1. The MJO and Arctic Air Temperatures Gabriel A. Vecchi and Nicholas A. Bond JISAO, University of Washington and NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Madden-Julian Oscillation connects to DJF Arctic Air Temperatures. O(3-10 Degrees C) Statistical connection is significant and robust. Both radiative and advective processes appear to drive air temperature changes. Vecchi, G.A. and N.A. Bond 2003: “The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Surface Air Temperatures”, submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett.

2. Introduction MJO is dominant mode of large-scale tropical intraseasonal variability. Connections have been found to precipitation along west coast of USA. e.g. Higgins and Mo 1997, Mo and Higgins 1998, Jones 2000, Bond and Vecchi 2003. There are circulation anomalies in high- latitudes. e.g. Mo and Higgins 1998, Bond and Vecchi 2003.

3. MJO and Pacific NW Precip.

4. Composite MJO Z500 Anomaly (m)

5. MJO Index 850 hPa winds from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (post-1979) 1 st and 2 nd EOFs of Intraseasonal near- equatorial wind combined to generate MJO index (based on Shinoda et al. 1998, Bond and Vecchi 2003) Divide MJO cycle into 8 Phases, based on angle of EOF1 and EOF2. Index available online at: http://ferret.pmel.noaa.gov/mjo

6. Composite wintertime MJO 850 hPa zonal wind and OLR anomalies. MJO composite

7. Arctic Air Temperature Data Daily minimum temperature data from stations in Alaska, Canada and Keflavik, Iceland. (1979-2002) Daily mean temperature data from stations in former U.S.S.R. (1979-1991) Daily mean temperature data from station in Sermilik, Greenland (1979-2000).

8. Location of station data used in analysis

10. MJO and North American SAT December-February Alaska, Canada, Sermilik (Greenland) and Keflavik (Iceland) data over 1979- 2002. Composite for each MJO Phase SAT Anomaly. Estimate significance using Student’s-t test at 90%. Also composite NCEP/NCAR extended reanalysis 500 hPa height and 700 hPa specific humidity anomalies.

19. Phase 5 Composite Circulation anomalies consistent with radiative and advective processes controlling SAT anomalies. Cool (Warm) SAT under low (high) 700 hPa humidity. Dry (cold) air over Alaska associated with flow from Siberia. Moist (warm) air in Canada associated with poleward flow.

20. MJO and Global Arctic SAT December-February Alaska, Canada, Sermilik (Greenland), Keflavik (Iceland), and former USSR data over 1979-1990. Composite for each MJO Phase SAT Anomaly. Estimate significance using Student’s-t test at 90%. Also composite NCEP/NCAR extended reanalysis 500 hPa height and 700 hPa specific humidity anomalies.

29. Phase 7 Global Composite Circulation anomalies consistent with radiative and advective processes controlling SAT anomalies.

30. Phase 2 Composite

31. Composites are robust (stationary) Over N. America composite is generally the same for periods 1979-2002, 1979- 1990 and 1991-2002 Over USSR composites ~same for 6 year subperiods of 1979-1990 (not significant)

32. There are also circulation anomalies over northern Europe

33. Connection appears limited to northern winter

34. Summary Madden-Julian Oscillation connects to Arctic Air Temperatures. –O(3-10 Degrees C) Statistical connection is significant and robust. Both radiative and advective processes appear to drive air temperature changes. Association between MJO and Arctic SAT could be exploited for outlooks in 1-3 week timescale. Vecchi, G.A. and N.A. Bond 2003: “The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Surface Air Temperatures”, submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett. Contact: bond@pmel.noaa.gov or vecchi@atmos.washington.edubond@pmel.noaa.govvecchi@atmos.washington.edu

35. Caveats MJO definition used here is diagnostic, not prognostic…need to somehow forecast MJO. Monitored real-time at CPC. Extrapolations from current state being made by Matt Wheeler at Australia’s BOM. Limited period of analysis: 1979-2002 for North America 1979-1990 for former USSR) Period of analysis dominated by warm ENSO and positive PDO conditions

36. Future work…. What mechanisms connect tropics to Arctic? What is sensitivity of mechanisms and connections to background state? Example of Arctic Oscillation:

37. MJO SAT signal is on same order as AO signal

38. AO Appears to impact character of MJO related signal Phase 2 Temp and Z500 Composites

39. AO Modulates MJO associtations in global Arctic

40. Summary Madden-Julian Oscillation connects to Arctic Air Temperatures. –O(3-10 Degrees C) Statistical connection is significant and robust. Both radiative and advective processes appear to drive air temperature changes. Association between MJO and Arctic SAT could be exploited for outlooks in 1-3 week timescale. Vecchi, G.A. and N.A. Bond 2003: “The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Surface Air Temperatures”, submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett. Contact: bond@pmel.noaa.gov or vecchi@atmos.washington.edubond@pmel.noaa.govvecchi@atmos.washington.edu