1. Foundations of Research 1 13. Survey Research This is a PowerPoint Show Open it as a show by going to “slide show”. Click through it by pressing any key. Focus & think about each point; do not just passively click. This is a PowerPoint Show Open it as a show by going to “slide show”. Click through it by pressing any key. Focus & think about each point; do not just passively click. © Dr. David J. McKirnan, 2014 The University of Illinois Chicago McKirnanUIC@gmail.com Do not use or reproduce without permission Part 2

2. Foundations of Research 2 13. Survey Research Part 2 Testing hypotheses with surveys.

3. Foundations of Research 3 Alcohol: Knowledge 1 What is the chemical in alcohol? a) ethanol b) zymase c) dehydrogenase d) nicotine Let’s do our own practice survey! Shutterstock

4. Foundations of Research 4 Alcohol: Knowledge 2 Which of these drinks contains the least alcohol? A = 12 ounces of beer B = 5 ounces of wine C = 1 1/2 ounces of vodka D = 8 ounces of malt liquor E = All are equal Shutterstock

5. Foundations of Research 5 Alcohol: Knowledge 3 How long does it take for alcohol to affect the brain? a) 10 seconds b) 90 seconds c) 10 minutes d) 90 minutes Shutterstock

6. Foundations of Research 6 Alcohol attitudes, 1 Drinking helps me feel whatever way I want to feel. A = agree strongly B = agree C = somewhat agree D = slightly agree E = do not agree Shutterstock

7. Foundations of Research 7 Alcohol attitudes, 2 Alcohol makes me feel happy. A = agree strongly B = agree C = somewhat agree D = slightly agree E = do not agree Shutterstock

8. Foundations of Research 8 Alcohol attitudes, 3 Drinking adds a certain warmth to social occasions. A = agree strongly B = agree C = somewhat agree D = slightly agree E = do not agree Shutterstock

9. Foundations of Research 9 Alcohol behavior, 1 How often do you have a drink containing alcohol? A = never B = monthly or less C = 2 to 4 times a month D = 2 to 3 times a week E = 4 or more times a week Shutterstock

10. Foundations of Research 10 Alcohol behavior, 2 How many drinks containing alcohol do you have on a typical day when you are drinking? A = 1 B = 2 C = 3 D = 4 or 5 E = 6 or more Shutterstock

11. Foundations of Research 11 Alcohol behavior, 3 How often during the last year have you found that you were not able to stop drinking once you had started? A = never B = less than monthly C = monthly D = weekly E = daily or almost every day Shutterstock

12. Foundations of Research 12 Alcohol behavior, 4 How often during the last year have you failed to do what was normally expected from you because of drinking? A = never B = less than monthly C = monthly D = weekly E = daily or almost every day Shutterstock

13. Foundations of Research 13 Knowledge What is the chemical in alcohol Which of these drinks contains the least alcohol? How long does it take for alcohol to affect the brain? Attitudes and beliefs Drinking helps me feel whatever way I want to feel. Alcohol makes me feel happy. Drinking adds a certain warmth to social occasions. Behavior How often do you have a drink containing alcohol? How many drinks containing alcohol do you have on a typical day when you are drinking? How often during the last year have you found that you were not able to stop drinking once you had started? How often during the last year have you failed to do what was normally expected from you because of drinking? Knowledge / attitude / behavior composites Several items assess each Hypothetical Construct we are studying. Here is our survey.

14. Foundations of Research 14 Knowledge What is the chemical in alcohol Which of these drinks contains the least alcohol? How long does it take for alcohol to affect the brain? Attitudes and beliefs Drinking helps me feel whatever way I want to feel. Alcohol makes me feel happy. Drinking adds a certain warmth to social occasions. Behavior How often do you have a drink containing alcohol? How many drinks containing alcohol do you have on a typical day when you are drinking? How often during the last year have you found that you were not able to stop drinking once you had started? How often during the last year have you failed to do what was normally expected from you because of drinking? Knowledge / attitude / behavior composites Several items assess each Hypothetical Construct. Typically we also collect demographics (age, gender, ethnicity…) and other Ψ variables. We choose items based on our Theory about alcohol use and problems. We can simply Describe our data in each category. We might Block the data by important categories of participants Or we can Test Hypotheses about correlations among variables How many students use alcohol at all? Do men have a more positive attitude toward alcohol than women? Here is our survey.

15. Foundations of Research 15 Knowledge What is the chemical in alcohol Which of these drinks contains the least alcohol? How long does it take for alcohol to affect the brain? Attitudes and beliefs Drinking helps me feel whatever way I want to feel. Alcohol makes me feel happy. Drinking adds a certain warmth to social occasions. Behavior How often do you have a drink containing alcohol? How many drinks containing alcohol do you have on a typical day when you are drinking? How often during the last year have you found that you were not able to stop drinking once you had started? How often during the last year have you failed to do what was normally expected from you because of drinking? Research questions: How well do the items within each category correlate? Are they internally Reliable ? Can we construct a Composite Variable from each item set? Blocking Variables : Gender? Ethnicity? Age?... What are the Correlations among composite variables? How much are knowledge or attitudes & beliefs associated with alcohol use? Are alcohol use and problems correlated? Are these effects Mediated by other variables?  Do depression, isolation, or stress make people vulnerable to alcohol use or problems? Knowledge / attitude / behavior composites

16. Foundations of Research 16 Class data, n = 97 Multiple items assessed the Hypothetical Constructs of Alcohol- related information, attitudes, use, and problems. Information: # of correct answers for items 1  3. Attitudes: items 4, 5 & 6. Use: drinking frequency * # drinks / occasion (items 7 & 8). Problems: Items 9 & 10. Information: Mode = 2 items correct. Information: Mode = 2 items correct. Example All figures & tables: David McKirnan

17. Foundations of Research 17 Class survey data, Attitudes To test weather the 3 attitude items comprised a single Hypothetical Construct, we examine their intercorrelations All the correlations and high and statistically significant, so we can combine them into a single composite variable. Example

18. Foundations of Research 18 Class survey data, Attitudes The frequency distribution for the composite attitude variable shows an approximate normal distribution. The Mean and Median are equal, near the center of the distribution The mode reflects a larger block of participants with moderately strong attitudes. Example

19. Foundations of Research 19 Class survey data, Alcohol problems We perform the same operations for items 9 & 10, the alcohol problems measures. The correlation between these items is very high. We can validly combine them into one variable. Example

20. Foundations of Research 20 Class survey data, Alcohol problems Most people report no problems, as shown in the Mean and Median The rest of the distribution shows a strong positive skew. This skew pulls the Mean higher than the Mode & Median. Example

21. Foundations of Research 21 Class survey data, Correlation results The amount of information people have about alcohol is unrelated to their alcohol use or problems The correlations are low Neither is statistically significant. Positive attitudes toward alcohol are strongly associated with alcohol use. … and moderately (statistically significantly) with alcohol problems Example

22. Foundations of Research 22 Correlations and mediators Depression loneliness stress Alcohol use & Problems With more data we could use mediating analyses to develop to test theories about alcohol use / problems Say we find that people who are lonely or depressed (negative affect) have more alcohol use & problems. Why might this be?  People with negative affect may come to expect (hope?) that alcohol will make them feel better.  The attitude may be what actually leads to alcohol use.  Here attitudes / beliefs would mediate the effect of negative affect on alcohol use & problems. Positive attitudes toward alcohol

23. Foundations of Research 23 Correlations and mediators Depression loneliness stress Alcohol use & Problems Using mediating analyses to develop to test theories about alcohol use / problems Say we find that people who are lonely or depressed (negative affect) have more alcohol use & problems. Why might this be?  People with negative affect may come to expect (hope?) that alcohol will make them feel better.  The attitude may be what actually leads to alcohol use.  Here attitudes / beliefs would mediate the effect of negative affect on alcohol use & problems. Positive attitudes toward alcohol Using a mediating analysis to ask “why” is the core step in Theory Development.

24. Foundations of Research 24 Correlations and mediators Depression loneliness stress Positive expectation of alcohol Alcohol use & Problems Survey data are important for developing or testing new theories of behavior Can have high external validity Can model different relations among variables. Problems? The data are correlational and cross-sectional. The causal arrows may go in different directions.

25. Foundations of Research 25 Survey data are important for developing or testing new theories of behavior Can have high external validity Can model different relations among variables. Problems? The data are correlational and cross-sectional. The causal arrows may go in different directions. Correlations and mediators Depression loneliness stress Positive expectation of alcohol Alcohol use & Problems Genetics: Positive alcohol effects & negative affectivity There may be a third variable that we did not measure.

26. Foundations of Research 26 cures Longitudinal studies  Examine changes over time to better determine cause and effect Experimental studies  Simulate and manipulate the predictors, e.g.; Induce temporary stress / negative affect Assess attitudes Assess alcohol use Cures for correlation problems?

27. Foundations of Research 27 We Use Longitudinal data To examine change To approximate “cause and effect” The same for alcohol use and problems. This is our outcome (Measurement version of DV) Negative Affect Research has shown that depression, loneliness & stress are correlated. So, we combine them into a single composite variable. This is our Predictor (Measurement version of IV) Depression Loneliness Stress Alcohol abuse Alcohol use Alcohol problems

28. Foundations of Research 28 Longitudinal data: Path analysis Time 1 (baseline) We test the hypothesis that Negative Affect correlate with alcohol abuse & problems… Negative Affect Alcohol abuse Time 2 (follow-up) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse …at baseline …and at follow-up Data at each time frame are cross-sectional :  We cannot determine if emotions “cause” the alcohol outcome, or visa versa.

29. Foundations of Research 29 Longitudinal data: Path analysis Looking at patterns across time lets us make more sensitive statements. If the measures are reliable Negative Affect at Time 1 will correlate with NA at Time 2. And the same for the alcohol variable Time 1 (baseline) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse Time 2 (follow-up) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse

30. Foundations of Research 30 Longitudinal data: Path analysis To test the hypothesis we look at the “cross” correlations… How strongly does Affect at baseline correlate with Alcohol at follow-up? A strong correlation would tell us that Affect does lead to more Alcohol abuse over time. Time 1 (baseline) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse Time 2 (follow-up) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse

31. Foundations of Research 31 Longitudinal data: Path analysis To test the hypothesis we look at the “cross” correlations… Similarly, how strongly does Alcohol at T1 correlate with changes in Affect at T2? This correlation tells us how much alcohol use leads to negative affect over time. Time 1 (baseline) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse Time 2 (follow-up) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse

32. Foundations of Research 32 Longitudinal data: Path analysis Testing the hypothesis: does Negative Affect ‘cause’ Alcohol use & problems If the correlation between Affect at Time 1 and Alcohol at follow-up is very strong… Time 1 (baseline) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse Time 2 (follow-up) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse

33. Foundations of Research 33 Longitudinal data: Path analysis Testing the hypothesis: does Negative Affect ‘cause’ Alcohol use & problems …and the correlation between Alcohol at T1 and Affect at T2 is relatively weak… Time 1 (baseline) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse Time 2 (follow-up) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse

34. Foundations of Research 34 Longitudinal data: Path analysis Testing the hypothesis …we can conclude that Affect may be a more important “cause” of alcohol use / problems than the other way around. Time 1 (baseline) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse Time 2 (follow-up) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse

35. Foundations of Research 35 Longitudinal data: Path analysis Testing the hypothesis Of course we may find that Alcohol “causes” Affect, not the other way around… Either way, we have a better sense of cause and effect than with cross-sectional data. Time 1 (baseline) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse Time 2 (follow-up) Negative Affect Alcohol abuse

36. Foundations of Research 36 Summary: Testing Hypotheses Surveys typically use multiple items to measure each hypothetical construct Correlations among items tell us if they are reliable in measuring the same construct. We use Mediating Analyses to Test hypotheses about correlations between constructs Build or test theory Cross-sectional analyses are difficult to interpret Causal direction? 3 rd variable problem Longitudinal analyses help us determine causal direction Summary