1. Future technology options for electricity generation: technical trends, costs and environmental performance SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1] [ Sustainable Energy Systems] Wolfram Krewitt, DLR Brussels, 16.2.2009

2. Objective support the representation of technology development time dynamics in long term energy scenarios  characterisation of emerging electricity generation technologies with respect to long term future technical, economic and environmental performance

3. technologies covered in NEEDS RS1a Advanced fossil fuels (incl. CCS) Hydrogen technologies Fuel cells Off-shore wind Photovoltaic Concentrating solar thermal power plants Biomass Advanced nuclear ocean technologies

4. methodology Technology foresight analyse possible technological futures in connection with scenarios about energy systems and related societal developments Experience curves analyse cost trends of future energy technologies Life cycle assessment quantification of environmental burdens from future technologies based on dynamic LCA (‘environmental learning curve’) external costs quantification of external costs of future technology configuration based on future LCA inventories

5. technology futures depend on socio- economic framing conditions ‘pessimistic scenario’ Socio-economic framing conditions do not stimulate market uptake and technical innovations. ‘optimistic-realistic scenario’ Strong socio-economic drivers support dynamic market uptake and continuous technology development. It is very likely that the respective technology gains relevance on the global electricity market. ‘very optimistic scenario’ A technological breakthrough makes the respective technology on the long term a leading global electricity supply technology.

6. future off-shore wind technologies 2050 ‘pessimistic’-16 MW turbine, guyed foundation -Carbon fibre tower -75% carbon fibre + 25% natural fibre blades -Gearbox upscale ‘realistic- optimistic’ -24 MW turbine, floating foundation -Gearless turbine -Carbon fibre lattice tower -Co-existence with water turbine/wave generator; shared cables to shore ‘very optimistic’-32 MW turbine -Hydro-windturbine -Off-shore ‘energy landscape’ Source: NEEDS, DONG Energy

7. history of wind energy technology development 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1980198519901995200020052010 rotor diameter in m 0.050.30.51.324.55MW

8. concentrating solar thermal power plants dispatchable large scale grid connected solar electricity generation electricity generation today 800 GWh/y Several power plants under construction

9. CSP technology developments

10. ocean energy technologies (examples) Pelamis 750 kW (4 articulated tubes; d = 3.5 m; each 40 m long); 2 MW pilot plant deployed 2004 in Portugal Wave dragon

11. future cost developments Three complementary approaches: Bottom-up assessment of cost development Experience curves Expert assessment of long term cost developments (interviews)

12. progress ratios for new energy technologies Source: NEEDS, L. Neij

13. PV technology development pathway Source: NEEDS, Ambiente Italia

14. PV learning curve model (‘optimistic-realistic’ scenario) f ixed learning rate for PV modules (20%) (market penetration of thin films after 2010, and shift to third generation devices after 2025) variable learning rate for electrical BOS: -20% until 2010 -10% 2011-2025 -5% after 2025 variable learning rate for mechanical BOS: -20% until 2010 -10% after 2010 variable allocation of mechanical BOS to PV for building integrated PV: -100% until 2010, then -1% each year to 85% in 2025, fixed after 2025 Source: NEEDS, Ambiente Italia

15. future costs of building integrated PV Source: NEEDS, Ambiente Italia

16. environmental burdens from full life cycle life cycle inventory data on unit process level for each technology; by technology scenario and by base year (‘today’, 2025, 2050) future configurations for key background processes (e.g. transport, production of iron and steel, copper, aluminium, flat glass, etc.) energy mix scenarios  centralised LCA data processing at esu-services  final results available in web-based LCA database

17. Comparison present, 2025, 2050 1,800 kWh/(m2*yr) on tilted roof, south-oriented 4,6 7,0 8,2 33,0 3,0 12,3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 single crystalline present c-Si ribbon 2025 CdTe 2025c-Si ribbon 2050 CdTe 2050Concentrator GaInP/GaAs 2050 g CO2 / kWh future PV life cycle CO 2 -emissions 20252050 Source: NEEDS, Ambiente Italia

18. life cycle CO 2 emissions g/kWh today 2050

19. technology specific external costs ‘generic’ external cost estimates for future electricity generation technologies in Europe based on life cycle inventory data and unit damage cost estimates (from RS1b) significant uncertainties in the field of climate change damage costs

20. quantifiable external costs of future technologies (2050) ct/kWh

21. conclusions potential for technical innovations offers broad range of development options policy settings trigger innovation and technical development emerging energy technologies have a significant potential to reduce costs and environmental impacts external costs of future low-carbon technologies seem to be relatively low compared to private costs ‘total costs’ as a one-dimensional decision criteria might be misleading (large remaining uncertainties in quantifying environmental and societal externalities)

22. Thank you very much for your attention! contact us: wolfram.krewitt@dlr.de or visit the websites: www.dlr.de/tt/system www.needs-project.org Acknowledgements: European Commission, 6th framework program Research teams of NEEDS Research stream 1a