1. Assessment of the Bulgarian General Transport Master Plan On behalf of the European Commission, DG Regional Policy Hans Vogelaar, ECORYS Meeting Monitoring Committee Operational Programme Transport Pravets, 7 June 2011

2. Objective of the assessment Second opinion on the Bulgarian General Transport Master Plan Tasks –Review GTMP, coherence with EU Transport Policy and national sector objectives –Evaluate results 2000-2006 and 2007-2013 programming periods –Consult relevant stakeholders in Bulgaria Recommendations using GTMP for preparations 2014-2020 programming period

3. GTMP objectives Technical data, models, multimodal studies Medium and long term investment programming Funding Operational Programme Transport 2007 – 2013 –Identifying strategic priorities –Programmes and projects –Resources transport sector, financing opportunities incl. PPP –Institutional requirements, reform Carried out by AECOM Limited, 2008 - 2011

4. EU Transport Policy 1.Policy/strategy development (DG MOVE) 2.Funding: Structural and Cohesion (DG REGIO) 3.Environment (DG ENV) OPT and GTMP superficial in addressing EU policy issues White Paper 2011 “Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area”: – Resource efficient means of transport – Clean urban transport – Technologically innovative (intelligent) transport systems – User-pays, polluter pays principle, internalisation external costs – Private finance initiative New OPT 2014-2020 to reflect White Paper’s comprehensive approach

5. Programmes ISPA (2000-2006) and ERDF/Cohesion Fund (2007-2013) Administrative Capacity –Institutional framework, enabling –Project (Cycle) Management, supported by –Transport Planning, knowledge, skills, competences ◦Traffic forecasting, modelling ◦Project Appraisal (CBA, EIA) GTMP ◦Pipeline Management, Prioritization Obstacles –Retendering, redesign, new options, variants –Disputes between employer and contractor –Pre-financing requirements –Land acquisition

6. GTMP results Strong points Model and data management technically sound Comprehensive approach: investment, maintenance and operations, administrative and organisational measures Project pipeline mechanism useful Weak points Reference EU Transport Policy, strategic base Project appraisal: CBA approach Funding chapter, PPP information Institutional & human resources development

7. GTMP delivery Considerable delay endangers GTMP’s effectiveness Little stakeholder involvement during model and data base development Systems and data files (excl. model software) handed over to MTITC but not implemented Limited transport planning capacity/capabilities at MTITC Serious risk: GTMP heritage not operational for preparations next programming period Missed opportunity: Master Plan acting as catalyst of transport planning capacity development

8. Stakeholders’ involvement Criticism Involvement development GTMP limited, little feedback No discussion alternatives/options No capacity building in organisations to use GTMP system soon Project development Inadequacy own administrative capacity, continuity programme/project preparation/implementation JASPERS’ support considered indispensable for years to come Planning ahead Potential GTMP: project selection, appraisal and prioritisation instrument Private sector interest in next OPT development

9. Conclusions & recommendations GTMP support medium and long term investment programming? Overall conclusion: GTMP limited applicability Report: Rigid project listings and priorities, partly outdated and disputed, no opportunity for further option analysis Tool for project selection, appraisal and prioritisation: 1) full operational implementation GTMP models and data bases not feasible in view of required capacities/ capabilities MTITC 2) No time to be instrumental preparing new OPT 2014- 2020 But GTMP useful as a stepping stone, using what can be made operational at reasonable short term (action plan)

10. Towards Action Plan New OPT 2014-2020 to reflect White Paper’s comprehensive approach Adequate transport planning capacity core competence MTITC Dedicated unit in MTITC to manage planning instruments and data bases: traffic forecasting (models), project appraisal, project pipeline management GTMP as stepping stone, emphasis on GTMP pipeline management module: project listing, screening, prioritization MTITC to coordinate transport planning requirements and make data and instruments accessible to beneficiaries Coordination knowledge management financing (PPP!!) with Ministry of Finance Institutional and human resource consequences TA to further prepare the pipeline management module in short term.