1. National Institute of Economic and Social Research EU migration & the UK labour market Jonathan Portes December 2015 www.niesr.ac.uk Twitter: @jdportes www.niesr.ac.uk www.niesr.ac.uk

2. 2004: Labour market access for the A8 Myth that decision was based on Dustmann (2003) “forecast”. 3 key drivers: Political/foreign policy Administrative/practical Economic/labour market But undeniable that flows were much larger than anticipated by government.

3. Leading in turn to major change in composition of UK workforce and population

4. But UK still only roughly average in EU terms

5. However..

6. What do we know about labour market impacts? Dustmann, Frattini and Preston (LPC, 2007) Portes and Lemos (2006, 2008) Manning, Manacorda and Wadsworth (2006) Nickell and Salahadeen (2008) Reed and Latorre (2008) MAC (2012) Lucchino, Portes and Rosazza-Bondibene (2012)

7. So where do we stand? Considerable consensus among labour market economists (Wadsworth, 2010, 2014, 2015; CREAM, 2014) Little or no impact on unemployment/employment: no study has found statistically significant negative impact of EU migration. Probably some relatively small negative impact on wages at the bottom of the distribution

8. Caveats No/small average impact does not preclude significant offsetting positive and negative impacts No impact on wages/employment does not exclude significant impacts on labour market institutions, structures and practices (Heather’s talk to follow) Relatively little research using post-2010 data especially on wages

9. New (preliminary) analysis using NiNos & Parliamentary constituencies

10. New (preliminary) analysis: low pay

11. National Institute of Economic and Social Research EU migration & the UK labour market Jonathan Portes December 2015 www.niesr.ac.uk Twitter: @jdportes www.niesr.ac.uk www.niesr.ac.uk