05 Projected Bil/ESL2003-04 October PEIMS = Membership projections include Bilingual/ESL and Special educations students.

16. Sample of Projection Layout

17. Closing Remarks All forecasts have several things in common: 1) all are an extrapolation of the past 2) all involve some level of judgment 3) all forecasts have some level of inaccuracy. The real goal in the projection process is to reduce the range of error and monitor the process over time so it can continually be improved.