1. American Unipolarity and the Rise of China
Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 3, 2011

2. Realist worldview

3. Why power matters
Offensive Realist
Defensive Realist

4. What states do
Balance
Bandwagon
Buck-passing
Chain-ganging

5. Why polarity matters More stable – less prone to war
Bipolar orders are simple to manage.
Multipolar orders can slip into war due to ‘chain- ganging’ (WWI) and ‘buck-passing’ (WWII).

6. Bound to Lead (Nye, 1990) USA EU Japan Strong Medium Weak
Source of power
USA EU
Japan
Basic resources
Strong
Military
Medium
Weak
Economic
Science
National cohesion
Universal culture

7. European hegemons The Hapsburg Empire (Charles V and Philip II)
Napoleonic France
Victorian Britain
Nazi Germany

8. Wohlforth’s ”big 3” World system is unabiguously unipolar.
Unipolarity is prone to peace.
Current unipolarity is stable.

9. Extent of American unipolarity
2 – 1 = 1?
Quantitative + qualitative material advantages
Largest high-tech economy
Expenditure on R&D = rest of G7 combined

10. Unipolarity = peace No hegemonic rivalry
International institutions and hegemonic self- restraint (Ikenberry)
Social foundations of hegemony (Reus-Smit)

11. Why US unipolarity is stable
Totality of power gap
Geography – ‘stopping power of water’
No rising challengers: EU, Japan, China

12. Soft balancing
‘Actions that do not directly challenge U.S. military preponderance but that use nonmilitary tools to delay, frustrate, and undermine aggressive unilateral U.S. military practices.’
Logic: containing U.S hegemonic power
Trigger: unilateralism under Bush
Soft balancing strategies: territorial denial, entangling diplomacy, economic strengthening, and signaling resolve

13. Much ado about nothing..

15. ‘Back to the future’: the world in 2025..
‘…will be a global multipolar one’
China and India in C18th: 30% and 15% of global wealth
China = world’s second largest economy
Chinese problems: failing social security net, poor business regulation, hunger for foreign energy, corruption, and environmental devastation

16. Long-range forecasting: reasons to be cautious
Leaders and their ideas matter
Economic volatility and political change
Geopolitical rivalry and discontinuities

17. Revisionist state?
Revisionist states value what they covet more than what they currently possess
They will employ military force to change the status quo and extend their values
Randall Schweller, ‘Bringing the Revisionist State Back In, International Security 19: 1 (1994)

18. Naval balance of power USPACOM China Large deck carrier 6
Small carrier 10 1
Warships 58 78
Nuclear subs 34
Conventional subs 62

19. Implications of Chinese military modernisation
Disrupt US freedom of movement in the region
Narrow US strategic options
SecDef Robert Gates (2009)

20. Hey big spender

21. Keeps on growing

23. Bad debts
US current account deficit = 1.4 of global GDP and China current account surplus = 0.7 of global GDP (2007)
Sept 2008, China replaced Japan as largest foreign holder of US debt (= $1.5 trillion or 46% of US debt)
Daniel Drezner, ‘Assessing China’s Financial Influence in Great Power Politics’, Int Security 34: 2 (2009).

25. ‘Responsible power?’ Deputy Sec of State Robert Zoellick (2005).
‘It is time to take our policy beyond opening doors to China’s membership into the international system. We need to urge China to become a responsible stakeholder in that system.’
Deputy Sec of State Robert Zoellick (2005).

26. China as a ‘social state’
1. Participation in int institutions
2. Compliance with int norms:
(sovereignty, free trade, non-prolif, HR)
3. Attitude towards the ‘rules of the game’
A. I. Johnston, ‘Is China a Status Quo Power,’ Int Security 27: 4 (2003)

27. Future looks bright…?