1. Reg Watson Professor Fisheries and Ecological Modelling Exploring the supply of seafoods for a changing world The Future of Marine Ecosystems 6 October 2015, Hobart Search Reg Watson fisheries

2. Seafood – the common questions o What is it? (What’s the catch?) o Where did it come from? o Is it safe? o Did its capture/production hurt the marine environment? o Will there be enough for all of us in the future? 2 REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

3. Solar powered seafood o Like (almost) all other biological generation in the marine environment seafood that we eat is produced by solar powered primary production o Some places on earth bring together the ideal conditions for this o We harvest from various levels in the food pyramid o Life’s efficiency is not perfect so the large but finite inputs must be shared with all life dependent on the oceans (directly or indirectly) 3 REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

4. Finite Energy Inputs = Finite Outputs 4 Modfied from http://www.realmagick.com/primary-productivity/ REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

5. Food web – nature’s inefficiencies 5 REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

6. Tasmanian coastal marine food web 6 Watson, R. et al. (2012) Ecosystem model of Tasmanian waters explores impacts of climate-change induced changes in primary productivity. Ecological Modelling, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.05.008 REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

7. 7 McKinnon, A.D., Williams, A., Young, J., Ceccarelli, D., Dunstan, P., Brewin, R.J.W., Watson, R., Brinkman, R., Cappo, M., Duggan, S., Kelley, R., Ridgway, K., Lindsay, D., Gledhill, D., Hutton, T., Richardson, A., J. (2014) Tropical Marginal Seas: Priority Regions for Managing Marine Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function. Annual Review of Marine Science 6, 1-23. We take our pound of flesh Population Pressures REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

8. 8 Swartz, W., Sala, E., Tracey, S., Watson, R., Pauly, D. (2010) The spatial expansion and ecological footprint of fisheries (1950 to present). PLoS One 5, e15143. We take our share of marine production Primary Production Required (PPR)

9. <1%>10% 0510203050+ c ab d Watson, R.A., Nowara, G., Hartmann, K., Green, B.S., Tracey, S., Carter, C.G. (2015). Marine foods sourced from further as their use of global ocean primary production increases. Nature communications. Source and Consumption 1950s 2000s 1961s 2009 PPRkg per capita SourceConsumption REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

10. Seafood Trade Networks – linking to sources Watson, R.A., Green, B.S., Tracey, S., Farmery, A., Pitcher, T.J. (In Review) Provenance of global seafood Fish and Fisheries. 70s 90s Canary CurrentHumboldt Current REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

11. Australia has ‘Regional Pressures’… 11

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13. Watson, R.A., Nowara, G., Hartmann, K., Green, B.S., Tracey, S., Carter, C.G. (2015) Marine foods sourced from further as their use of global ocean primary production increases. Nature communications. At Full Capacity – what about the future? 20% 10% Sourcing DistanceArea versus pressure Global pressureDemand 10% 30% REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

14. What we have learned… REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES o Seafoods (wild and farmed) are sourced from farther away o Area of oceans used is increasing, as is the level of intensification o Projected demand cannot be met without improved aquaculture methods or significant changes to marine systems

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16. Historical – our fishing legacy 16 Watson, R.A., Pitcher, T.J., Jennings, S. (Submitted) Plenty more fish in the sea? Fish and Fisheries. CodHerring REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

17. INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES 17 Watson, R.A., Pitcher, T.J., Jennings, S. (In Review) Plenty more fish in the sea? Fish and Fisheries. Historical flow of marine foods

18. 18 33% in feeds 100 tonnes annually (wild catch) 35% Fish Meal 15% Fish Protein in Diet Follow the Fish 65% eaten directly Other uses… Part of invited paper by Science (Policy) (In Prep) led by Julia Blanchard (IMAS). REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

19. 19 15% 35% 65% 33% 100 tonnes annually Fish Meal Follow the Fish Pets Fertilizer Beef & Milk Pork Chicken 33% 100 M t 1 trillion eggs 22 B (3 for each human) (Lawler 2015) REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

20. Crazy projections ?… Thoughts for Future Projections o Fish meal and oils from wild landings will continue to be important in animal feeds for years o Geo-engineering will be attempted to modify climate with implications to ocean production o Aquaculture fed by solar/other sources through GM bacteria (likely animals raised will be GM) – much will be moved on-shore where land is available – much will be closed- circuit (with some energy and nutrient input) o ‘Natural’ seafood will be very limited per capita o High-energy inundated coasts will supply energy but also support types of marine food farming (like the east coast of the US) o Autonomous ‘platforms’ will produce power and food at sea (submerging when conditions require) o Food will be ‘rethought’ after major population-pressure and climate-change exacerbated – think ‘Soylent Green’ the 1973 film o All marine areas will be ‘multi-purpose’ and usually include food production, often desalination and energy production 20 REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

21. Our Future as Waterworld? ‘ Tambak’ aquaculture - Ujung Pandang, Indonesia 1992 21 Reg Watson REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES

22. WE HAVE SOME DECISIONS TO MAKE… 22 REG WATSON INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ANTARCTIC STUDIES